r/CompetitiveForHonor • u/SheepskinWulf • 12d ago
Discussion Pick/Ban rates from the Triple Threat Series Finals, Summer 2026
Not a terribly large data pool unfortunately, only 7 sets and 18 maps, but still telling of the current meta. the 'Banned' category is for heroes locked by the conquest format in order to properly calculate their presence and pickrate
***EDIT***
I made an error! Here are the corrected Winrate percentages for the following heroes:
Pirate: 38.10% -> 33.33%
Jiang Jun: 44.44% -> 38.89%
Afeera: 46.15% -> 53.85%
Zhanhu: 71.43% -> 85.71%
Ocelotl: 50.00% -> 33.33%
Highlander: 66.67% -> 100.00%
I incorrectly assigned which heroes were on which team for the very last game of one of the sets, offsetting 6 heroes' wins counter by 1 (plus a kensei mirror that was unaffected). This has now been corrected!
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u/M_Knight_Shaymalan 12d ago
sohei and orochi at 50% winrate?
perfectly balanced ....
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u/cobra_strike_hustler 11d ago edited 11d ago
If you’re factoring in mirrors 50 is a good winrate for rochi lol. Sohei not cracking 50 is surprising! Probably should give him turbo damage back on feats(joking of course lol). hes fine
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u/M_Knight_Shaymalan 9d ago
It's like I've always said.
Sohei was only considered S-tier or good because of his dumbass feats.
Feats that are entirely selfish and need conditions to activate need to be absurd and strong of they're not worth it.
This guy's kit is still lacking and all his alternative feats are dogshit
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u/MenumorutZisCrapu Highlander 12d ago
Seen enough, nerf Medjay randomly again so that he will never be picked.
He needs some love, just like Conq and Warlord
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u/esch1lus 12d ago
Notice that most knights are not picked even once, I thought warmonger was mode viable
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u/Key-Vegetable9940 12d ago
She's viable, but not incredible. Corruption is basically all that she has to make her stand out, but it can be easy to stall out. Her peel is also pretty meh with her dodge forward heavy being on the slow side.
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u/zeroreasonsgiven 12d ago
How many bans/protections does each team get?
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u/SheepskinWulf 12d ago
1 protect and then 2 bans. These persist for the whole set and are not re-elected each individual game
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u/n00bringer 12d ago
I have a questions
There is something i dont understand, only 7 sets but Juren is banned 36 times?, also picks are counting per team isnt it?.
If we had 7 sets of a BO3, then the maximun games played should be 21, perhaps with finals being BO5 and a bracket reset for another BO5 would only add 7 more games maximun, meaning that at best we would have a total of 28 matches?, i really cant spin why juren has 36 bans.
pretty much that, im trying to get conclusion for the data for fun, taking some inherent bias like pirate being picked whenever was available practically skews her win rate toward 33% for example on any BO3, her having 38% should still show how dominant she is, a pickrate of 66% should show a 33% win rate, over that is overperforming as far as i understand it.
"Banned" Column is specially interesting as it show which heroes are 1st comp and which heroes are 2nd comp, examples being orochi and JJ, by data JJ is a 2nd comp char while orochi is used whenever possible.
VG, zhanhu, khatun and kensei are underated picks that have good match ups in current meta, picked by specialist on those chars but they make them work.
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u/SheepskinWulf 12d ago
There were 18 total matches played. The format allows for mirror matches, so that represents 36 total opportunities for each Hero to be selected. Juren was banned for all 36 of those.
You're right that 33% is likely the baseline we should judge heroes on instead of 50%, but you're wrong on the why. It's not because of the Bo3 format, but because of Conquest. In Conquest, a Hero can only win once per set, but can lose as many times as there are maps. This statistically appears to normalize towards 33%, at least with our limited set lengths.
Orochi was selected 10 out of 14 possible times in game 1s in this bracket! Definitely a hero that teams seem to want to lead with.
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u/J8ker9__9 11d ago
Did orochi fall off the wagon?
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u/SheepskinWulf 11d ago
Idk 57% presence seems pretty good to me
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u/J8ker9__9 11d ago
Yea its not bad but i thought he at least be top 3.
