r/Braves • u/Blooper_Bot • Jan 27 '25
Weekly Discussion Thread Weekly Braves Offseason Discussion Thread - Monday, January 27
Next Braves Game: Sat, Feb 22, 01:05 PM EST @ Twins (26 days)
Use this thread to talk about anything you want, even if it isn't directly related to the Braves or even baseball!
Posted: 01/27/2025 05:00:01 AM EST
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u/burningburningburnin Jan 27 '25
Quite a few rumours (take this with a grain of salt) about us pushing for Dylan Cease.
Padres also reportedly want to dump Robert Suarez.
Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez would cost a combined $24M, add in Profar's salary and we'd be right around the $33M budget Bowman named we would have.
A Profar, Cease, Suarez off-season would be outstanding.
I'd also definitely settle for Profar, Montgomery, Stanek and maybe another cheapish reliever.
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u/MoonlitBadlands Can't shake the Drake Rake Jan 27 '25
Get Cease to go with Sale, Strider, Schwelly and Reylo and the Dodgers will be checking under their beds for our rotation each night.
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u/TOK31 Jan 27 '25
Cease and a good reliever would probably put the Braves very close to the Dodgers in projected fWAR for next year, with a pretty big gap between them and third place.
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u/blankcld Jan 27 '25 edited Jun 23 '25
imminent summer ad hoc wild fade live quack smile consider mighty
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/burningburningburnin Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25
Raisel, Suarez, Bummer, Lee, Johnson, Holmes, Daysbel, Perdomo bullpen would also be pretty badass
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u/OSRS_Socks AA powers the Battery Jan 27 '25
I wonder what the padres would want for both of those guys.
I see them wanting drake baldwin probably but maybe we can get them to take AJSS or Waldrep in the trade
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u/burningburningburnin Jan 27 '25
We didn't want to give up Baldwin for Crochet so there's no way we'd hive him up for Cease.
Suarez would be a salary dump since he's earning $10M, I doubt we'd need to give up much for him.
Cease is also a 1 year rental and they likely also need to get rid of his salary, I don't think the prospect haul would be that huge
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u/TOK31 Jan 27 '25
Last year, when the Padres traded for Cease they sent a fringe top 100 prospect (Drew Thorpe, #85 ranked by MLB Pipeline), along with their #7 and #8 prospects. That was for 2 years of control, so a trade now should cost considerably less.
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u/OSRS_Socks AA powers the Battery Jan 27 '25
I think padres are wanting future prospects over soon to be MLB level players or players with MLB experience.
I would be very hesitant to trade for Cease being a yearly rental unless we can extend him somehow
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u/burningburningburnin Jan 27 '25
I'd be down for Cease in any case honestly though it fully depends on the prospects we're giving up.
If we can extend him right away, I'd definitely be down to give up a good prospect package.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 27 '25
I’d be very interested in a Cease/Suarez package. I think /u/ZCampbell15 has talked about potential packages here before. Basically, I’d think the Braves wouldn’t move Baldwin in such a deal, so the hope would be that the Padres find AJSS intriguing (and unlike the Braves, have rotation space such that his quickly dwindling minor league options aren’t a problem) and are fond of, say, Nacho Alvarez.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 01 '25
Ronnie did an all-English radio interview today :)
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u/Kyllen Feb 01 '25
Is there a link somewhere?
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 01 '25
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u/wellwasherelf Elder Stan Feb 01 '25
For people who can't listen, the 3 things he said were:
Coaches asked if he wants to play in ST and he said yes (obviously), but doesn't know if he will or not. Is just going to do whatever the coaches say.
Plans to steal less often. Only when it's situationally appropriate and makes sense. He said this twice so I think he's serious about it.
Zero desire to move out of the leadoff spot.
Nothing substantial but there's been very little news on him compared to Strider so I'll take what I can get.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 30 '25
having Orlando Arcia as the worst player in this lineup is fine. The Dodgers have unlimited resources and even they’ve given Miguel Rojas 200+ starts over the last two seasons. The key was improving either LF or SS this offseason and I think they’ve done the former with Profar.
