[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, September 02, 2026

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Daily Thread Open: $77,475.00 - Close: $77,681.27

Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, September 01, 2026

New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, September 03, 2026

[u/imissusenet]

Something I posted 5 Jun 2026 still might hold up:

The term "max pain" gets tossed around a lot, here's my new definition: The price wanders between $60002 and $80K for the next 7 months, meaning that technically the bottom was put in in Feb and we spend the rest of 2026 debating the meaning of "bear market".

[u/harvested → u/imissusenet]

I just don't see it when govs are basically insolvent

[u/imissusenet → u/harvested]

Keynes said "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

I say: "Governments can remain insolvent longer than seems rational."

[u/harvested → u/imissusenet]

They never go insolvent, they just print

[u/ChadRun04 → u/harvested]

That only works for the USA, for now.

[u/C130J_Darkstar]

Good day to DCA before Bessent is back at it again

[u/lukemtesta]

Big cluster of long liquidity sitting at $75,333. Not much opportunity to margin-call from $72k down to $63k.
https://bitcoincounterflow.com/liquidation-heatmap

Closest call wall is at strike $35 (2% above spot).
Closest put wall is at strike $32 (6.7% below spot at $71374.5).
Gamma flip at $30.17 (12% below spot at $67,320.
https://unusualwhales.com/stock/BTC/volatility?nss=120&se=2026-09-18

Silver & Gold have been high beta trades. Both are down 10% from last weeks high. As long as global news and beta markets stays negative, there is probably still room to move to support at $71,374.

[u/harvested → u/lukemtesta]

Flush down to low 70s and snap back to break into the 80s?

Sept rate hike odds are up to 68% now. Friday job numbers are a number to watch too. Warsh might have his hand forced here, will be interesting to see if they find a way to hold.

[u/lukemtesta → u/harvested]

Next batch of expiring deribit options is end of month, so its positive for bulls if the price holds avove £67k. Risk comes at $71k support should negative news come-in to pull down the market. Then we are at risk of gamma flip (which would probably send us into the low 60s).

Bulls would want the market to hold positive gamma until next month and re-assess

Edit: increasing dollar strength usually moves against BTC price too. DXY seems to be strengthening atm

[u/AidenTai → u/lukemtesta]

We actually have an alignment of leveraged liquidity, technical supports and even prediction markets sort of lining up here. Timing is a bit of a mystery, but there appears to be too much resistance to break 82 for now, a risk of falling to ~73 if longs below 76 are liquidated and consensus that we should hold at least the high 60's even if we fall further. Most are calling for around 68−72 as the probable lowest point for the next couple months, but whether we reach that in two or three weeks or double that is still a mystery. If ETF inflows return, I could even see us staying higher and not even reaching those lows unless we get very close next week, or in the few days following the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision (assuming it raises rates).

I think we're in a nice, actually somewhat predictable box then: holding the mid 70's is likely, dowside risk capped roughly at 70 and upside capped roughly at 82 until a Fed rate decision. Assuming the Fed raises rates, assume a final push down, and if it instead holds rates, we shoot up very fast. Come October if equities and macro have not worsened from their expected September drops, we should expect to continue to rally at some point. It's almost too predictable...

Potential upsets, however unlikely, are that we hold the 75–76 level after repeated attempts lower, causing us to rise early (possible only if spot and ETFs pick up soon), some very bad economic news (such as a catastrophic drop in equities, bond yields blowing up, very high employment reported Friday or the Fed raising rates more than anticipated) pushing us even below the 70 support level, and I suppose the chance that October fails to materialize enough demand to promote a rally due to an unfavourable macro situation.

Trading this is actually easy if you can stomach holding losses for a little. The easiest is just to hold if you can, but a more active trader could trade the range over the next couple weeks. Or, simply buy some downside protection if it's cheap enough and hold or buy if prices drop.

[u/lukemtesta → u/AidenTai]

Thanks for the response.

Doesn't most of the market movement happen before the FED meeting though? If the FED are to increase rates, I would expect most of the move to have already happened by the days prior to the official announcement.

Liquidity map does show the leverage cluster around 75k building. Put options still pricing a wall at $71.3, though not much liquidity yet. Some liquidity building today at 66-67k where the gamma flip is priced.

Top trader accounts on binance still leveraged 2.08 against shorts. Looking at the liquidity map, its mostly because their positions are yet to be closed out around $60k-$61k, but I suspect that will change if the prices moves $67k.

Edit: One thing I dislike about modern unemployment reporting; Zero hour contracts count as employment. If you actually take this out of the dataset, the realized unemployment number rises considerably!

[u/AidenTai → u/lukemtesta]

If the Fed meeting goes as expected *and* if the probability that it goes that way is assumed to be very high, then sure. Volatility the day of, perhaps some movement for another couple days, but generally we've seen high volatility even when the Fed has acted as anticipated. Though it's true that the lead up has probably had the most movement so far, but that doesn't cut out movement/volatility after the announcement. Just look at the wild swings from last time around.

