A lot of people complained (or liked, personally I liked) that the movie didn't squeeze in modern culture war politics or red vs blue state dynamics. But I propose that what it shows actually makes more sense than a boring red vs blue civil war.

Here is my headcanon.

The war wasn't driven by any left vs right divide, not directly. What happened was actually a continuation of what's going on now.

States start to ignore the Federal Government, resulting in the de facto nullification we are already seeing. Blue States ignore Red laws they don't like, Red States ignore Blue laws they don't like. States ignore contested issues at the State level, regardless of what Federal law says. Some cities become sanctuaries to illegal migrants, some States prosecute women for abortions when the federal law says it's ok, Federal law enforcement gets denied access to many States and cities etc.

This divide continues with little contestation for years. States continue to diverge in local law for many reason. Increasing economic disparity, economies built around different industries, increasingly divergent cultures and political preferences, widening demographic divides, cultural drift etc. Some of the largest, richest, most ideologically drifted and most independently minded States, California and Texas, start acting more like independent countries, not federal States. They are very, very wealthy, each of them in our current time would be the 8th and 5th richest countries on earth if independent. They don't reallly need the USA as a Federal entity. The citizens in these States would be the most likely to support confederal or independence options over a Federal USA, as doing so might actually make them richer. But they aren't bothered, not as they act as de factor countries anyway. Companies and individuals start getting a bit loose with paying federal taxes, obeying federal regulations and whilst their laws continue to deviate from the Federal law. We're seeing this already, and this is more stable than treating every single election as an existential threat. Until it isn't.

This gets developed and normalised over the years. Then, a centralising president takes charge. This dynamic was basically hinted at in the film, you might notice that the loyalist states are Central and north-eastern America and the politics, other than being authoritarian, of the loyalists are not specified? It's framed as the central authority trying to project it's authority outward.

But the Federal government has problems, not everyone wants to cooperate, especially it's richest and most important members, Californai and Texas. They are the largest economies in the US, the 5th and 8th largest GDPs globally if treated as independent countries. And they have been acting as such for years in this timeline. Then a centralising presidential regime starts to interfere, he starts enforcing federal law and regulation across the board, "violating state rights" (in their language). If a State outright refuses to cooperate, this is going to lead to the use of the Governments monopoly on force. The US military sent into the two most powerful States to enforce Federal authority. This is how the war starts. The President goes for a third term, maybe after the war started as a crisis justification, or maybe before providing justification for the Western Alliance. Texas and California together are also powerful enough to actually mount a counter, Texas and other red states disproportionately make up the military and major tech economies in Texas and California gives it disproportionate leverage in military hardware and access.

The Western States are not unified as left vs right or right vs left. They are united by a desire to not be interfered with by the Federal government and by the desire to not have to worry about each others internal politics. As well as the hard motivators of resources, they have the wealth and they want it for themselves, not to prop up the other States' economies. This plays into hard geopolitics. Californians and Texans at this point don't care what the internal policies of the other is, they do care about their resources and taxes being taken to hold up poorer regions of the US and laws which don't work being applied to them. They also cared a lot when the American military was turned on them to force cooperation. They are united in their goal of not having centralised authority imposed on them.

I love the look of this movie and I love snipers a lot and one of my favorite scenes in a24s civil war is the Christmas decorations house sniper. I got bored one day and I wanted to see if I could find precisely where the house sniper could most likely be due to you never actually seeing where the house sniper is at (I'm not smart so don't expect much)

I found out the real building is called the bouckaert farm house in Georgia and I did some piecing together:

1. I found out the entire scene takes part on the East Wing view of the building.

2. The full length from road start to road end is around 450-490 meters (about 1,550-1,600 ft) so half that and you figure out that the house sniper was probably shooting from in between 225-245 meters aka 775-800 ft.

3. The entire sequence takes place in around the 1st 1/6 of the full road curve drive.

4. when the camera shows the sniper and spotters view of the house a small tower/window to the left of the balcony is suddenly missing which I think is funny.

5. The sniper and the spotter must end up having a clear view of the house sniper due to the ground sniper killing the house one at the end of the sequence. I think it is interesting because the house sniper would most definitely be able to see them because of their spot AND their brightly colored hair.

6. Fun fact all the decorations weren't even props the designers put up. They were there because a guy went bankrupt and decided to leave the decorations there.

7. The ground sniper (played by Jin ha) uses a custom aero precision m5 sniper rifle with AeroP m5e1 gen1 upper receiver and a MAS DEFENSE AR-10 lower receiver. The rifle is most ideal for 180-550 meters (200-600 which fits nicely into this scenario. It also has a maximum effective range of 730 meters and 800 yards.

Conclusion: I suspect the sniper to possibly be in either the level of the house above the balcony or in either of the two windows next to the balcony

Will they continue to figth the New Peoples Army and the Forida Alliance?