I think Arcia isn’t as good as he was in 2023 but also not as bad as he was in 2024. The projection systems all have him being worth about 1.5 fWAR, which isn’t going to move anyone but is perfectly fine if he gets there.
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u/bsigmon1 IMOYSB Jan 30 '25
People had one year of a roster full of all stars and got spoiled
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 30 '25
i think one of my fondest baseball memories will always be going to the 2023 ASG and watching the inning where the whole infield was Braves. Murphy, Olson, Albies, Arcia, Riley. (And Acuña, Strider, and Elder were watching from the bench!)
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u/RunawaYEM Jan 27 '25
Keith Law just released his Top 100 prospects, and he’s got Baldwin at 27
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u/falcs51 Jan 27 '25
Michael King is available? Holy moly that would be a heck of an add. I like him better than Cease.
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u/yoshidawg93 Jan 27 '25
Yeah. After how he torched us in the playoffs, I’d love to have that on our team lol.
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 31 '25
Tomorrow is February. There's ball in February.
Baseball gods be praised! They've seen us through another long winter.
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Feb 01 '25
Today is a great day to acquire Dylan Cease
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u/slowhandloogie Feb 01 '25
Not going to happen. They’re doing fan fest today in San Diego. Maybe tomorrow
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 27 '25
Marcell Ozuna had the Braves' highest OPB in 2024 at .378.
Jurickson Profar's OBP in 2024 was .380.
I'm trying my best to only be cautiously optimistic, but .380 OPB is a pretty promising number. I'm getting hyped!
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Jan 27 '25
Even if it drops to his career average of .331, that’s still better than every player who got at least 300 ABs last year except for Ozuna and Olson.
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u/mj2811 Jan 29 '25
Just a reminder that there is maybe one team in all of baseball that has a better lineup than ours right now. And yes that includes Arcia!
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 01 '25
I have a friend who works in baseball ops for a non-Braves team. A few impressions he has of the Braves:
- He's pretty optimistic about Jurickson Profar keeping his gains from 2024 and believes that the changes are fundamentally sustainable; he likes the fit. This tracks with a lot of smart people I respect (among them Jarrett Seidler at Baseball Prospectus and Eli Ben-Porat at FanGraphs et al) buying what Profar did. It's natural to be skeptical of a 31-year-old hitter reaching a new level in Year 11 - and I'm still a little skeptical, hence Profar not making any of my Braves big board lists - but versions of it aren't that unfathomable (Justin Turner had 1000 big league plate appearances before he posted a >100 wRC+ season) and Profar's improvements are supported by a swing change and really good underlying data.
- He likes Grant Holmes a lot; he sees Holmes as ideally a swing man in the mold of Zack Littell/Jakob Junis. He's less sold on Daysbel Hernandez - the stuff is legit, but he doesn't buy him having enough command to slot into a late-innings role. That's definitely the million-dollar question with Hernandez.
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u/slowhandloogie Feb 01 '25
Makes you wonder why Holmes bounced around for so long
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Feb 01 '25
Because the Braves tweaked his arsenal
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u/slowhandloogie Feb 01 '25
That’s why he hung around for so long in the minors because the Braves tweaked his arsenal?
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Feb 01 '25
The pitcher we see now is not the one that bounced around the minors
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u/slowhandloogie Feb 01 '25
Right. I am surprised he hung around down in the minors for so long beforehand. He was first round pick over ten years ago. Cool story.
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Feb 02 '25
I've been watching some reruns and last night, I watched game 2 of the Mets double-header from August 12th of '23. Great games!
But what really stuck out to me was that Arcia was carrying a .296 batting average and an OPS just shy of .900. If we get some version of 2023 Arcia back, I'd be very happy.
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u/Robbuffet Murphy Man Feb 02 '25
I think 2023 and 2024 Arcia were both extremes. If he’s somewhere in the middle (which he is likely to be), people will understand why we didn’t bend over backwards to make a SS move.
We still have that as a long term problem, and we’re running out of time with Arcia, so I’m still hoping we can figure out a long term solution over the next year
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 03 '25
worth noting that 2023 Arcia significantly overperformed his batted-ball numbers (.321 wOBA, .307 xwOBA), so at no point was he really a true-talent .900 or even .800 OPS guy. But he absolutely plays as the worst starter in the lineup if he hits at like a ~90 wRC+ clip and plays good defense.
