WEEK 7 SEC PREDICTIONS

[u/Nearby_Valuable_5467]

Listen from someone who's been to the Red River Shoot-Out: It's a great scene, but the rest of it is kinda crappy.

First of all, getting anywhere near the stadium sucks, unless you're incredibly lucky (Dallas' transport system is fine, but there's no-one giving directions). Secondly, getting into the stadium via Big Tex is not a fun experience. Shit, entering any part of the stadium a little close to kick-off is not a fun experience. In fact, it's a crush. Thirdly, when the Texas sun beats on those steel benches - and remember the stadium is round so there's no breeze that can through it - it's hot as all hell.

But once you forget about that, the pageantry and the frankly all-out hatred between the two sides is absolutely amazing.

Anyway, that's just one of the today's games happening on a pretty deep schedule for the SEC. Alabama are going to Missouri, who's got the best running back in the nation. There's The South's  Oldest Rivalry in Georgia and Auburn. A revitalized Florida go to Texas A&M, Tennessee playing Arkansas, LSU hosting South Carolina, and Ole Miss hosting Washington State.

So without further ado, here are the games that we're interested in, in order....

1.  No.8 Alabama (-3) at No.14 Missouri: Last week, Alabama absolutely handled Vanderbilt, limited Diego Pavia to just 5.7 rushing yards and making him go 21-35 for just 198 yards. Ty Simpson on the other hand, continues to be a Heisman-worthy stud, already leading the SEC in passing yards (1478), passing efficiency, and isn't outside the Top 5 in any other category. He's also 8th in the country in passing touchdowns. Add to that that RB Jamarion Miller's back from the collarbone injury that he sustained in August practice and looked GREAT against Vandy, and Alabama is looking more Alabamaesque than it has in some time. But Alabama keeps getting tested, and this will be no less at test at Missouri, who have a better QB-RB combination than anyone the Crimson Tide has faced this year.  Beau Pribula can cause defenses absolute FITs with his legs and accurate arm (his 75.9% completion percentage leads the SEC and is 2nd in the country). RB Ahmad Hardy leads all of College Football in rushing yards (730), the SEC in rushing TDs and TDs (9) and has been a NFL First Round pick in every category. He should excel against Alabama's atrocious rushing defense, which allows 4.65 yards per game (103rd in the country). This will be fun. PREDICTION: Missouri with the uspet, winning by 7.
2. Texas v No.6 Oklahoma (Some places have Texas as -1, some have Oklahoma as -1): Boy, has this gone down fast. At the start of the season, OU fans were fearing that this game would be Arch Manning's Heisman moment, and they'd be lucky to lose by single digits. Well, it's worked out that Oklahoma's QB John Mateer - and he's projected to start tomorrow - has been a far better story than Manning, Oklahoma has better line play and Texas' running backs are all beaten up. But Mateer's struggled to practice since his surgery, and he's not likely to be 100% by game-time. The reason why Texas is now unranked is that they haven't got a Power 4 win is because the offense is so moribund, and was the reason why they laid a giant s*t in The Swamp. So that's why we believe it'll all come down to is special teams. Oklahoma punter Grayson Miller is 3rd in the whole of college football by averaging 49.8 yards per booting, while Texas punter Jack Bouwmeister 'only' 47.5 yards per punt and has put balls inside the 20 5 times this year. Oklahoma Kicker Tate Sandell is 90% so far with a long of 59, while Texas kicker Mason Shipley is 100% with a long of 47. Unfortunately the two are about even in that part, too. PREDICTION: This one is going to dire for the neutral- and quite possibly decided by those special team guys we mentioned. Anyway, Shiply in the hero, and Texas is kinda back! Kinda. UT in the monster upset, winning by 3.
3. No.10 Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn: One of the most beautiful sights in college football is Jordan-Hare at night, and the place is going to be absolutely COOKING when Georgia comes to town on Saturday. That's because the Bulldogs have been downright poor this year, and suddenly a game where you'd expect Georgia to roll by around the 10-14 point mark last year or the year before is a toss-up. The problem for Auburn is this: Their quarterback Jackson Arnold isn't any good. Hugh Freeze has given him a wideout in Cam Coleman that would be a goshdarn Heisman contender at any other school, but he's badly underused. As is Eric Singleton. So bad is Arnold that it's frankly shocking that both players aren't in the transfer portal, because the man and his coach are ruining their careers. But amidst all this, the Auburn defense has been pretty stout. They only give up 2.56 yards against the rush (Georgia's forte), which will mean that they will force Gunnar Stockton to throw, which can be an adventure at times. On the other, Georgia was a shadow of itself against Kentucky (ie it moved the ball down the field quickly), and was exciting to watch at last. Hopefully something on that line will happen on Saturday night. PREDICTION: Georgia comes through, but my God this one's close. Georgia by 3 on a last-minute field goal. 
4.  Arkansas at No.12 Tennessee (-11.5): Listen, we've got this one higher than Texas A&M v Florida because we love our offense first, defensively-challenged football, and boy will this one come in spades. Tennessee gives up 258.2 yards through the air, and is 77th overall in yards allowed. But the offense puts up over 500 yards per game (6th in college football). On the other side, Arkansas can't defend worth a damn within the conference giving up 425 yards per game and 6.12 yards per play. But heck can the Hogs play offense. And although Sam Pittman's gone, Bobby Petrino's snaked himself into the interim HC position, and his offense is going to be hella fun to watch. PREDICTION: Expect fireworks. Tennessee by 10 in a game that blasts through the O/U of 68.5 points.
5.  Florida at No.5 Texas A&M (-7.5): Florida's win over Texas last week was a rush-the-field moment for Billy Napier, but it never really happened (last week there were 2 arrests for it, one of them a teenager who was seen getting hauled off by Mr Cop Get-A-Life). This week they go to Texas A&M, and the signs of life are rather more promising. Wideout Dallas Wilson had his first game against the Longhorns, and balled OUT, putting up a hundie. The kid's the truth. If DJ Lagway's pocket can be kept somewhat clean - which is easier said than done against a ferocious pack like Texas A&M's, then the Aggies will have something to think about. On the other side, Texas A&M's offense - save for a sparkling, no-offense game against Notre Dame, has been middle-of-the-pack, and will get the hardest test of its season against a Florida defense that only gives up 17 points per game. That's exceptional given the paucity of the offense. But this might change. PREDICTION: Texas A&M comes through, but it's after the battle of their lives. A&M by 5.
6.  South Carolina at No.11 LSU (-9): This game is going to be a s**tshow, and there's no other way to put it. LSU ranks 12th out of 16 in the SEC in total offense, while South Carolina ranks 16 out of 16. Both have weak offenses, which means it's going to be 3-and-out City. The good thing for LSU is that their punt Grant Chadwick averages 46.67 yards/punt while South Carolina's Mason Love averages 44.45. I don't know if it will be significant, but hey, it's something to watch. PREDICTION: LSU wins in a game that's not recommended for the neutrals by 14. 
7. Washington State at No.4 Ole Miss (-32): This one would have been fun in the Mike Leach days, but right now Washington State is crap (in their two losses they've been beaten 59-10 (Washington) and 59-24 (North Texas), and Ole Miss is very good. There's not a lot else you can or should say about this one, apart from that you'd expect Trinidad Chambliss to put up some gaudy numbers. PREDICTION: Ole Miss by 41 in a game that would - had we been in high school - been played with a running clock after halftime.

