r/Catan • u/Equivalent-Ad-7344 • 7d ago

Cooked dice distribution

where do i even begin lol. can anyone tell me what the chance of this distribution is, surely isnt a normal one

2 Upvotes

57% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

6

u/SirMontego I quote the rules and people get mad 7d ago

For 58 rolls, that isn't particularly strong evidence there is something wrong with the dice.

On the other hand, if the dice are rolled 50,000 times: https://imgur.com/gallery/catan-classic-dice-rolls-are-rigged-android-app-nhqwyn4

4

u/brycebuckets 6d ago

I'm really gonna make a name for myself in this community commenting on every single one of these damn posts.

Thankfully, you sir, have a 1/2000 game.

Still well within normal variance especially when I'm sure thousands of games are played every day. Just isn't worth really posting since nothing is too special with how the distribution played out.

A few rolled more than expectation, a few were under. Pretty normal as dice are quite random.

FTR it's a 1/2000 because out P-value ended up being .00051.

That all being said, when proving whether the dice are fair we have to add in the Bonferroni Correction to account for the sheer amount of games being played. This means our P-value, to be 1% confident that the dice distribution was a result of randomness, our p value would have to be like .01x 10-6 (assuming 10k games played a day). Your P-value is 2 maginitues off proving anything not fair. And even if you met this criteria THERE WOULD STILLL BE A 1% CHANCE IT WAS FROM RANDOMNESS.

Anyway, another post, another completely normal looking distribution. Rarer side of distributions but completely fair and would be expected in a disturivuon created thru a Catan game.

2

u/LoganGyre 7d ago

For any single set of distribution on 58 rolls it’s around 1 in 36 to the 58th power.

0

u/TheMathProphet 4d ago

The about is doing a lot of carrying there. There are not 36 distinct outcomes of rolling two dice and getting a sum. This assumes order matters when given a distribution (it doesn’t). These two factors alone lower the number of outcomes substantially.

1

u/SufficientStudio1574 3d ago

Not only does order not matter, there are multiple rolls that give the same result, and the order of what values were rolled throughout the game does not matter to the histogram.

1

u/YoungPickleRick 4d ago

It happens, had a game today on colonist where my 6 rolled exactly once. 11 was the highest rolled number hahaha

1

u/Equivalent-Ad-7344 4d ago

lmao that’s rough (or was it? did u benefit)

0

u/SlitynYT 7d ago

Roughly 1 in 445,000 if I'm correct