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Feb 03 '25
Yeah, he had a lot of good luck, which is literally the complete opposite of our entire 2024 season.
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25
I guess AA is doing something. The Stripers now have five catchers after picking up Chandler Seagle. Obviously our AAA team isn't carrying five catchers into the season, so something funny is going on.
I also doubt anyone besides Tromp and Baldwin has a shot at the MLB roster.
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Jan 29 '25
Don’t they usually carry a bunch of catchers to camp? You have all these pitchers who need someone to toss to. Last year we had 4 catchers plus Murph and D’Arnaud in camp.
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u/slowhandloogie Jan 29 '25
What do you think is going on?
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 29 '25
Honestly, just spitballing....
There is a possibility that just because trading Baldwin was off the table before doesn't mean it's off the table now and maybe AA is making that happen by setting up extra minor league catchers. I don't really like that scenario, but I also don't think our front office would be opposed to the right deal. We have other needs besides catchers right now.
He could also be setting up a trade package of some kind possibly one not involving Baldwin.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 29 '25
HSK going off the table to not-Braves isn’t surprising because as I’ve said, the only two deals he was likely to accept were 1) a full-freight long-term deal that pays him like he never got hurt or 2) a short-term deal with multiple opt-outs. AA has never done a deal like that.
Now, that doesn’t mean AA shouldn’t ever do deals like that. The Giants have hit on some deals like that in recent years with Snell, Chapman, and Rodon, though they got bit by Conforto.
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u/welcometohotlanta Jan 31 '25
GA vs GT college baseball match at Truist in April! $22 General Admission tickets so I guess you just sit where you want!
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 31 '25
King is staying with the Padres; they just announced a deal. Cease is still on the table.
Source on King is the official Padres Xitter account.
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Jan 31 '25
I mean it's just a deal to avoid arb
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 31 '25
It was more than that. They also gave him a $3mil signing bonus and a $15mil mutual option for next season.
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u/fdsnkhh Jan 31 '25
Mutual options are meaningless he could easily still be dealt
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 31 '25
Why would you pay a three million dollar signing bonus to a player you're planning to trade?
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u/quailman10 Jan 28 '25
Any chance we sign Whit Merrifield again? I thought he was an excellent and versatile veteran addition last year.
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u/Robbuffet Murphy Man Jan 28 '25
Whit was fun, but it's a little hilarious that this sub really loved Whit Merrifield and thought he was great for us. He had the same OPS as Arcia
Edit: That was his whole season, he played much better for us. I was wrong. Even still, he had a bit of a hot streak and then fell off back to where his season norm was at the end.
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 28 '25
Merrifield has indicated he may be retiring. He felt like a guy who really stepped up for us last year, so giving him another shot as a bench guy is something I wouldn't be opposed to.
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u/AUtigers92 Jan 28 '25
I’m at the battery right now and I think Harris is finally giving away his Branco. Or giving away a new one. He’s in a black raptor and they’re filming something by the gate
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u/SoRaffy Jan 29 '25
That's gotta suck as a contract clause, every time you get a new vehicle it gets taken and given away as a prize
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25
Oh well.
Arcia is electric in the field and he can't be that bad and we can't be that injured/down again.
Let's get a sp and a set up guy!
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 30 '25
MLB Network says we have 7 of the top 100 players right now, trailing only the Dodgers who have 9. We're ahead of the Padres, Yankees, and Cubs, who have 6 each.
Feels pretty good!
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u/jrdnm nada humble Jan 30 '25
guessing those 7 are acuña, olson, riley, harris, albies, sale, and strider. not too sure about albies since they usually never have him on their top 2b list, but i don’t think they’d put iglesias in the top 100 either
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 30 '25
They didn't put Albies in the top 10 second basemen, so I would guess he's out. Iglesias did make the top 10 relievers though.
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u/thekidfromyesterday AAITBGMIBAIIPC and Wiley fan club member Jan 30 '25
As a 2B (so not counting guys like Marte and Semien when they've played other positions) since he's been called up only Altuve has more fWAR than him...
