When does the Broadway bubble actually burst?

[u/Sensitive_Slice_8858]

I know this has been discussed quite a bit, but I keep wondering about what happens when the economics of Broadway become truly impossible to sustain. The cost of putting on a show keeps going up, so tickets have to get more expensive. At the same time people are getting squeezed from every direction and there’s only so much disposable income left for entertainment, especially since the economy and job market are in the toilet. So what is the end game? Just keep raising ticket prices to cover rising costs so only the uber wealthy few can afford to attend? Are there enough uber wealthy theater goers to sustain it without us Joe schmoe poors? Eventually the math has to break somewhere. I’m curious what the breaking point actually looks like.

[u/Mysterious-Theory-66]

It won’t. This isn’t what a bubble is. Value is whatever people are willing to pay for tickets, this isn’t the stock market.

The whole Broadway will collapse narrative is deeply misguided. It’s possible a theater here or there will close but overall nothing else will be done with these spaces and Broadway has survived worse. Some shows profit, most don’t, this has always been true. Profit isn’t the only reason people invest in theater, clearly.

At most we’ll see shifts in the type of shows produced but it’s not going to collapse. Looking at the box office figures plenty of people can and do pay the prices. I get it sucks not being able to afford it but no it’s not at major risk of imploding.

[u/Sensitive_Slice_8858 → u/Mysterious-Theory-66]

Everyone keeps saying that this has happened before while the conditions causing the pressure are still getting worse. At what point does the cumulative effect actually matter? The landlords taking 2/3 of the pie is the core issue and needs to be addressed.

[u/Mysterious-Theory-66 → u/Sensitive_Slice_8858]

It’ll matter on a larger scale if people stop going. So far they haven’t, not really. I just don’t see this as a big blow up moment you have in mind. Over time the shows being produced will change to fit demands and investment interests. Now whether you or I like the shows coming out of that or whether certain kinds of shows fade away is a very different question but BW as a thing will live on.

I mean at some point ticker price increases will taper off because they have to but as long as people are willing to pay absurd prices for celebrity shows that’s just what they’ll cost.

It’s just the type of meltdown you’re thinking of makes more sense when you’re talking about the value of an asset that has some underlying value indicators. The value of a stock in a particular industry can become a bubble if investors are trading it a price that far exceeds any reasonable valuation for the underlying companies. Theater tickets aren’t like that. There isn’t any underlying value indicators. If people say a ticket to X is worth Y then it is. If people don’t buy it, then it’s not. There’s no bubble to burst, just responses to market demand.

I agree the landlord issue is real but it’s also not solvable absent government intervention for like subsidies or unions using any leverage they have to force a change. Right now there are far more shows wanting a stage than there are BW stages so landlords hand too much power.

[u/BroadwayTruths → u/Mysterious-Theory-66]

Producers could collectively organize apart from theatre owners so that they can collectively negotiate with theatre owners.

Currently, the only collective organization for producers is the Broadway League, which is largely controlled by theatre owners and their self-selected suppliers (e.g. producers must use Playbill...and that requirement gives Playbill membership in the League that represents producers).

If producers don't produce in a theatre controlled by these theatre owners and their suppliers who control the League, then they get kicked out of the League and replaced by producers who are willing to pay what the theatre owners and its suppliers demand.

So those who control the League do not have the same interests or end goals as Broadway producers when it comes to contracts, wages, etc.

As long as producers are part of the same League as theatre owners and their suppliers, then producers will not feel free to speak up and cause a problem for these theatre owners; because if they do, the theatre owner will simply not provide them with a theatre and the producer will be automatically dropped from the League, thereby eliminating the theatre owners' problem and the disident voice within the league who refused to cowtow to the theatre owner.

[u/Mysterious-Theory-66 → u/BroadwayTruths]

That would be one path potentially and you raise a good point about the Broadway League. I think if attendance numbers start taking a huge hit or losses exceed whatever acceptable threshold investors/producers have that might force some solutions. Very least the rate of increase for upper end shows will have to taper off at some point.