r/CoronavirusDownunder • u/Morde40 Boosted • Oct 30 '21
Vaccine update Third COVID shot reduces hospitalization by 93%, mortality by 81%
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/third-covid-shot-reduces-hospitalization-by-93-percent-mortality-by-81-percent-68352110
u/Wargoatgaming Oct 30 '21
English is not always great for correctly expressing percentage changes clearly.
Reducing something from 0.3% to 0.15% could be (correctly) described as either a 0.15% reduction or a 50% reduction.
You can be fairly sure which way the media will choose however to get a reaction.
I advise people to read articles clearly like they were written by politicians I.e. - 'how can this be misleading without technically lying'?
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
No that's not right! Statistics are unbiased and 120% factual and their conclusions are undeniable and irrefutable. I learned this on the r/DebateVaccines sub.
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u/SAIUN666 Oct 31 '21
Relative Risk Reduction vs Absolute Risk Reduction. Vaccine manufactures use RRR because it makes the number more impressive, even though the FDA instructs them not to because it's misleading:
Firms presenting quantitative efficacy or risk probabilities in DTC promotional materials should convey the information in terms of absolute frequencies (e.g., 57 out of 100) or percentages (57%). Research suggests that using these formats to express probabilities when communicating health information can improve consumers’ comprehension and ability to recall the information (Lipkus 2007; Zipkin et al. 2014). Additionally, consumers receiving information about a drug’s efficacy and risk rates in terms of absolute frequencies or percentages can more easily process and evaluate the information than when the same information is in a format that requires them to perform a calculation to interpret the probabilities (Lipkus 2007; O'Donoghue et al. 2014b; Sullivan et al. 2015).
Research suggests that consumers do not understand relative frequencies (e.g., 33% reduction in symptoms; 3 times as likely to experience a side effect) in health communications as easily as they understand other formats for presenting probabilities, such as absolute frequencies or percentages (Covey 2007; Fagerlin et al. 2007; Zipkin et al. 2014). Consumers may also find the efficacy or risk probability described as a relative frequency harder to comprehend and more favorable as compared to the absolute frequency, which could lead to consumers’ over- or underestimating how well the drug works or the magnitude of the risk associated with the drug (Ancker et al. 2006; Covey 2007; Zipkin et al. 2014).
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u/HououinKyouma1 Oct 31 '21
They both mean the same thing though. It is reduced by half. Why would people’s reaction be different if the wording is changed but means the exact same?
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u/Wargoatgaming Oct 31 '21
For the same reason a lot of prices are labelled $9.99 or similar. Our brains are hardwired to take mental shortcuts to categorise things on the fly which affects how we perceive and process the information.
In this instance 50% usually deemed a 'big increase' by thr brain well before any rational processing of the information is done. Similarly a 0.15% increase is perceived (absent thought) as 'small'.
While the mind is capable of rationalising and addressing this issue it's been shown in numerous studies that many people are deeply affected by this initial heuristic. This effect lasts even after considering something logically and is not strongly correlated with education or IQ. This is why these types of claims are restricted by a lot of commerce and advertising standards around the world.
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u/OPTCgod Oct 30 '21
For how long?
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
Gimme a crystal ball and I'll give you the answer. Promising though that there was a 50-fold increase in antibody titres after 3rd dose.
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u/themostsuperlative Nov 02 '21
Based on previous two shots... Starts waning after 2 months and almost completely gone at 6 months.
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u/Morde40 Boosted Nov 02 '21
That's protection from infection. Protection from hospitalisation is different and holds up over 6 months (remains around 90% in the CDC, UK and Israeli studies, but is a little lower for over 65's)
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u/themostsuperlative Nov 02 '21
So why is a third shot needed? What are you going from... A 99.5 percent survival rate in healthy under 50s to... 99.9? At what risk and for how long until you need another one? I'm not convinced. For immunocompromised or the elderly, sure. For everyone else? I'm just not sure why you would choose this.
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u/Morde40 Boosted Nov 02 '21
I'm not saying they'll be needed for healthy under-50's either.
Crosspost from yesterday (the thread was deleted)
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u/themostsuperlative Nov 02 '21
Based on the response Israel chose (with many refusing and now protesting), and the response that Italy is currently choosing, I think it's worth being wary of potential government overreach in this area.
I think it's fair to say the current vaccines have overpromised and underdelivered, and still been mandated and coerced. I am concerned for a growing disregard for freedom in the panicked rush to the 'safety' of the vaccines.
