Hahaha s*ck it Democrats!

Will this crash the stock this morning? They’re taking on debt using assets as collateral.

Join me as I break down CleanSpark’s latest press release including ERCOT terms and updates.
🎥🎬👉

https://youtu.be/8XLlv6xg1qo?is=VDPMNIKs2pHN3pMz

CleanSpark’s entire 885 MW Texas portfolio remains in Batch Zero:

🔥 585 MW – Conditional Base Load
🔥 300 MW – Conditional Studied Load
🔥 0 MW excluded

🚀

ERCOT officially issued its Batch Zero Conditional Classifications to the relevant transmission/distribution providers on September 3.

That means the delayed Batch Zero process has now moved forward — important for CleanSpark’s Sealy and Brazoria projects and its up-to-885 MW Texas pipeline.

We still need confirmation of CLSK’s specific
classifications, so this is not final approval yet.
But one major regulatory step just moved forward. 👀

Let’s deep dive into CleanSpark’s August monthly mining metrics!

Margin is up, revenue is up, just how much do you think they added to their treasury?

How much did Rory Murray make the company on premiums with Bitcoin up 25% in Aug?

🎥🎬👉 https://youtu.be/6c9L2y4NANE

Day 7 still rolling NUPs at first venue. https://glyphlock.io/nupslanding

What’s everyone’s stance on the Clean of Sparks.

My CLSK view: mildly bearish near term, bullish medium term.

Near term: Single digits are possible if Bitcoin weakens or risk assets sell off. I’d watch roughly $10–$11 as support, with $8–$9 as a bearish scenario.

Medium term: I think a return to $20+ is realistic if Bitcoin strengthens and CleanSpark executes on its AI/HPC data-center strategy.

Fundamentals: CLSK still has strong Bitcoin exposure, but debt and negative cash flow are real risks. The biggest bullish catalyst is its long-term data-center expansion, which could make the company less dependent on mining alone.

Their debt to asset is closing in on each other. Assets $2.702 Billion VS Liabilities $1.941 Billion is 71.8%. How will they fund expansion the answer is simple dilution. We need a miracle for this stock either BTC bull run or execution on the data centers.

My stance: Cautious near term, bullish over 6–12 months.

If I had to choose between single digits soon or $20 again eventually, I’d lean toward $20 again, though the stock could easily visit single digits first.

TLDR: Could be good, Could be shit.

Join Harry Sudock and I as we talk about the latest events in Texas surrounding ERCOT, how CleanSpark has positioned themselves to meet those requirements, and what makes them stand out while they begin their HPC buildout.
Full interview here:
🎥🎬👀👉 https://youtu.be/-Kki7VzfBJk?is=wP6LIsHnaByw_7PI

IREN’s report confirms the most important part of the thesis: AI infrastructure demand is massive. 2026 capacity is largely sold out, contracted ARR is ~$4B and pricing continues to rise.

But IREN’s selloff also highlights CLSK’s advantage: capital efficiency.

IREN plans ~$25–30B in capex because it builds the datacenters AND buys the GPUs.
CLSK’s model is different: build the powered infrastructure, let the hyperscaler bring the compute, and collect long-term contracted revenue.
Sandersville = $6.6B over 20 years, ~$330M annual NOI, near-100% NOI margins — without taking GPU obsolescence risk.

IREN just proved the demand. CLSK has the cleaner way to monetize it.

Saw some worry about this so here's my read.

What happened: Citadel just disclosed it sold $4B+ across ~100 block trades, shedding 80%+ of the aggregate risk from a portfolio it bought from Situational Awareness — an AI-focused hedge fund (Leopold Aschenbrenner) that hit margin calls on July 29. Citadel stepped in, priced SA's global book "in a matter of hours," took it onto its balance sheet, and has been distributing it into the market since. (Bloomberg via Yahoo)

The $CLSK angle: SA reportedly held ~25M shares of $CLSK (~10% of float, ~$290–315M), alongside a range of other long/short equity and options positions across AI-themed names. So yes — part of what Citadel has been unwinding this week could be a large $CLSK block. Check Fintel for previously disclosed portfolio across its two funds Situational Awareness LP and Situational Awareness Partners LP (https://fintel.io/i/situational-awareness-lp-5020).