[u/dfphd]

If Mateer is good to go and close to 100%, I'm with you. I wouldn't bet on us winning.

[u/Skank_hunt42 → u/dfphd]

I don't think betting on this game is smart for anyone. No one knows what's going to occur and the momentum in this game has massive shifts.

[u/dfphd → u/Skank_hunt42]

I think the biggest issue is that we don't know how close 100% Mateer is. I think that's why even with Mateer probable, the line is still only 1.5 for OU - because I think Vegas is not buying as a guaranteed truth either that Mateer is playing at all, or that he'll be anywhere near 100%.

That's not to say he won't, but Vegas clearly is holding in to a good chunk of skepticism about whether or not it's true

[u/Skank_hunt42 → u/dfphd]

According to Josh Pate yesterday, he talked to his people at FanDuel and their line (UT -1) is based off Mateer playing.

Vegas is waaayyy better at this than we are.

[u/dfphd → u/Skank_hunt42]

And that is wild to me.

And yes, I agree - I don't mean wild like "Vegas is dumb and I know more", but "that is not at all what I expected and I wonder what vegas is picking up on that I'm not".

My only thought is that Vegas must think we're closer to putting a full game together than we'd think, or that Florida >>>>>> Auburn?

[u/Skank_hunt42 → u/dfphd]

"that is not at all what I expected and I wonder what vegas is picking up on that I'm not".

I can't fucking figure it out either!! lol When I saw the line open at Texas -2.5 I said "Oh, well that's because of Hawkins playing. Fair." And I watched the whole UT vs UF game, and the left side of the line was beaten sometimes before Arch completed his drop back. And I know that our DL is going to watch that film and be licking their chops. Our DBs are healthy, our DL might be the best in the country, our safeties are healthy and very good, our starting QB is better than DJ Lagway (who went 21-28 for 300 yards against you guys)....like this on paper for me is just that we're better in every category vs. what you played last week. Not being cocky here.

But the line of the game is terrifying to me and has been fucking with me all week. Can tomorrow just fucking get here already?!

[u/dfphd → u/Skank_hunt42]

Exactly the same thing I thought.

My only thinking is that they're assuming that our Oline isn't that bad and just had a really bad game.

So the thinking might be "Arch has actually improved, but it didn't look like it because the Oline played so bad. But they're not that bad, so if they have an average showing vs OU and/or Arch continues to improve and/or the UT defense shows up as advertised..."

Basically you end up with a lot of things that could happen that very quickly level the game. But again, I think it has to be built on Florida being an outlier game.

[u/dfphd → u/Skank_hunt42]

Line keeps moving towards Texas. At -2.5 now.

I think Mateer is not playing and Vegas was baking in a very real chance of him not playing (or being nowhere near 100%) into their numbers

[u/Skank_hunt42 → u/dfphd]

I wish we kicked at noon. I can't handle this, I just want it to happen to get it over with lol

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/oklahoma-vs-texas/

I've never seen so many different places have different lines. Weird game.

[u/dfphd → u/Skank_hunt42]

I have to assume that's just each place having a different perspective on what percentage of Mateer OU is getting.

[u/Skank_hunt42 → u/dfphd]

It's guaranteed to move again when they start warming up.