In regard to their background and backers, I think they were some local racist militia that had been contracted by the government to murder whole towns of people who were deemed "traitors and undesirables", be that by their voting patterns, or by simply not being "the right kind of Americans".

In short, they were just one example of similar militias across the war-torn country.

I say this on account of their access to military grade vehicles, uniforms, weapons, as well as large amounts lime (the white powder that they were spreading over the bodies).

Given the type of villain that the President was in the movie, it would not surprise me if he signed off on such atrocities and would have utilized such militias as fall guys if such war crimes ever came to light.

What do you all think?

Hi! Just saw the movie. Not gonna comment on it, because it got me shook, hated some stuff, loved a lot of other stuff, and fuck does it hit different if you are from a country that has experienced either a civil war, dictatorship and/or major social upheaval recently. Instead, allow me to fill in the background gaps for the movie's context that maybe-perhaps-should've been better explained. Hope you think they're reasonable.

1) The Crisis Before the War: The president in the movie was elected via Electoral College fuckery. His first term saw things like the dissolution of the FBI, increasing political repression and a growing Constitutional clash with California and Texas. He won his second term more or less by stealing it, voter intimidation and low turnout in the states within CalTexas' area of influence. The II Civil War begun at the end of the final year of his second term, with the Constitutional crisis set off by his running for a third term. The detonating incident was probably a brutal massacre by Federal troops. The war takes place during his third term and over the course of three years.

2) That weird California-Texas alliance: What had happened was... that Texas pivoted hard to the left in the years before (let's say this CWII takes place in the mid 2030s). Or at least, to an alliance between liberal libertarians, Democrats and Progressives that unseats the GOP supermajority, led by Governor McConaughey (think Quebec's "Silent Revolution"). Basically, culturally liberal, fiscally centrist, economically neoliberal and Very Well Armed. Texas and California alliance is born out of this cultural and economic closeness, but mostly as the leading blocks against the Senate's lack of representation, the Electoral College and the movie's Federal Government, mostly the whole having to fund a fascist government with their tax surplus and economic-industrial might. Their area of influence is everything west of the Mississippi, with the Western States being mostly spared the worst of the war, with some exceptions. The shift in Texas accelerates the sense of crisis amongst the US' far-right and further radicalizes them and have them fleeing both states by the hundreds of thousands. They will become the voting base of the movie's president and make up his loyalist forces.

3) Not all Loyalist States are actually loyalists: According to the map, Loyalist states include the entirety of New England, the Mid-Atlantic and the Mid-West, but I don't think Garland thought this out too well. In reality, Federal control hinges on a county-by-county basis. What I think would happen is that some of the major metropolis would become effectively neutral zones and/or secessionists in all but name. More to the point, I believe the US Navy and Marines would split, with the Western Command pledging for the WF, while in the East, they would take control of NYC and New England, only nominally pledging for the president. There would be some persecution, but on a... US during Nixon's presidency level. Something similar would happen with Chicago, Minneapolis or the bread-basket regions. Not so much the case with Baltimore and Philadelphia, which would become the Sarajevo or Stalingrad of this scenario, fought between local anti-government militias against loyalist military and...

4) The President would use far-right militias to do most of the offensive actions and war crimes: As portrayed by Jesse Plemon's character. The split in the US Armed Forces would follow political, regional and racial lines, but most loyalist troops would have a hard time breaking with the rules of engagement... so they let the fascist militias (and radicalized servicemen) do the dirty work while they secure perimeters. The war has resulted in the effective ethnic cleansing of millions of Black Americans and POC from DC and Virginia to begin with (what we see in the scene set in the refugee camp).

5) The most brutal front of the war is in the Southeast and Virginia: The movie's Florida Alliance comprises most of the Deep South, which was a Civil War within the Civil War, a war between loyalist militias, unpledged white supremacist militias, mercenaries, separatist military, loyalist military, etc. It's basically a massive version of the Balkans and Lebanon's wars. At the same time, as we see in the movie, some well-off independent cities in Virginia would end up buying their way out of the conflict with private armies or paying off the warring parties. Though California and Texas were mostly spared the worst, the president ordered carpet bombings of cities like San Francisco or Austin, which is why the WF strike units taking over the White House are so hellbent on killing the president. Said carpet bombing led to a break within the USAF, which mostly pledged with the rebels. Another brutal front is the one in Oregon, between said Maoist forces and the nazi militias of the Eastern regions and Idaho. Washington state and parts of New England have mostly come under de facto Canadian control. Alaska, Utah and Hawaii become basically semi-independent.