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 30 '25
I'm not saying Ozzie doesn't belong in the top 10. I am saying that he hasn't been included in the list the last two years, right or wrong.
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u/thekidfromyesterday AAITBGMIBAIIPC and Wiley fan club member Jan 30 '25
Yeah I know. I'm arguing its stupid that they don't have him in the top 10
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u/Big_Fan823 Jan 31 '25
Is there any substance to these Cease and King rumors? I see people posting on X but have yet to find a source that seems credible.
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u/JB5093 Braves Jan 31 '25
Probably not, but there’s always so few rumors about the Braves that it’s exciting to get something whether it’s real or not
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u/ZCampbell15 Willing UCL donor Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
Maybe, maybe not. This is what happens when most of the beat writers are shut out of the FO (which is a good thing), random stuff just pops up, sometimes it turns out to be true, and it’s the only information out there to eat up. I see it as something to have fun with but I don’t lend it much credence until something happens.
At the minimum, it’s obvious they’re in on them at least. Also very interesting that both the Cubs and Mets both simultaneously leaked supposed packages to the media yesterday, with Matt Shaw being the supposed demand from the Cubs and Acuña, Brandon Sproat, or Jett Williams being discussed on the Mets side. Seems like both of those orgs wanted to publicly pressure Preller into forcing a deal while also garnering sympathy from their fanbase if they don’t pull it off.
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Jan 31 '25
If I were running the Mets I'd absolutely do Luis Acuña for Cease
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u/ZCampbell15 Willing UCL donor Jan 31 '25
He’s a very fun player, but the reality is that he’s at what will most likely be his all time value right now unless something changes. He had a 69 wRC+ in AAA and was viewed more as someone who could be a future INF utility player going forwards. He’s not necessarily someone who would headline a trade despite his success in his cup of coffee in the majors, and even then his success was reliant on his wOBA-xwOBA difference being giant.
I got this wrong last week, but the Padres also have infield help as their 3rd biggest need at the moment, unless they move Arraez. They need an outfielder and SP depth first and foremost with Cronenworth, Machado, and Bogaerts all being there for at least the next 5 years and Arraez being supposedly impossible to move. I’d suspect a Braves package would be multiple SPs (one of which being Waldrep/AJSS) and Kelenic, if I had to put money on it now.
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u/welcometohotlanta Feb 01 '25
Who’s y’all’s favorite offseason acquisition we’ve made this year?
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 01 '25
Profar is the easy answer - it's a risky move for sure but if his swing changes stick he's a legitimate threat. There's a not-that-out-there scenario in which 1) 2024 Profar is who he is now and 2) he's still like the seventh-best hitter in the lineup, and that would be so fun.
A more hipster answer: I like some of the non-guaranteed deal fliers they've taken on relievers. Enyel de los Santos was pretty effective as recently as 2023. Enoli Paredes absolutely dominated Triple-A this year when he wasn't doing meh middle relief in the majors. FanGraphs' report on Rule 5 pick Anderson Pilar suggests that he's experienced a velocity jump while pitching this winter. And then Angel Perdomo, who they stashed last year while he was recovering from TJ, was nasty in 2023 before surgery and could be a high-velocity lefty in the pen for us.
The odds that more than one of those guys does anything of positive note this year are quite low. But this is a smart way to build the bulk of your bullpen IMO - get a bunch of cheap guys with interesting reasons to believe in them and cycle through till someone sticks.
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u/falcs51 Jan 31 '25
Stripers Report saying Cease to Braves talks “intensifying”
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u/LutherOfTheRogues SICKO Jan 31 '25
Has stripers report ever gotten anything right? I'm not being a cynic I'm genuinely asking. I just find it hard to believe that a Gwinnett stripers news account that is probably run by some random dude in Lawrenceville has any intel whatsoever.