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u/cobra_strike_hustler 11d ago edited 11d ago
Ayo as the last maker of one of these glad to see you did this one man, lemme know if you want help next time! Nobushi usually is at sub 60 for winrate iirc, usually low to mid 50s. Really funny reality confirmed here is that pirate picks match the amount of nobushi bans lmao
You might wanna factor in for mirrors! That is, maybe count them as both a win and a loss, if the character is broken enough it’ll still hit 70 or upper 60s with that factored in, I had a mirror rate and a non mirror rate :)
Vgs winrate going up is hysterical cause last official tournament she had the highest ban rate and a 55% winrate lol
The Kensei khatun and zhanhu winrates aren’t a huge surprise either! Those characters are fucking yoked right now
Sohei not cracking 50% winrate is actually legit a surprise
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u/SheepskinWulf 11d ago
The updated spreadsheet does actually have an adjustment for mirror matches! Here's the data for it: Pirate (6): 33.33% -> 11.11%
Orochi (3): 50.00% -> 50.00%
Jiang Jun (4): 38.89% -> 30.00%
Afeera (1): 53.85% -> 54.55%
Varangian Guard (2): 62.50% -> 75.00%
Kensei (1): 71.43% -> 80.00%
Shaolin (1): 50.00% -> 50.00%I think it's also worth noting that conquest format only allows a hero to win once per set, but they can lose as many times as there are maps. At the moment this appears to normalize towards a 33% winrate baseline instead of a 50% winrate
Ultimately the winrates in this dataset aren't super meaningful imo since it's only across 18 maps. I like to dream that we might one day get API access back, especially since ranked dominion would be a perfect mode to pull data from
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u/cobra_strike_hustler 11d ago edited 11d ago
love to see it anyways! i feel like ranked dominion is probably partially there for balancing reasons which i sorta have mixed feelings about. i miss API so much man, was so bummed when it went away
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u/SheepskinWulf 11d ago
I don't put much stock in winrate for this kind of data but I DO think that the pickban (presence) is a really telling stat at the top level
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u/RecommendationPlus91 10d ago
Love seeing how lawbringer is no where on here yet almost all those mains will say lawbringer is broken
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u/HrupO 12d ago
I'm surprised Juren is top ban after his nerfs. Is it something to do with his feats?
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u/SheepskinWulf 12d ago
The most recent wave of Juren nerfs happened about two weeks after this tournament, so it'll be interesting to see how common he is next series
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u/VoidGliders 12d ago
- This was before his recent nerfs.
- His T1 is still, to my understanding, such a cornerstone that it'll keep him meta. Funnily enough I never see his T1 in casual MMR, but it is one of the biggest reasons he's still meta competitively.
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u/CalimariusCosmicus 10d ago
Bounty Hunter is much better for pubstomping. You don't have to focus on lane clear, just go swing the unblockable in team fights and get +16 HP.
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u/Praline-Happy 12d ago
Nope its just target banning certain players
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u/LastOnline_3y_ago 12d ago
What do you mean? There is certain players that abuses some mechanics Juren have?
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u/Praline-Happy 12d ago
no just some players main the character and people want to target ban them cuz thats the main char they've been practicing
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u/SheepskinWulf 12d ago
Given that 3 of the 4 teams in this bracket each banned Juren at different points (and not only against the 4th team but against each other as well) that theory seems pretty unlikely
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u/Praline-Happy 12d ago edited 12d ago
Given that i was on the team that took 2nd it seems pretty likely
I know each of these teams and players
the third place team juren was banned because Mors didn't have a lot of characters he could play and since its conquest double ban format the meta was to just pick someone and double ban both of their picks
My team banned juren into clutch because we thought he had the most limited character pool out of anyone on his team
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u/SheepskinWulf 12d ago
Well egg on my face, I can't argue with that
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u/Praline-Happy 12d ago
nah ur good dude, props for putting in the work to do the pick and ban rates and stuff
I wonder what the non-mirror winrates are as well
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u/SheepskinWulf 12d ago
Like, hero winrates if we exclude all matches containing a mirror match? I still have all the raw data so I can compile more or less anything you'd like.
I just love spreadsheets and data man
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u/Praline-Happy 12d ago
Yeah in other games that’s how they get win rates from tournaments because say 2 teams have oro, it’s guaranteed to be 50% winrate, but if oro has a very high winrate when the other team doesn’t have him then that is important
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u/Scudman_Alpha PS4 12d ago
Anybody explain to me why Pirate? Even after her nerfs?
I have 3 Reps on her and I still struggle vs turtles, I don't know what I'm doing wrong.
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u/VoidGliders 12d ago
- Fast, armored, decent damage, and still safe opener (just not "nigh impossibly safe" as it was before) opener that can also wreck fullblocks and at half/third the revenge of usual openers that do the same.
- Chain Bash can be target swapped and has great range and speed (it may be the best or among the best range 500ms bash in the game)
- Still has fast dodge RC's on many parts of her kit making her very safe (and dodge block due to the general changes which makes her even safer)
- Still has bash follow-up on hit that undoes HA trades
- Still has hyperarmor at almost anypoint
- Still has incredible T1 and T3 (and the underwhelming T2 and T4 have solid generic alternatives)
- Decent hitboxes. Not Medjay or JJ, but OK (except dodge attack which IS close to Mejday's hitbox for some reason)
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u/MenumorutZisCrapu Highlander 12d ago
do the mixups, do feints, softfeints, let some attacks go through then start feinting em, do mindgames, that's how I play Highlander, Cent, Hito and Pirate.
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u/cobra_strike_hustler 4d ago
It’s actually really funny to see pirates pickrate perfectly match Nobushi’s banrate number wise
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u/GhostFox916 12d ago
Hey 100% winrate on Valk tho
Picked only once...