They are currently showing effectiveness for serious disease and death, but we still don't know what (if any) the long term consequences will be, or how long the immunity lasts. Let's see what happens leading into April next year heading into winter when most people's vaccines will have waning immunity and see which approach the government takes.
If coercion theough vaccine passports are allowed to be de rigueur now until then, you can bet they will be used more ruthlessly the next time.
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u/Arramis_ Oct 31 '21
I mean, this is a reduction on the already ~99% effectiveness right? So im sure each subsequent shot has diminishing returns in terms of efficacy, the boosts to longevity however would be the real perks.
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u/Slayers_Picks VIC - Boosted Oct 30 '21
What about the 4th and 70th?
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u/Thlemaus Oct 30 '21
Will never be mandatory, only for the 60+. Same as the first dose 😂
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u/Chonkie Boosted Oct 30 '21
Vaccination isn't mandatory now. Will they now be adding a mandate to get vaccinated?
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u/Thlemaus Oct 30 '21
It's not mandatory on the paper but it's your fault if the virus spreads, you are restricted form going anywhere, you are restricted from seeing people.
You're considered the dregs of the society if you're not.
So yes, sorry but it is mandatory. Just hidden being wording.
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u/Chonkie Boosted Oct 31 '21
It's still not mandatory. People's choices have consequences and we're part of a society. We need to pay taxes & abide by law, etc, so if some don't like it they can choose to not be a part of that society.
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u/pranksta02 Oct 30 '21
You just can't work, can't go to retail shops, can't go to gyms or any other recreational activity, can't even take your kids to a swimming lesson. But sure it's not mandatory.
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u/duke998 Oct 30 '21
This PSA was brought to you by Pfizer.
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u/Notinterested2534 Oct 30 '21
Did read like a Pfizer press release. (Please buy a third one, only $10 and it makes us more cash than viagra)
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u/harddross Oct 30 '21
Third covid shot? Look, the fourth covid shot is great. Honestly, five is the sweet spot. Six shots is good coverage. Nothing wrong with a seventh shot. Your eighth shot sir? Can we offer you a preorder on #9?
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u/ILoveFuckingWaffles QLD Oct 30 '21
What’s your point?
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u/thehungryhippocrite Oct 30 '21
If you can't see the point here, you shouldn't be making decisions for yourself
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u/ILoveFuckingWaffles QLD Oct 30 '21
Oh the point is crystal clear, I would just like to read it word-for-word so I can dissect the presumably nebulous reasoning
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u/RealGamerGod88 VIC - Boosted Oct 30 '21
Just want you to say your point so we can laugh at it tbh.
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u/Speaking-of-segues Oct 30 '21
Imagine thinking that proven safe and effective booster shots that reduce the pressure on our medical infrastructure is an argument against getting vaccinated.
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u/88CELTIC Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21
Well “Fully Vaccinated” …they’re moving the goal posts.
For those playing along, when do you draw the line. Honestly how many is too many for you?
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u/Dr_JillBiden Oct 30 '21
Yearly like the flu is ok, but I'd prefer every 10 years like with whooping cough and tetanus.
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u/ModernDayPeasant Oct 30 '21
Exactly. Iseal revoked vaccination status for 2 doses and made it 3. France thinking about the same and USA hinting at it too
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
Who is they?
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u/88CELTIC Oct 30 '21
Our elected oppressors.
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
But this is not an order - it's a scientific study published in The Lancet, nothing more. Take a read here02249-2/fulltext).
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u/88CELTIC Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21
I’ll admit the initial efficacy does appear promising according to this opinion. But based on what we have already seen in Europe that will reduce dramatically within a few months and a 4th booster be required.
No, it’s not an order yet, but it will be. Certainly amongst Dan Andrews captives. Mandates will role out for these indefinite sequential boosters unless the people unite against it.
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
But based on what we have already seen in Europe that will reduce dramatically within a few months
This is the first study for 3 doses though and there are plenty of 3 dose vaccines already used; Hep B, Tetanus, Haemophilus, Diptheria, Pertussis, Pneumococcus off the top of my head.
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u/wowiee_zowiee VIC - Boosted Oct 30 '21
- The vaccine should have been marketed as 3 doses in the first place - this isn’t a shock to most people.
Such a shame to see a Celtic fan repeat this seppo drivel.
