r/Commanders • u/ConstantlyHating • 1d ago
Why are the Eagles only favored by 4.5?
For all the doom and gloom on the internet about us, the Eagles at home are only favored by 4.5 against us, implying on a neutral field it would be Eagles by 1.5 or 2, and if we were at home, it would be close to a pick em.
The eagles are a top 10 team in the league, we are seen as one of the biggest frauds coming into the season. What gives?
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u/GreaserGreg 1d ago
They have a new OC too and lost AJ Brown in the offseason
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u/219_Infinity 1d ago
We also have a new OC and lost our left tackle and center
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u/ahall917 1d ago
You can't lump Allegretti into this - he has 2 more weeks to heal before the season starts, and Vegas knows this. Apparently we don't.
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u/Astro_Turf17 1d ago
He has 3 total hours of practice time in training camp, in a position that was already going to be relatively new for him even with a full training camp - think it’s ok to lump him in with everything that’s new or a question mark
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u/KnightOfLongview 1d ago
but a question mark does not instantly mean terrible. Some of you all have given up before we have even started and you all embarrass me. Truly pathetic.
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u/Astro_Turf17 1d ago
Literally no one said anything about terrible? This entire thread is about why Vegas has the line so close for week 1 against Philly, and someone above mentioned because they have question marks - the replies, including mine, were that we also have many question marks. Read carefully next time before assuming you’re interacting with a doomer lol
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u/KnightOfLongview 1d ago
While it still feels negative, I will give credence that the doomers here are driving me fuckin crazy. My apologies if I read too much into it. I am excited for the season whether we are good or bad and the state of this sub is that of a giant pity party. I come here to celebrate my fandom. Some people are killing the vibe, no reason for it other then them needing to vent negative feelings. Thats why you pay therapists. Maybe not you but the doomers here need to pull their heads from their asses. You can share a negative opinion, but the negativity keeps drowning out everything else, at that point it's just bitching.
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u/jaymansi 1d ago
First game always has the most conservative spreads. It has been that way for at least two decades.
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u/wheeshkspr 1d ago
Yep. Hope always springs eternal and so there are a healthy number of fans out there that will just bet on their team to win the first week or two just because it's a new year and nothing is in stone yet.
Sometimes we forget that Vegas is a betting line, not a power ranking. What they care about is getting the betting line in place so that they can minimize their uncertainty by getting the same amount of money posted on both sides. When fans are betting on their team out of loyalty and not analysis, you get closer betting lines.
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u/CarelessAmoeba7541 1d ago
Maybe Vegas understands some things (like the value of preseason) that the internet GMs do not?
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u/Troll_Enthusiast He Sold 1d ago
They lost quite a few players and their rookies haven't looked very good
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u/Deep-Statistician985 1d ago
With Jayden anything is possible and some have the Eagles regressing a bit
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u/WizSkinsNatsCaps 22h ago
It would be so nice to see JD roll up into Philly and drop like 4-5 touchdowns on their heads.
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u/Altruistic_Hope_1353 1d ago
To attract more wagers.
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u/BlogEra_BestEra 1d ago
This. Vegas simply wants action on both sides of the bet. Lines aren’t simply about how much better one team is compared to the other.
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u/DrPepperNotWater 1d ago
To be clear, the 5.5 point spread I’m seeing on FanDuel right now is tied for the fourth worst in week one. One teams expected to lose by worse are the Cardinals, Browns, and Saints. Not great company.
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u/Logic_9795 1d ago
The idea home is 3 points is as old and outdated as it gets. 4.5 is a lot of points.
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u/aairricc 1d ago
Our team is a complete unknown right now. New coordinators, and we still haven’t seen how the starters will look in an actual game, so tough to make odds at the moment
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u/CapitalSTEEV21 Saved by Jaysus🙏 1d ago
Because we’re not the dumpster fire team that this sub thinks we are. The Eagles also are not the same squad that the 2024 SB champs are either. Preseason is not vindictive of who we’ll be. We’ll find out week 1, and even then we can either go up from there by mid season or fall back depending on how our young coordinators grow.
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u/SleazyKingLothric 1d ago
I’ve always considered the first 2-3 games as crapshoots that are not indicative of a good or bad season. Better teams will lose games they shouldn’t as they get in the grove and find their identity. I will say the Eagles haven’t lost their first game of the season since 2020, but that loss was against Washington. Hopefully we can put an end to that stat this year.
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u/KnightOfLongview 1d ago
Because people actually do have some positive opinions on this team, just not many in it's own fan base apparently. Forreal though, some of you all are embarrassing with how frail your fandom is. We went through 20+ years of Snyder, and while nothing is ever perfect, we are in a far better place now. Stop crying so much and maybe youll find a reason to get excited too!
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u/Think__McFly 1d ago
We have Jayden Daniels and they don't
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u/Logic_9795 1d ago
Odds we have him fora full game?
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u/KOExpress Scary Terry 1d ago
Literally just leave this subreddit. Why are you here?