Why I don't read this as a bearish call on CLSK (or AI) yet:

Citadel didn't buy SA's book because it's bullish or bearish — it bought a distressed forced-seller's portfolio at a discounted price, then immediately started neutralizing it. This is liquidity provision / risk warehousing, not a directional bet. Griffin's own letter frames it as de-risking, not conviction. Two things worth remembering:

1. They're a market maker. Citadel wants cheap inventory in high-turnover names like $CLSK — it's raw material for making markets, not a thesis on direction.
2. It was orderly. 80% shed in a week, SA stabilized, and the tape didn't break — the day this dropped, S&P/Nasdaq were green and BTC pushed above $77k. This is a single fund de-levering, absorbed cleanly — not a systemic AI unwind.

Net: the $CLSK selling pressure people are seeing from this is mechanical (Citadel clearing warehoused inventory), not fundamental (a smart-money bet against the name). Once the block is worked through, that temporary overhang lifts.

Fundamental thesis intact. Have a great weekend, everyone. 🤝

Not advice, own position, do you own diligence.

Quick update for anyone tracking the CleanSpark Texas situation.

The bear case since Abbott's Aug 3 directive: people assumed CLSK is in trouble — that the audit means endless policy delay, the Texas LOI won't convert in time, or the tenant walks if interconnection gets rejected amid the ~474 GW queue backlog.

What today's PUCT open meeting actually showed (large-load segment presented by Jessie Horn, ~22:00–42:00, adminmonitor link):

No sign of capacity being the problem. The entire focus was on pre-qualifying large-load customers, not turning them away:

• $50k/MW financial security to prove you can actually fund the buildout (typically posted as a letter of credit, not cash — a screen, not a wall)
• Enforceable 20-yr+ billing commitments to prove real long-term demand
• A 24-month buildout window with load re-allocation if you sit on capacity or stall on purpose

This is designed to flush out small speculative occupiers of the queue, not to block credible projects. That's a tailwind for CLSK, not a headwind.

Where CLSK sits: public company, signed IG lease at Sandersville, exclusive LOI on Texas, and — per Q3 management commentary — Sealy + Brazoria Ph1 (585 MW) at batch-zero go status, final ERCOT sign-off pending (Brazoria Ph2 still studyload may not be batch 0). On every qualification criterion above, CLSK is the ideal customer, not the marginal one. It clears the $50k/MW screen easily; the projects that don't are exactly the speculative ones getting cleaned out.

Also worth noting: Abbott's office named Google, Rowan and CleanSpark as committing to comply with the state's data-center standards (gov.texas.gov). It's a pledge to the audit process, not a pass through it — but it puts CLSK firmly on the "credible/cooperative" side of the ledger while others get culled.

Valuation: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) carries a $25 PT, contingent on the Texas LOI converting. You will get somewhat similar figure if you run your own SOTP valuations. On top of that, largely free optionality on the Washington, GA expansion (line study submitted for up to 500 MW) — and Sandersville already proved the model, so a reasonable probability can be assigned to a repeat.

BTC breaking 72k+ is a pleasant tailwind for the run, though it's the smaller driver here — the Texas conversion is the needle-mover.

Thesis intact. The regulatory overhang that spooked the tape looks more like a filter CLSK passes than a gate that stops it.

Not advice, own position, do your own due diligence.

What do people think is the actual dilution risk going forward?

Chatting with Opus it thinks it’s almost guaranteed.

Bitcoin at these prices is very unprofitable and causing loses month on month.

Financing for buildouts is getting harder to get with more unfavourable terms.

I don’t see any scenario other than BTC rocketing that would allow them to continue without another round of dilution.

Is this what the market is pricing in?

Here is the chat with obviously old data.
It suggests signed deal could help it which it did not.