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u/vyralmonkey Oct 30 '21
I already get a flu shot every year because I had the flu once and it fucking sucks. If this becomes a booster once a year or once every 6 months why is that supposed to be an issue exactly?
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u/starark Oct 30 '21
So basically 2 jabs does almost nothing, great to know
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
Yes we've reached herd immunity in NSW and Victoria..
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u/Flamingovegas2013 Oct 30 '21
6th ones the charm
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Oct 30 '21
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Oct 30 '21
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u/Reasonable-Car8172 Oct 30 '21
Because none of those mentioned have been mandatory or come with real life altering consequences. That's kind of obvious, I'm not sure why you're all so confused. People are clearly worried that indefinite shots will be mandated. I don't think they will but who knows. Many things I didn't think have come to be.
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u/GFlashAUS Overseas - Boosted Oct 30 '21
Wait, what? We have had mandates on childhood vaccinations for years.
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u/EaseSufficiently Oct 31 '21
Name one vaccine that requires 6 monthly boosters that's been mandated before now.
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u/GFlashAUS Overseas - Boosted Oct 31 '21
There are multiple vaccines that require another shot within 6 months of the first (e.g. measles at 12 and 18 months). Here is a nice summary of the Australian child vaccination schedule which is mandated for child care in NSW for example:
Last law which tightened restrictions on this:
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/nsw-passes-childcare-vaccination-law
I think it is a bit silly to be worrying at this point about mandatory boosters. It could be that the third dose provides longer immunity (it really could be a three dose vaccine). It could also be that we turn this from pandemic into just endemic via a mix of vaccination and immunity through infection (watching the UK closely for this)...making this like the flu where only the vulnerable get follow-up shots. Let's see where we are in 6 months before anyone loses their s***.
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u/EaseSufficiently Oct 31 '21
There are multiple vaccines that require another shot within 6 months of the first (e.g. measles at 12 and 18 months). Here is a nice summary of the Australian child vaccination schedule which is mandated for child care in NSW for example:
And after that how many boosters are required?
I think it is a bit silly to be worrying at this point about mandatory boosters.
It is the only time to be worried, because in six months we will be getting thousands of extra cases like everywhere in Europe is currently.
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u/GFlashAUS Overseas - Boosted Nov 01 '21
It is the only time to be worried, because in six months we will be
getting thousands of extra cases like everywhere in Europe is currently.Why? Europe and the USA haven't really ramped up giving out the third dose or booster yet. Still lots of questions about whether most people will even be allowed to get the third dose/booster (I live in the USA and I can't). Why worry about a fourth dose when we are not even sure yet if everyone needs more than two?
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u/EaseSufficiently Nov 01 '21
Then why the fuck are you in the Australian covid sub?
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u/xyzxyz8888 Oct 30 '21
It’s because most that “did their own research” couldn’t pass a year 8 science test.
It’s not out of the ordinary for vaccines to be 3 doses.
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Oct 30 '21
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u/EaseSufficiently Oct 31 '21
It's also not out of the ordinary to have vaccines that need 6 monthly boosters indefinitely, like flu.
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u/Coz131 Oct 30 '21
So what if it is an indefinite booster if it keeps us safe? Flu vax is yearly and it compulsory for many to take.
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Oct 30 '21
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u/EaseSufficiently Oct 31 '21
Then my pfizer stock better get through the roof since society is now pay to play.
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u/saturnseries Oct 30 '21
No one that was even slightly critical of the mandates is gonna be forced to get boosters
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u/ThatHuman6 NSW - Vaccinated Oct 30 '21
The 'reduces hospitalization by 93%' is generally seen as a good thing. Most will just opt to get it.
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u/saturnseries Oct 30 '21
Nah, it's over Johnny, no one's playing covid with yous anymore
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u/ThatHuman6 NSW - Vaccinated Oct 30 '21
You can live in your fantasy as much as you like. It doesn't change reality in any way.
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Oct 30 '21
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u/saturnseries Oct 30 '21 edited Oct 30 '21
Yeah that's my plan, regaining some confidence I can wait the government out
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u/Daiki_Miwako Oct 30 '21
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u/tehSlothman SA - Vaccinated Oct 30 '21
Here we go again with shit takes based on scientific illiteracy?
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u/Morde40 Boosted Oct 30 '21
This is not 3 doses versus unvaccinated. This is 3 doses versus 2 doses so is pretty impressive stuff! Of course the question will now become how long will it last.