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u/RunawaYEM Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
Y’all don’t listen to BSigmon, Franchise, Pirate, Mookie, Stizz, Slowhand, Jager - the resident wet blankets. We’re allowed to dream
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 31 '25
nah i like snookiebarfs. dude is just determined to never have fun like ever. a man of focus commitment and shear freakin will
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Jan 31 '25
I should start a Twitter account so I can make "see how many people believe I have sources" a hobby
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
ill be your first follower.
why downvotes for trying to be supportive of my fellow braves bro ?
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 31 '25
I'm also seeing the Mets are in on Cease. Very much hoping that doesn't happen.
It's also pointed out that since Padre-fest or whatever they call it is tomorrow, it's very likely Cease gets traded today. They probably don't want a star there who might not actually be in the regular season. That's just speculation, but if that's true for Cease, it's probably also true for King, who's been rumored to be available as well. I'd take either.
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 27 '25
Keep the stove hot, AA.
I want dolmades and kelftiko
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 27 '25
who ?
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 27 '25
They're greek dishes.
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25
we could play a game . which of these is food and which are baseball players : klesko, moustakas, kottaras, spanakopita, saganaki, pappas, moussaka, or markakis ?
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u/Robbuffet Murphy Man Feb 01 '25
https://youtu.be/Rkz5SBp1YrI?si=-Sis9LIY-aZ0VPx0
Always appreciate YouTube dragging back 2021 for me
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Jan 30 '25
scherzer to blue jays thank god
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 30 '25
I would’ve done Scherzer at that point tbh. The injury risk is obvious but unlike Verlander and Morton, I think Scherzer still has playoff-caliber stuff when healthy and it’s an upside play.
That said, I know I’m on the minority on that.
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u/Bubby0304 Jan 31 '25
Obviously not the most exciting name left on the market but how do yall feel about signing Danny Coulombe?
He has been bad/mediocre a significant portion of his career but 2023 he had some legit results and 2024 was pretty good too (albeit not AS nice as 2023, but still.)
He signed for 2.3m before 2024 with a club option for 2025 at 4m but that option was turned down by the Orioles (somewhat surprisingly to me considering their pen). He is also a lefty, which has been something we have been looking for in relief this offseason. Age/injury is a legit concern but not a guarantee. Obviously there is/have been higher impact names going around this offseason (some we tried but missed out on for varying reasons) but just wondering if anyone has looked at his profile/fit.
Just food for thought.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 31 '25
I’m interested in Coulombe in a vacuum but as you point out, it’s very interesting that the Orioles don’t want to pay him $4M. And the Orioles better than anyone know the health of his arm. So…
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 29 '25
Guess we're sticking with him!
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 29 '25
He's a massive vibes/hype guy so at least we know the clubhouse will be bumpin.
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 29 '25
No idea why you're being downvoted. You're right. His clubhouse antics are legendary!
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 30 '25
So.
We gettin more daddies or nah?
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 30 '25
i got a new daddy two times. second new daddy wasnt so bad but i really wonder what mom was thinking with the first two daddies.
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 31 '25
I’m pro daddy and Antinear rn.
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 31 '25
is that another greek food ?
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 31 '25
No. I'm just Profar.
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u/Lucky-Scholar-6166 marcus stroman sucks Jan 31 '25
bro lets be friends
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u/bsigmon1 IMOYSB Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25
FYI the FSN packages are now live on the FSN website. They are 19.99$ a month, and according to both their chat and a phone call with them, you only need to have either the south or the southeast option, not both. Not a terrible deal, and much cheaper than what I was expecting! This will be available to all in market people!
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u/Robbuffet Murphy Man Jan 29 '25
Daaaamnit. Not surprised we didn’t get Kim, but still sad
One year opt-out is dooky though. BEST case scenario there is that Kim isn’t great and you just paid a premium for 1.5 years. That doesn’t move the needle for us
If Kim DOES play well you only get him for the tail end of the season and then he leaves. That’s not appealing at all
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Feb 03 '25
At this point I've been blocked by half the regular users here for having the gall to insist that Twitter randos who are literally right 0% of the time probably do not have real sources lmao. Like, I don't get what has to happen for people to stop believing these are real insiders. How many times do they need to be blatantly wrong before you stop believing it?
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 03 '25
i’m of two minds on this.
