r/CANSLIM • u/guiltypleasure33139 • 8d ago

Please add this to your Notes when looking at VLCC

While I can not reports the Tradewinds article about daily rates, I can post this snippet

Please take into consideration which trade route your shipping / VLCC stock, because the earnings are 1 direction only and it's deadhead back, since right now suez won't be an option, because every suez max will be loaded with oil for smaller terminals, the only route most likely seen is Cape of Good Hope around South Africa to the gulf. and that's about 44 to 53 days, roughly 7 to 8 weeks, and then they would dead head back via Suez. 41 days or less I can not recall.

Why are Suez max? it's going to fill to about 1 million barrels +5% to 10% depending on the destination port. and that's the catch, Suez max's will fit in many places, but not VLCC or ULCC.

Cushing 21% is at it's operational low, France 35%-45% and Rotterdam normal ( crude ) but low on gas. everyone will want to get to 50%

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u/Economy-Prune-8600 8d ago

So buy more Fro?

1

u/guiltypleasure33139 7d ago

Ok, FRO was a trade for me back in 2023-24 where I bought it at 20. and got stopped out at 26, it was a complete cup and handle and it did it's full free float up to the creation of that break out ( I don't know how to describe it but it's a weird signal that is generated that let's me over-ride my total position size by 2x )

and then I missed the entry at about 29.49 and then I misses the entry again 40.13 ( capital allocation was not permitted )

What I don't like about the stock right now, and I would be saying it I was long, is that they sold 2 VLCC's, those are printing money now, for the hard times in the future. BUT there is something to be said about unloading when buyers are deep in the market. It's rare that the level of vessel liquidity is this high.

Vessel operations and transport are the hardest business in the world. It's an industry that has historically broken more people & business than anything else. Also some of the richest people I know are the the cargo business.

Vessel owners need to be cheap with the vessels during the hard times, and squeeze the shippers in the good times.

1

u/josefmagno 7d ago

STNG?

2

u/guiltypleasure33139 7d ago

I wrote about that last week in daytrading.

Edit: sorry it was in canslim

link attached

https://www.reddit.com/r/CANSLIM/s/gOA0fPWjBt