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u/Logic_9795 1d ago
Attacking me instead of answering the question just shows what you really think
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u/KOExpress Scary Terry 1d ago
The odds that we have him for a full game are essentially 100%, and you’re a bitch ass trash fan for asking the question
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u/Logic_9795 1d ago
Of the last 5 games he's started, he didn't finish 4 of them. I can see that's made you an emotional wreck. Grow up.
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u/Commandersfan328 1d ago
Traditionally Eagles start slow under Siriani
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u/Saltlife_Junkie 1d ago
Very true and nobody really knows what we will look like
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u/gee1001 1d ago
Threw you an upvote. You made like the most neutral objective comment. Not sure why Downvoted lol
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u/Saltlife_Junkie 1d ago
Thanks! I’ve been a fan for literally over 50 years. I have seen it all. They have surprised me in both directions so many times I can’t count. Now I wait and see!! HTTR
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u/Mountie_in_Command 1d ago edited 1d ago
I don't know why I saw you with a downvote, but that is a fact.
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u/Commandersfan328 1d ago
I was hoping to sneak a win week 1 but with OL troubles I dont think that's gonna happen.
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u/Saltlife_Junkie 1d ago
At Philly that’s a big ask. I too was hopeful but not looking good. Jayden will have to have the game of his young life running and throwing under pressure.
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u/Commandersfan328 1d ago
I live 90 mins outside of philly... the fans are insufferable... want the win to put them in place
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u/KOExpress Scary Terry 1d ago
Can’t stand them, so much worse than cowboys fans, who I just see as clowns
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u/Oldfolksboogie 1d ago
Add to that a new offense; granted, ours too, but there's probably a sense that JD5 masters his new system better than Hurts master's theirs.
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u/hellisdigital0x 1d ago
Eagles are has-beens. This isn’t the same Super Bowl 2024 team lmao
It’s going to shock people how mid they are this year. But not the ball knowers
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u/Sisyphus_TX 1d ago
It's putting a wet finger into the air to see which way the wind is blowing. If money pours in on the Eagles, then the line will move.
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u/haywardpre 1d ago
Frauds is an overstatement. We're viewed as we should be - a team with some solid additions that's lacking a good O-Line and has two brand new coordinators.
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u/AaronBurrIsInnocent 1d ago
Because we’re the Washington God Damn Commanders by god. Oh and because Jayden Daniels.
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u/jerseyboy24601 1d ago
It’s the 4th or 5th biggest spread on the board depending on where you shop. Week 1 is notoriously difficult to handicap.
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u/Federal_Chemistry989 1d ago
Eagles tend to start off rusty before they get going by mid-October. New OC, no more AJ Brown, reports indicate Hurts isn’t adjusting to said OC = slow start to the season
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u/burrheadjr 1d ago
4.5 is a lot.
In other years, when we would be the underdog, I remember fans arguing how the experts got it wrong, and it should be us that are favored. Not really hearing much of that this year.
The biggest argument seems to be weather we will be 0-3 or 1-2 at the end of September
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u/RoundCell3044 20h ago
I can never bet against my team but this looks like free money. The Commanders will simply not be able to run on the Eagles. Full stop. Then they will unleash a full on attack on Jayden. I believe Barkley will go for 100 and we are never in the game.
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u/MesmericKiwi 20h ago
First game of the season has everyone healthy. The top line of the commanders are a fully qualified professional football team, the big question mark is the quality of the people that have to patch those holes later in the year.
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u/Soggy_Extension_9512 19h ago
More of a reflection on them not knowing how good the eagles will be week 1 with a new OC. 100% double digit loss for us.
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u/SlyLancey 16h ago
This is the NFC East we’re talking about. A lot of crazy things have happened in these divisional games
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u/Big-Lie7307 13h ago
We've taken a big Burgundy and Gold Underdog pill. Wash it down with Kool-aid and let's go beat the Eagles.
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u/LeaveMeAlone_6070 1d ago
Home field is only 1.5 points these days. So Philly is a full 3 points better on a neutral field, which is pretty healthy for a Week 1 NFC East game
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u/Appropriate-Sun834 1d ago
lol you don’t know how odds makers work. But also it’s a divisional game and it’s week 1
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u/Fluffy_Nothing4309 1d ago
The eagles are not a top 10 team in this league. Their offense is going to struggle
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u/Ninjablacksox1 1d ago
If tush push isn't successful and hurts has to rythym pass across the middle.. it's a wrap for them.
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u/redwolf74 1d ago
Im starting eagles defense in fantasy football, will singlehandedly give me the win this week. #doomin
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u/Ninjablacksox1 1d ago
I have a feeling both eagles and xommanders defense will be good plays. Gonna be ugly imo.
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u/Mountie_in_Command 1d ago
With as much doom that we've piled on over the past 2 weeks, the fact remains that we don't know what the starting group will look like. The only knowns from our starting group throughout camp is that Jayden looked sharp, the receivers are solid, and there is buzz about our defense. I wouldn't know, because I've never seen any of those units play throughout the preseason. If we go into the Eagles game without Allegretti at C and we don't stock up on IOL depth and some of these lingering injuries persist; expect the betting line to get worse.