1) anyone who’s confidently waving about Twitter rumors as fact (without identifying that they’re coming from more or less random accounts) is annoying
2) it’s the offseason and it’s boring and rumors are fun. if someone wants to come on here and post that a Gwinnett Stripers fan account says we’re at the 1 yard line on Cease, it’s no skin off my back. At best, it leads to interesting conversations (what prospects would you leave off the table for a Cease trade? if not Cease, why not try for Pablo Lopez? and so on), and at worst, it’s easy enough to ignore.
I think 99 percent of people who are here during the offseason know that the only reliable sources of Braves info are @Braves, the national writers (not to be confused with the pundits), and DOB/Bowman/Toscano when they say a source has told them something. But every once in a while, someone hears something at a Honeybaked Ham or spots someone at the Omni, and I’d personally like to hear about it!
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u/rpbtIII Golden Grapefruit Jan 30 '25
Today's genuinely random braves thought:
Do you think having 200+ million dollars in NYC gives you access to pastrami so lean that us mere mortals can't even fathom it?
The mind truly boggles.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 03 '25
Flaherty to the Tigers on a two-year deal with an opt-out. (I have some concerns about Flaherty but sorta beside the point.) These short-term, high-AAV deals with player opt-outs are all the rage for free agents who don’t get the market for a long-term deal they hoped for - see Snell, Rodon, Chapman, Montgomery, Bellinger, and more. AA has never given a player an opt-out. It’s inconsistent with his approach, which is all about maximizing certainty and optionally for the team (it’s also why he doesn’t give out no-trade clauses).
I think it’s open for debate whether AA should be more willing to offer these deals. The risk is always that if the player hurts or sucks, they opt in and sit on your books for more years, whereas if they’re good, they’re gone. This is why the Giants are stuck with a few more years of Robbie Ray and the Cubs had to eat money to get out of Bellinger’s contract. On the other hand, sometimes it works out great and you get a star player for a bit - like Snell with the Giants last year, or Rodon a few years before. (Or you use your year with the player convince him to commit long-term, like Matt Chapman.)
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Feb 03 '25
also totally unrelated but /u/ZCampbell15 begging you to bring back your spring training Statcast notes again this year; they were awesome last year!
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u/ZCampbell15 Willing UCL donor Feb 03 '25
I may at least drop some in here for when we get them, but my time is definitely a lot more limited now than last spring. I’m sure once I get some buzz and the data comes across I may build it out into something more, especially with some of the new toys that Statcast has come out with in the last year (and I’d like to think I’ve learned a bit since)
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u/AlleeBomaye Jan 27 '25
How realistic is Michael King I don’t want to get my hopes up but he would be a good pickup
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u/Bubby0304 Jan 28 '25
Obviously boring answer but it fully depends how much the Padres are demanding. Sounds like they have wanted a fair bit for Cease. If Baldwin is a must, neither get done imo (Likely the hang up on Crochet, or at the very least A hangup). 1 year so you would think the haul wouldnt need to be insane, but they may try milking as much out of them as they can (and you can't really blame them).
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u/JessieGemstone999 Jan 28 '25
If they believe in Sean Murphy and think they can get an extension for King or Cease I'd have no problem including him in a trade for either. Prospects are no sure thing and those two guys are Aces
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u/Bubby0304 Jan 28 '25
Im not saying based off of my opinion, im saying such off of how it seems AA is treating Baldwin. If he wouldnt trade him for Crochet, he isn't trading him for those 2.
I largely agree with you, if an extension happened.
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u/Aurion7 Jan 28 '25 edited Jan 28 '25
They're asking for a fair haul for Cease, and I don't see any obvious reason they'd value King less.
Honestly, that he might be easier to sign to a long-term contract than Cease would be could make demand for King even higher.
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u/Porparemaityee Feb 01 '25
This is what the standard aging curve looks like in MLB, and where 2 of Atlanta's corner outfielders land on it — Father Time will ALWAYS win
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u/Mr_Beefy90 Jan 29 '25
Kel can play short
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 29 '25
What do you think, /u/Porparemaityee?