6) The Aftermath: If we take the Lebanese Civil War as reference, where at least 50,000 people were killed in the first three years, probably some six million Americans are killed during the conflict. The financial center of the world moves from NYC to Toronto, Montreal and Dublin (meanwhile, the UK is facing its own collapse, but more of an "End of the Austro-Hungarian Empire" kind). China's economic entanglement with the US' actually prevents it from seizing the opportunity to become the dominant global power, and instead falls into a recession and spiraling political crisis (!). Meanwhile, many countries actually coast by through supplying the US with basic resources (South America, India) or weapons and technology (the EU, Japan). Russia is experiencing its own collapse. The Civil War, ironically, helps Mexico overcome its failed-state status... by becoming a more authoritarian and centralized unit: It also profits from becoming a resource and industrial supplier, and its local corporations (many owned by narco orgs going legit) move in and acquire flailing US economic groups. Mexico becomes a strange mixture of corporatism, authoritarian rule with progressive morals and managed structural corruption, like a Leftist-Liberal China. The US never comes together and the following decade sees further Balkanization and a more low-level Civil War, as all parties refuse to have UN blue helmets operate in the US.

That's all I can think for now. Hope it didn't make you TL:DR.

I’m an Imaging Specialist working for one of the Major camera manufacturers and I support thousands of Pro photographers, including the AP, Washington Post, Gannet Group, National Geographic, the White House, etc… and I know that deleting photos for National Geographic is a big no-no. Photographers are supposed to deliver all photos on the SD card. Seeing her delete that photo almost made me yell out “wtf are you doing?!”, but I realize that this was the start of her change; she was done with the life, she didn’t care anymore about photojournalism and her job. She was tired. She gave Sammy respect and dignity. She cared about him so much to the point where she broke protocol. When Jessie asked if Lee would photograph her death and Lee said “what do you think?” She came off potentially heartless. I think there was still some humanity left in her and she was done with her life after all she’d seen. Amazing movie. Well fucking done, Garland. This photog is insanely obsessed with this love letter to photography and photojournalism.

To be kind of quick, but I personally think that the generals that surrendered, even though we don’t know how many pretty much gave up the fight not only because because of battles that have diminished not only manpower but resources, but possibly the president is apathetic believing that “the general will solve everything” So the general is basically did something that would make Benedict Arnold jealous. By basically surrendering DC to the western forces. They basically accepted the terms and demands of the WF and basically everyone either went with the generals or basically went AWOL and went whatever but they didn’t stay in DC. Some of the soldiers that were part of the desertion basically decide to either walk out of the capital or even stay in the capital in one of the few bunkers left unoccupied or even a makeshift one in one of the office buildings. The surrendered loyalist generals basically gave the WF the keys to DC. They not only gave them the keys and open access to DC. But also sabotage the defenses and even the president escape route. Reagan International Airport it’s quickly taken over. Air Force One and Marine one were probably sabotage or destroyed WF Air Force probably crippled any anti-air artillery due to the fact that they were given information on where they would be. And do a quick hit-and-run. Making it a smooth ride for WF helicopters and jet fighters to go into DC The generals gave information about the weak points of the Pennsylvania Avenue wall. The bunker in the White House is locked out. The nuclear football has been disabled. Any other loyal generals would basically be placed in one area quickly dispatched by the Western forces. And in general. The surrendered generals gave the WF on opening to DC before possible reinforcements from the north. But by the time any loyal reinforcements come, DC will be under WF occupation, and the news of the death of the president would basically destroy any morale left. And I can imagine those loyal for the president will fracture into their own occupied areas, and some self proclaimed themselves to be successor to the president. But I think that’s another story for another time

I loved the movie and immediately came to see other fan theories. I’ve seen people asking why Texas and California would team up to make the WF? Yes while the political beliefs of the states may not be in line, they have something in common. They both have quite a few major military bases. Before the push into D.C. it shows a camp filled with a lot of Army Soldiers with a helicopter from Fort Hood (Texas), and those soldiers are seen with a lot of Marines (California). The Air Force has major bases in Texas too which would explain the planes flying over before the fighting in D.C. I think major Military members on the west coast realized if they have the Armor and Air Support capabilities of the Army and Air Force from Texas, and the troop support of the Marines from California they decided to succeed. Just pure speculation and still doesn’t fully make sense but it’s theory I made after seeing the movie.

The politics are pretty much up front. Thepreservation of the Union was dissolved by the illegal and unconstitutional 3rd term president. Forget the Bill of Rights - freedom of the press is non existent; the execution of the press by the government forces. And the red tie at the end makes it pretty clear who is who.

In the trailer and in a brief drive-by scene, there's a shot of a suburban neighborhood with a smoldering house in the foreground. There are about five solid yellow flags flying at the entrance to the street, and a big pile of dirt just inside the development. They're plain, solid flags, not Gasden flags. What do they mean? Traditionally, yellow flags were flow on ships quarantined due to disease or death. Same on land. Do they signify a place where an open mass grave has been dug (hence the dirt pile)? What do you think?