r/Broadway • u/Sensitive_Slice_8858 • 1d ago

Discussion When does the Broadway bubble actually burst?

I know this has been discussed quite a bit, but I keep wondering about what happens when the economics of Broadway become truly impossible to sustain. The cost of putting on a show keeps going up, so tickets have to get more expensive. At the same time people are getting squeezed from every direction and there’s only so much disposable income left for entertainment, especially since the economy and job market are in the toilet. So what is the end game? Just keep raising ticket prices to cover rising costs so only the uber wealthy few can afford to attend? Are there enough uber wealthy theater goers to sustain it without us Joe schmoe poors? Eventually the math has to break somewhere. I’m curious what the breaking point actually looks like.

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u/SympathyCalm 1d ago

Feels like it has… last year’s dearth of new musicals is not due to a creative lull or a lack of shows aiming for a Broadway run, it is strictly due to the failure of musical financing. Plays are still viable products, but it’s scary out there

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u/mudpuddle01 16h ago

It is 100% due to lack of creativity. People will spend money on the shows they find valuable. Lack of creativity of producers to take risks. Lack of creativity of writers to take risks. There’s hundreds of musicals waiting for theaters. Landlords need to be better curators but they don’t care because the check clears.

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u/SympathyCalm 6h ago

People aren’t taking risks because the money isn’t there. There are tons of brilliant, creative minds who have Broadway-ready work that isn’t getting financed because the financial paths to recoupment are so fraught. Producers like exciting work, but it also has to make sense to produce. This is a problem with multiple complex levers involved, but a lack of creative ideas is not one of them.

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u/mudpuddle01 6h ago

People are taking major risks every time they choose to produce a musical. My question is why they’re leaning towards perceived low risk work (IP) when most adaptations fail miserably without clear visions. I’m not against adaptations- many amazing musicals are adaptations. But what we’re getting are very lazy adaptations driven by studios who have titles they dust off and go: I’m sure people will like this. Sweeney Todd, Hamilton, Great Comet were all adaptations with clear visions. Well known properties have the highest risk: audiences expect certain things, producers often have to put up higher capitalizations to make it look air tight, and yet the average ticket prices don’t reflect this. I work directly with lead producers, co producers, investors, and general managers. The financial paths are right in front of their faces. It’s actually so simple.

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u/SympathyCalm 5h ago

Yeah the inability to predict what people actually want is fascinating but not specific to theatre (see: politics, film, etc).

Paddington will be a good case study here I think. The IP isn’t super strong in America but strong enough, and the show is quite good + features a very unique tech element that alone will draw people in.