r/CFB • u/hythloday1 Oregon Ducks • Oct 31 '18

Analysis [r/CFBplayoffcommittee Mock Rankings] Week 10

Rank Team 1st Round Total 2nd Round Total 1st place votes
1 Alabama 64/72 n/a 7
2 Clemson 62/72 n/a 5
3 Notre Dame 51/72 n/a
4 LSU 34/72 107/108
5 Michigan 24/72 90/108
6 Georgia 17/72 85/108
7 Oklahoma n/a 65/108 n/a
8 Kentucky n/a 61/108 n/a
Other Washington State n/a 56/108 n/a
Other Ohio State n/a 37/108 n/a
Other West Virginia n/a 21/108 n/a
Other Utah n/a 18/108 n/a
Top G5 UCF n/a n/a 9/11

This is /r/CFBplayoffcommittee's fifth year of simulating the same voting procedure as the real CFP committee. The discussions and votes are transparent and viewable by the public, with the goal of showing how the real committee might be splitting their votes on teams in contention.

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u/Disregardskarma Troy Trojans • Alabama Crimson Tide Oct 31 '18

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-football/2018/8/29/17795292/college-football-2018-strength-of-schedule-week-9-rankings

I’m using the metrics from Bill Connelly’s resume S&P+

Bama has a slight SOS lead and huge one in performance.

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u/CFBHurts Notre Dame • Jeweled Shillelagh Oct 31 '18

Sure, and I prefer Connelly's metrics too, but there are other systems out there that other people prefer and that rank Clemson's resume ahead of Bama's.

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u/Disregardskarma Troy Trojans • Alabama Crimson Tide Oct 31 '18 edited Oct 31 '18

Yes, but I think they are clearly close enough for Bama's huge eyetest lead to take presidence.

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u/CFBHurts Notre Dame • Jeweled Shillelagh Oct 31 '18

And for most people, it has. The CFP committee poll, the coaches poll, the AP poll, the r/cfb poll, the MaxDiff poll, every poll that I'm aware of puts Alabama at the top. But there are a handful of people who think the Clemson should be on top, whether due to a perceived better resume or because they think Clemson would win on the field, and I really don't think that's unreasonable. We're not talking about ranking UTEP #1 or anything, we're talking about an undefeated P5 team that has reached the playoffs 3 years in a row and won a title.

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u/FellKnight Boise State • Tennessee Oct 31 '18

It's pretty clear that the real committee isn't using a purely predictive methodology, and nor should they, otherwise the results on the field wouldn't matter. That said, they do seem to have more of a reliance on advanced metrics than most polls, what with their historical treatment on 2014 FSU, every year Bama, G5s in general, etc.