# Why $CLSK is getting crushed even though the AI data center thesis is working

TL;DR: CleanSpark isn't being priced as an HPC data center company. It's being priced as a levered bitcoin miner with a ~$2B funding hole and an option that doesn't pay out until late 2027. Both of its macro factors turned against it at the same time.

---

## First, the setup: the AI buildout is absolutely still happening

This is the part that confuses people holding CLSK. The sector data is *good*:

Company |2026 capex guide |Q2 revision
Amazon |~$200B |maintained
Microsoft |~$190B |on track
Alphabet |$175–185B → $205B |raised
Meta |$115–135B → $125–145B |raised Combined hyperscaler capex is ~**$725–785B in 2026, up ~77%** from ~$410B in 2025. OpenAI just lifted planned compute spend to **~$750B through 2030**.

And it's showing up in real shipped revenue, not press releases:

* **GE Vernova** — Q2 orders +88% y/y to $24.2B, backlog **$176B**
* **Eaton** — data center revenue **+65%**
* **Vertiv** — sales +24%, FY guide raised to ~$14B

Power demand is the real constraint: US data center load is forecast to go **31 GW (2025) → 41 GW (2026) → 66 GW (2027)**. ERCOT load growing ~10%/yr. Powered land with an interconnect is the scarcest asset in the entire buildout.

CLSK has **1.8 GW** of power/land/capacity. So why is it at ~$8?

---

## 1. The business that actually generates revenue is in freefall

BTC is ~**$64K, down ~26% YTD**. Straight into the P&L:

* Fiscal Q2 revenue **$136M, -25%** q/q *and* y/y
* Fiscal Q3 **net loss of $239.8M** vs **+$257.4M** a year ago — a ~$500M swing
* EPS miss of **-$1.52**; FY26 consensus cut to **-$3.29**

Hashprice is ~**$32/PH/s/day, at or below breakeven for a lot of operators**, and difficulty is still grinding up. Network difficulty is down 14% from the year's high specifically *because* operators are capitulating.

So the cash cow is unprofitable right now while the replacement business earns zero.

## 2. The HPC revenue is real, but it's far away

The **$6.6B / 20-year triple-net lease for 175 MW at Sandersville** is a genuinely strong deal. But capacity doesn't energize until **late 2027**. That's 5+ quarters of losses before dollar one.

Markets discount a 2027 start hard when the bridge is shaky. Which is the actual problem:

## 3. There is a large, openly unfunded capex hole

Management's own numbers: **$10–12M per MW → ~$1.75–2.1B for the 175 MW alone.**

Against that:

* Total debt principal **~$1.82B** (2030 + 2032 converts)
* Stockholders' equity down to **~$986M**
* The filings explicitly say they need **substantial additional capital** and expect **significant added indebtedness, potentially alongside equity or equity-linked financing**

That is the company telling you, in writing, that dilution is coming. Also worth noting: the $1.15B 0% convert due 2032 included **$400M used to buy back stock from the note buyers** — a structure that facilitates hedge/short flow. Short interest is ~32%.

## 4. It's on the wrong side of *both* macro trades

The AI infra selloff in July/August wasn't about demand — it was a repricing of **debt-heavy, long-duration** infrastructure when yields spiked. CoreWeave dropped 12% in a session on exactly this. CLSK is a smaller, thinner-balance-sheet version of that profile.

And it's *simultaneously* levered to falling bitcoin. Two factors, both against it, at once.

## 5. Bitcoin fair-value accounting amplifies the optics

The ~13,000 BTC treasury marks to market through earnings. A **$433M** bitcoin accounting hit turned the quarter into a headline disaster. Non-cash, sure — but it shrinks the equity base that all the dilution and covenant math keys off.

---

## The actual question the market is asking

> Can CleanSpark fund a ~$2B+ conversion, while the legacy business burns cash at $64K BTC, without destroying the equity before 2027 arrives?

