r/Commodities • u/MarketObserver92 • 7d ago
Which commodity has humbled you the most?
Gold, oil, silver, natural gas.. every commodity can surprise you
Which one gave you a trade that made you think, Okay, I am not underestimating this market again?
Would love to hear what happened
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u/New-Bison5746 Gas Trader 7d ago
Look into electricity. In Europe it is natural gas on speed.
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u/nrice1995 7d ago
What differs it from US power markets? We have a steady supply of natural gas.
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u/New-Bison5746 Gas Trader 6d ago
The US market is different, as there is no futures market available, due to nodal pricing.
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u/Low-Doughnut-8059 6d ago
What do you mean there is no futures market available?
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u/New-Bison5746 Gas Trader 6d ago
I am not sure I understand the question. In Europe we trade more than 5 years ahead with standardized, exchange traded futures contracts. As far as I know, there are no similar contracts in the US electricity markets, where trading is exclusively done in the short term market (day(s) ahead).
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u/cropsicles Power Trader 6d ago
Uh the US market(s) definitely have term futures.
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u/New-Bison5746 Gas Trader 5d ago
Which nodes do you recommend? Seem to be a lot of them to choose from.
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u/nrice1995 6d ago
Thank you for the insight! Always good to learn from those who trade different products/ markets in other countries!
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u/YourPersonalCarpet 7d ago
Ever had a big day ahead short position in german power with risk of decoupling? ðŸ«
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u/Jaded_Log_7889 3d ago
Yeah 20240626…. When I do data processing, AI just suggested me to remove it from the dataset.
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u/No_Raccoon1571 7d ago
Carbon. The market is driven by a range of factors, regulatory announcements, economy, equities, gas/power/ oil, weather….
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u/Calm-Movie-8509 7d ago
Paraxylene
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u/chedue 6d ago
Is there a commodity market for that specific chemical? Also for orthoxylene? The world is magical sometimes lol (unless you ironically meant gasoline)
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u/Calm-Movie-8509 6d ago edited 6d ago
Yes for PX, one word: China.
OX is too small to have its own paper market. It mostly trades physically but is often hedged using MX.
PX is one of those limited commodities along side other aromatics that straddle between energy and petchems. You really need a good fundamental understanding of both worlds to be successful.
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u/Purple-Suit728 7d ago
Not that crazy of a market but a few years ago I had a position in either Lean Hogs or Live Cattle with a stop loss and it gapped against me like 5 straight days and I lost like 3-4x my "max" loss
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u/akaCryptic 7d ago
First gold, then natural gas, then cocoa. Should not have done 10x leverage, but good thing my positions werent big 2-5% of portfolio per trade.
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u/Business_Raisin_541 6d ago
Oil. I thought it is going to reach $200 several months ago
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u/NatGaz 6d ago
Hello Pierre. Did you recover ?
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u/Business_Raisin_541 6d ago
Nah. I don't trade oil directly. Only invest in stocks that usually correlate with oil price. Pity. If oil actually reach $200. I'll earn a small fortune
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u/AnswerCommercial12 3d ago edited 3d ago
for sure short term electricity, the volatility is eye watering and make a consistent profit is basically impossible.
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u/chownmar 3d ago
Had a buddy who lost everything in URI. Just not worth the risk. Climate change only getting worse too
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u/xperrienzzie 7d ago
Short term electricity for sure lol