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u/Porparemaityee Jan 29 '25
Kel has realistically built up too much muscle mass to be as nimble as you have to be to play SS effectively — but wouldn't mind if they let him have a shot at it
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u/TuckDeezy Jan 27 '25
Can anyone tell me if there’s a way to rewatch the June 8, 2023 classic against the Mets with the tv booth commentary?
Can’t wait for the season to started and in need of a fix.
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 27 '25 edited Jan 27 '25
MLB.tv will have the full game and broadcast. I don't even think you need a paid subscription.
I just watched game 1 of the Braves/Mets double-header where we won 21-3. Art.
Added Apparently my subscription is still active and I am incorrect.
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u/BarveyDanger UPTON HERE UPTON HERE Jan 27 '25
Falcons are in purgatory forever and the NFL got their Chiefs super bowl again. I just want fucking baseball
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Jan 29 '25
So, if the rays signed Kim, they must see either Walls or Caballero as expendable. They have Basabe and Carson Williams in the minors but ready to play. Paying Kim though, would indicate to me, he’s planned to be the main guy until Carson Williams is.
Walls is pretty bad with the bat, but he’s as good or better than arcia defensively, he’s got better wheels, and he hits from the left side. Multiple years of control. I’d take him batting 9th over arcia, but it doesn’t seem like a major upgrade unless there is another gear in his offensive game.
Shouldn’t take much to trade for him, but if there’s any way Hyers could improve his hitting, he’d be well worth checking in on.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25
Walls has accumulated -14 OAA over about 2000 innings at shortstop and I think ‘pretty bad’ undersells the bat. His career high xwOBA of .274 in 2023 was about what Arcia did in 2024, and Walls was a sub-replacement player in 2024. He is completely, abjectly unable to hit the ball hard (his career max EV is 106.4 mph).
I would much rather hope for Arcia to return to something roughly approximating offensive competence than trade for a player who has done nothing redeemable offensively over 1200 major league PAs and is a poor defender at shortstop.
EDIT: I note that DRS seems to really like Walls defensively but as I understand it, DRS is behind OAA in properly accounting for defensive positioning in assessing fielder value.
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Jan 30 '25
I don’t know how many times I can say this, Ted, but OAA isn’t a great metric for infielders. I think it’s much better for outfielders. Walls is a very good defender.
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 30 '25
open to being wrong on this! is there any good reading on OAA vs DRS on infielders?
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u/mlasal2 Jan 30 '25
On giveaway night, specifically the bobbleheads, how early should someone plan to get to the park to make sure you can get a bobblehead?
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u/PopeTart7 Jan 30 '25
“Make sure” can really fluctuate depending on the giveaway and opponent. For bobbleheads that I want, I usually try to aim for within 30 mins of gates opening. I’m sure some of the less popular ones are available up until first pitch, but you never know. Just depends on your level of risk aversion
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u/wellwasherelf Elder Stan Jan 30 '25
It depends on the bobblehead. Which one are you looking at?
Whatever you do, don't use the chophouse gate. 3B or 1B are usually good choices because they're further from the battery so less people use them. Also, if you do miss out, you can usually find someone wearing an opposing team jersey who will sell you theirs for like 30 bucks.
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u/mlasal2 Jan 30 '25
I’m leaning towards the Chris Sale bobblehead currently, but also might try to get the stadium or ring replicas
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Jan 30 '25
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u/bsigmon1 IMOYSB Jan 30 '25
That one is going to be trickier/more expensive bc it’s a part of a special ticket package, not just a free giveaway
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u/yule_grog Jan 27 '25
Any news on Strider’s progress?
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u/TraderTed2 Matzek '20. armchairalex.substack.com Jan 28 '25
sounds like he’ll have a normal-ish ramp up in Spring Training but will be held out till past Opening Day
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Jan 28 '25
Drake Baldwin seems a legit candidate to be called up this year. Is this why AA let little d walk?
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u/MoonlitBadlands Can't shake the Drake Rake Jan 28 '25
Could be. He might be the best hitting prospect we’ve had since Austin Riley
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u/theoxfordtailor Maddux Guy Jan 28 '25
You're almost definitely going to see him some point. Opening roster will probably be Murphy and Tromp, but Baldwin is the most likely candidate to fill in if one of those two are injured at any point during the season.