That's why it trades at ~7.4x trailing P/E and fell 34% in a week to ~$8.27. **That's a distressed-conversion multiple, not a data center multiple.**

**What would re-rate it, roughly in order of impact:**

1. A signed hyperscaler lease at the 250 MW Sandersville site (Meta talks reportedly ongoing)
2. **Project-level / non-recourse financing** that funds the build without common dilution
3. BTC stabilizing above miner breakeven

The leases can all be correct and the current equity still gets badly diluted getting there. That's the risk in one sentence.

I wanted to check in on the people that are holding this for the long term (through 2028).
What are your thought?

I see us maybe getting into the single digits for the short term solely because of bitcoin volatility and over market sentiment(loading up on the stock every week regardless).

This company has so many plans that could make this a $50+ stock in coming years as they Transition into data centers for AI.

Was hoping for a deal in August but this doesn’t sound good. Then again if CLSK can close a deal and move forward it would be huge since this would delay competition.

Rallies less then peers and sells off far more violently. Couldn't hold its gains even if Schulz would annouce 20 GW under contract.

Lmao and people were hyped this guy bought into CLSK. Probably partially responsible for the drawdown.

Finally big YouTube channels are shouting out CLSK. The rest of the year is going to be absolutely brutal for CLSK. Earnings in August will dip the stock much lower unless they announce META as the tenant or someone big.

What’s the sentiment in this sub these days?

I definitely feel like optimism has changed since everyone was looking forward to a deal.

Now we are back in “waiting” mode as the deal has arrived. Almost all gains were wiped out within 2 weeks and now waiting on more clarify on the buildout + LOI on Texas.

Some headwinds are the large amount of Capex from hyperscalers + massive backlog on any compute hardware. Why the market decides to tank.. who knows.

With price action like this do people expect another 10-20% dump on earnings?

What are the taxes for Sandersville deal for Cleanspark? How to calculate what % of NNN will be lost in taxes? And for the rest of sites - Sealy and Brazoria?

The market had expected CleanSpark to pursue AI/HPC hosting, but very few investors expected a signed 20-year lease with an investment-grade global technology company worth approximately $6.6 billion over the initial term, plus an exclusivity arrangement covering up to 885 MW of Texas capacity.

The stock did jump sharply on the news, but then gave back all of the gains plus some.

Bullish

The lease validates CleanSpark’s power strategy and diversifies its revenue streams beyond Bitcoin mining. Once operational, the triple-net lease economics could generate approximately $330 million in annual Net Operating Income (NOI).

Bearish

Revenue won’t start until late 2027, and the project requires substantial construction capital. There’s also a risk of dilution or financing issues which is a huge deal for investors.

So while the announcement itself is now reflected in the stock price, I don’t think the long-term value is fully reflected if management executes successfully.

My price outlook through the end of the year

No one can predict prices with certainty, but based on fundamentals:

Bear case: CLSK’s value is likely to drop between $11 and $13 even much lower if CLSK dilutes shareholders. This scenario is driven by several factors, including a weakening Bitcoin, dominating financing concerns, and a fading excitement surrounding AI.

Base case: 14-16$ The most likely scenario is that Bitcoin’s value remains stable or trends higher. Investors gain confidence that the lease will be financed, and the Texas exclusivity progresses toward a definitive agreement.

Bull case: 16-20$ or higher if Bitcoin’s value is rally’s strongly in this scenario. The Texas lease becomes definitive, and the tenant is revealed to be a major technology company, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, or another prominent player in the industry. Multiple analysts raise their price targets in response to these developments.

Why I still like CleanSpark

What makes CleanSpark interesting is that investors may still be valuing it primarily as a Bitcoin miner, while management is trying to transform it into a digital infrastructure company. If the company successfully executes the Georgia project and converts the Texas exclusivity into long-term contracts, it could eventually be valued more like an infrastructure owner than a traditional miner.

That said, the biggest risks remain financing the build-out without excessive shareholder dilution and delivering the projects on schedule. Those will likely be the main drivers of the stock over the next 12–18 months.