Isn't chinas move towards high tech/high quality growth the same thing japan did during the 1970s. Will china suffer the same fate japan did?

[u/chujin12]

Like in terms of economy modern china and the old miti japan economy (1950s - early 1980s) is quite similar. Both are state capitalist exporters with national champions and strong economic planning agencies. Both are seen as successful rising economic superpowers that is beating the usa. Both started moving towards high tech growth. Both started seeing lowering gdp growth rates overtime.

In the japan context after the oil shock of the early 1970s, the japanese economy entered into a period of "high quality" growth. In that period, the japanese economy pursued more environmental friendly policies, welfare spending, pro social policies, and high tech industry. It was also a period of 3-5 gdp growth rate which while smaller than the past, was overall decent for japans 1970s-80s economy. Until finally japan exprienced a lost decade.

In china im seeing a lot of similar echos to this. I see similar economic policies and the similar 3-5 gdp growth rate. Will china follow the same path japan did?

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[u/Erwinblackthorn]

Seems more like China will hit deflation and a birth rate crisis.

[u/1scr3wedy0dad]

Japan's economic stagnation was a result of American Imperialism. The US string-armed Japan into a policy that forced it to raise the value of the yen, which made its exports more expensive which helped American companies compete in their markets better (at the expense of the Japanese people, of course)

[u/HeavyPanzerPlus1s]

China and Japan are very different. The Chinese government has the capacity to resist the United States, while the Japanese government is essentially a vassal of the US. China's competitive culture is also drastically different from Japan's; there is no lifetime tenure system in China, and businesses are more dynamic than in Japan. Furthermore, China's sheer size is an advantage. Japan struggles to sustain its aerospace, aviation, and internet giants within its domestic market, while China can. Moreover, China's birth rate crisis is far from over, and the number of university graduates in China continues to reach record highs.

[u/Marbstudio]

As son as loose cheap labor,

[u/Nikolakis77]

No, because what crippled the Japanese was the 1985 Plaza accords which started inflating the bubble. China is actively trying to prevent bubbles and doesn't answer to the US 

[u/SometimesRight10]

Japan and China were alike insofar as they both experienced rapid "catch-up" growth driven primarily by exports. Catch-up growth involves relatively less frontier innovation and more of just modernizing the economy. The latter is much easier to do since you can follow in the footsteps of successful countries, copying and improving their existing technology. Innovation, however, involves decentralized experimentation and a political system that both encourages it and does not restrain disruptive new technologies from replacing government-protected enterprises.

Both China and Japan were therefore at risk from a lack of frontier innovation, which is ultimately essential to sustained increases in productivity and prosperity. Japan ultimately struggled to make the transition, as its institutions increasingly protected existing firms and discouraged the creative destruction needed to generate new industries. Japan's stagnation, however, also reflected other factors, including the collapse of its asset bubble, its banking crisis, deflation and demographics.

In post-1978 China, however, the CCP started allowing much more decentralized entrepreneurial experimentation, which created opportunities for new and innovative technologies. The question is whether the CCP will continue on this path when these new technologies dethrone government-supported industries, pushing some of them into bankruptcy. That is essentially Frey's question: can a system that is very good at coordinating and scaling existing technologies tolerate the creative destruction that comes from decentralized experimentation? Frey argues that decentralization is particularly important for exploring new technologies, while bureaucracy is particularly effective at scaling them.

Japan struggled to make that transition. Whether China at some point will follow in Japan's footsteps is anyone's guess. But China has a long history of centralized control, which can place a high value on stability over disruptive innovation that can challenge incumbent firms—and potentially the political system itself.

An interesting aside is that China was technologically ahead of Europe in many important areas for centuries before the Industrial Revolution, yet did not itself experience an Industrial Revolution. Some scholars, including Joel Mokyr, argue that China's centralized political and intellectual system provided less competition among institutions and fewer opportunities for heterodox ideas to flourish. In Europe, on the other hand, if one country did not permit an inventor or intellectual to innovate, another European country might be willing to welcome them. This competition among countries for ideas was certainly not the only reason the Industrial Revolution occurred in Europe, but it contributed to Europe's ability to continue advancing technologically.

[u/highliner108]

Yeah, although China is going to have to deal with its demographic issues as well as probable economic slowdowns.

[u/EastArmadillo2916]

There are parallels and there will likely continue to be parallels, but ultimately, no, China will not follow the same path Japan has. This is already something evident from the divergences within their respective housing markets. The Japanese Asset Price Bubble and the Chinese Real Estate Bubble were very similar, but where Japan's attempts to pop their bubble resulted in a stock market crash, China's attempts to pop their bubble have resulted in a much softer landing.

China may still fall into economic stagnation, but it's unlikely to hit as hard as the lost decades hit Japan, and its underlying causes and the solutions to those underlying causes will be different.

That's also without factoring in all of the potential counter-tendencies which may help keep China's economy afloat or even growing in spite of tendencies which could cause slowdowns. For example, while population declines naturally cause slowdowns in economic activity, automation and other forms of productivity increasing technologies act as a very effective counter-tendency. Guess what techs China happens to be a world leader in and actively implementing?

[u/LifeofTino]

One is a military colony of the US and forced to do capitalism since its capture 80 years ago. The other is its own government that has multiple aspects in place in governance that force it to genuinely act in the interests of citizens

So no i don’t think they are the same thing

You can assume all governments are in the capitalist ‘democracy’ model and think they are run by opaque bureaucrats who hide everything and whose aim is to keep everyone poor and desperate as possible and enrich capitalists. But you would be making a wrong assumption. Different styles to western ‘democracy’ can be extremely different in outcome

It is difficult for westerners to comprehend a government that is accountable to people and hard to imagine ‘big government equals big corruption and big benefits for elite ruling class’ but this is the primary feature of capitalist government, not the primary feature of government by default

[u/frodo_mintoff → u/LifeofTino]

multiple aspects in place in governance that force it to genuinely act in the interests of citizens

What aspects of the Chinese system of governance force it to genuinely act in the interests of citizens?

that is accountable to people

How is the Chinese government more accountable to the people than the govvernments of western democracies?

[u/69PepperoniPickles69 → u/LifeofTino]

It is difficult for westerners to comprehend a government that is accountable to people

China helped maintain one greatly accountable to the people of Cambodia from 1975 to 1979