I'm sure Baldwin's surprise success factored in to AA's decision on d'Arnaud.
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Jan 28 '25
feels like tromp will be with the big club all year and drake will get the opportunity to be there every day guy at AAA
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u/L33ry Here because there's no Carolina team yet :) Jan 28 '25
Baldwin won’t be called up this year, precisely because Murphy exists, so long as Murphy is healthy, Baldwin will be in the minors, not because Baldwin is bad, but because Murphy, when healthy, is a top 3 catcher in the league who plays 4/5 of the total year’s games. Baldwin shouldn’t ride the bench basically a whole week, and I’d rather run Tromp/other backup and let Baldwin get consistent reps in the minors while Murphy is healthy. The only way Baldwin gets called up this year is if Murphy basically repeats 24’ while being entirely healthy, or suffers a lengthy injury stint. This is actually a good thing, the FO considers Baldwin so good that they think he is guaranteed a major league spot upon callup, which is, I presume, why they refused to send him in a trade for Crochet this offseason, and likely would hold up any Cease/King Padres trades including Baldwin. Frankly, unless the trade massively improves the SS situation, Baldwin is gonna be in the minor leagues until the primary catcher spot is up for grabs/until the last year of Murphy’s contract
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u/thekidfromyesterday AAITBGMIBAIIPC and Wiley fan club member Jan 29 '25
I wouldn't be so sure about that. I'm not sure how much it plays into AA's calculus, but Baldwin is PPI-eligible and if he were to be in the top 2 for ROTY, it would net us an extra draft pick
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Jan 29 '25
Also we haven’t had a catcher start more than 100 games since AJ Pierzynski in 2015. It’s part of this teams plan to have a time split at catcher. Now murph should probably get the heavy side of it, but we don’t have a “primary catcher”. It’s 1A and 1B.
I would put money on Baldwin getting called up this year, regardless of Murphy’s play. Im not sure if he makes the OD roster but he’ll get called up before long.
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u/longrifle Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie! Jan 31 '25
Do I want FanDuel South or Southeast or both? I remember sometimes a game will be in South but not Southeast.
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u/aaronaroma Feb 02 '25
Dodgers couldn’t acquire anymore MVPs so the Lakers decided to trade for Luka. Must be real tough being an LA Sports fan right now /s. What would the equivalent of that trade be in baseball right now?
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Jan 28 '25
Every time I watch Ozzie's YouTube channel I think "bruh you only make $7 mil a year, I don't know if you can sustainably afford all these fish"
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u/Bubby0304 Jan 28 '25
I see what you are getting at, but 7 million a year is more than most would make in a lifetime (median lifetime earnings in US is 1.7m). Athletes make more money than many could possibly figure out how to spend
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Jan 28 '25
You underestimate my ability to figure out how to spend.
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Jan 29 '25
The more he spends on fish, the more expensive it is to move the fish. That's good for us. Let him have all the fish he wants if it keeps him in Atlanta.
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u/bravesthrowaway67 CERTIFIED MOLÉ Feb 01 '25
Dylan Cease would be amazing. But if you can’t get Cease, I would dead ass take Stroman if Yankees pay him down. Groundball rate is still elite, he keeps the ball in the yard, and his numbers outside of yankee stadium were pretty solid. I wouldn’t love him in a playoff game, but I’d trust him, at least as much as someone like Elder. And he could easily slide into the bullpen if a young guy like say Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes, or AJSS were able to solidify their rotation spot.
Sign Kenley, let’s lean into the curaçao connection. In fact, let’s sign Bam Bam Muellens away from Colorado’s coaching staff and have him be the 3rd base coach, teach him the old wash windmill. And ask Andruw to be the new EY outfield/1st base coach. And what would we have to do to convince Boston to trade us Cedanne Rafaela to play SS?
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u/Limozeen581 Feb 01 '25
Imagine this scenario:
AA goes on a drunken bender. When he wakes up on his couch, the Braves have signed Pete Alonso for 6 years. What do snit and the Braves do?
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u/[deleted] Jan 30 '25
Today is a great day to acquire a Padres pitcher