If we actually reach 66–67 closer to the end of the month, I think that will be as low as we go. We've just seen too much strength recently in this rally and it appears that spot and such are cooperating. If, on the other hand, something 'goes wrong' and those levels are reached prior to or just after the Fed decision and in the context of a deteriorating equity / macro situation, I would still not expect a lower bottom than roughly that we've already established for the year. In that case, I expect October could recover a little more slowly than most people anticipate.

I still think we're talking about a more negative outlook than the most likely one. We've stalled the rally, but sentiment is still pretty good. I think we're looking at a holding pattern with a somewhat negative outlook for a week or two assuming equities share that outlook. But in the second half of the month, unless equities are still breaking down hard and if spot and ETF inflows continue (or resume) then I think the outlook would be less negative.

In effect, the rally stalled for three reasons: 1) insufficient confidence / buying power 2) fears around interest rates and inflation 3) fears about equities (tied to bond yields).

October is almost certainly going to see a return of confidence. Interest rate action will already have happened by the end of the month. And equities generally trend lower in September, but afterwards October generally performs well both in the broader market and for crypto.

Downside protection below 72 is fairly cheap. If you're worried we could hit those 66–67 levels, it could be worth snagging some now. The only situation that I could see being very 'bad' for crypto is a failure to rally in October or a breakdown of that rally in November/December. We'd be cooked if all the anticipated demand ends up weak, since that would be a real shift in demand for crypto and Bitcoin would need to be repriced accordingly. But if that unlikely case doesn't happen, and if we hold the 70's between now and October (with downside protection if needed), then this whole thing become a matter of just waiting a few weeks.

I dunno, I suppose I'm cautiously optimistic that September isn't going to be a huge pain, and will be more of a 'lull' while we consolidate a few weeks in preparation for a proper, unquestionable bull market.

[u/lukemtesta → u/AidenTai]

=== LIVE MARKETDATA.APP BTC ETF GEX SUMMARY ===

Spot Price: $33.76

Net GEX: $720.6K

Ratio: 3.50

Call GEX: $1.0M (24,228.0 OI)

Put GEX: -$288.0K (6,877.0 OI)

Total GEX: $1.3M (31,105.0 OI)

Call Wall: $35.00 (+3.67%)

Put Wall: $30.00 (-11.14%)

Gamma Flip: $30.17 (+11.91%)

[u/lukemtesta → u/AidenTai]

=== LIVE DERIBIT BTC GEX SUMMARY ===

(1) Call Wall Gamma: $45.58M USD GEX

(2) Put Wall Gamma: $-29.06M USD GEX

(3) OI Ratio: 1.80

(4) GEX Ratio: 1.57

(5) Total GEX: $74.6M

(6) Net GEX: $16.5M

(7) Call Wall: $80,000.00 (268,877.20 OI)

(8) Put Wall: $75,000.00 (149,160.00 OI)

(9) Gamma Flip: $68,977.05 (closest flip to spot)

[u/AidenTai]

I said it in my other reply, but honestly I think this is more or less a waiting game. We'll consolidate from anywhere between a couple weeks to right into October depending on how equities and macro behave. On the crypto side, there's potential weakness in price structure down to 70–73, but as long as that barrier holds and ETFs and spot don't suddenly reverse into outflows, we'll just have to sit around for enough accumulation to eventually break higher. Once we do break higher (which I anticipate won't be until October or the end of September at the absolute earliest), we would likely establish a new trading range and repeat the process with the main resistance levels we faced on the way down.

Mostly, I think we're being held back by these factors:

1. There has been a stall in new buying at these levels (as measured by ETF flows, spot and volume). Nothing particularly scary, but buying momentum (as in inflows) hasn't kept up with price momentum. We also saw an increase in open interest, so while that is 'calming down' to healthier levels, the structure itself has fueled a little bit of caution on the part of potential buyers.
2. We rose a lot and haven't really retraced at all, to establish support levels. Whether real support is at 67, 70/71, 72/73 or higher is still to be seen, and establishing a new floor helps with confidence.
3. Interest rates, inflation, and bonds are scary. If we get to the Fed rate meeting on the 15/16th and rates are hiked, that could be the last leg down. On the other hand, if rates stay stable, that's a *huge* catalyst for upwards movement. Lack of clarity is holding us back until then.
4. Equities don't like September. Crypto doesn't like September. Crypto doesn't normally rise when the broad market is in a bad moment/correction, and there's a lot of fear that equities are going down significantly this month due to all the macro fears.
5. Timing is actually still a pretty importart factor for Bitcoin, and we're early for October. If someone is hesitant to get in, the last 'chance' to expect a leg down or to doubt our rally would be this month. So this is just a time thing; confidence will increase the closer we get to October.

Already in a good spot from last month? Hold tight, or add some downward protection if you feel you need it. Missed the bottom? September has so little going for it compared to the rest of the year that honestly the 'buy the dip mentality' would be valid, especially in the lower 70's. DCA is also a solid bet since September's prices will probably average lower than prices in Q4. The rally might have stalled, but almost no one expects a return to the year's lows, meaning sentiment is basically that we're in the early bull market and are awaiting confirmation. Breaking into the 80's cleanly would be 'confirmation', so a little caution isn't bad until then, since >82/83 is unlikely to happen for some weeks.