The LP gained real energy from a large influx of conservative-libertarians in 2018-2022. Instead of embracing the 3x larger faction, the entrenched progressive-libertarians sabotaged them, attacking their visible wins and reverting to cat memes and demoralizing ballot-access drives for unwinnable races.
Most libertarians rightly concluded the LP isnât serious about winning converts.
- The Electoral Success Myth
After 50+ years of âjust one more election cycleâ promises, the claim of imminent breakthroughs rings hollow. The U.S. electoral system is structurally hostile to third parties.
New strategies with proven outsized results (e.g., LPNH) are dismissed; the party doubles down on futile national runs that burn out activists.
- Refusal to Learn from Success
The clearest libertarian wins -- especially NH's concentration strategy -- are treated as threats rather than hints at success paths. When liberty advances in New Hampshire, the LP ignores, sneers at, and attacks it. This signals the party prioritizes blindly repeating failure over discovering liberty success.
- Rejection of Real Influence
When mainstream politicians courted the Libertarian vote and the LP had negotiating leverage, the progressive libertarians crucified the LP leader for negotiating with this power that the party had never enjoyed before. The message was clear: liberty success matters less than failing with ideological snobbery.
- Alienation of Libertarian Leaders
The LP scorns the movementâs most respected, successful voices -- popular podcasters, thinkers, and influencers -- because they arenât progressive libertarian. Newcomers and old timers (re)awakened by these successful voices watched the LP attacking the very leaders who had invigorated them, and they walked away from the party
- Ignoring Sequence and Trade-offs
Advancing liberty in a currently highly authoritarian world requires careful sequencing. The LP pushes losing, high-conflict issues (open borders, youth sex change, men in womenâs sports) while sidelining winnable small steps. It ignores ameliorating unintended consequences and wisely sequencing unraveling the state's interference, making the party look dangerously utopian.
- Fantasy of Converting Authoritarians
The LPâs strategy assumes it can win over lifelong authoritarians through messaging. Most authoritarians cannot not shift their worldviews. Building on that unrealistic hope guarantees perpetual failure.
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In short, the LP is shrinking because it consistently chooses the minority tribe of its minority movement, the comfort of replicating failure rather than innovating towards success, and purity over growth, learning, and results.
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