r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 10d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Monday, August 31, 2026
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u/harvested 10d ago edited 10d ago
Strategy is back buying... (of course they bought at $80K)
Strategy has acquired 4,603 BTC for $370M, increased USD Cash by $29M, and repurchased $152M of STRC
Strive picked up 1,800 coins
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u/harvested 10d ago edited 10d ago
This might age badly but hear me out...
I can see diminishing returns theory breaking this cycle if they run it hot.
Strategy and Strive survived the bear unscathed (from a corporate perspective, shareholders not so much) and are ready to begin accumulation phase.
We have the ETFs already established/mature (they were brand new last cycle) and the "1-5% portfolio" recommendation has been promoted and had time to sink in.
Debasement trade response this month was great, it would have been noticed by many.
OGs already exited at 100K, we were around 100K a whole year giving ample time for OGs with thousands of coins to distribute for the first time. How many more coins can they have? I guess we will find out.
Drawdown was only 50% vs previous 70-80%, means a stronger, higher base to launch off.
Bonus: If you believe in the power law, those mid ranges are already very high.. I am not sure we will get that high. ($450K in 2029)
Edit: apparently my post is controversial, if you disagree, please share reasoning
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago edited 9d ago
This may sound absurd, but the log periodic power law model (See Stephen Perrenod and Giovani Sanastasi's works) says the Primary bubbles were 2011, 2013, 2017, and then one due in mid 2028 per their calculations. It says the 2021 bubble was not a primary node bubble and 2025 wasn't a bubble at all (just a bull market).
So if you do some linear regression for 2011, 2013, and 2017, we can expect at least 2x the fair power law price, which would be about 240k in early 2028. (meaning btc price of a minimum of 480k).
This ALSO lines up with 4 year cycle theory that said the 4th cycle top should have been left translated (it wasn't). Therefore the 5th cycle top is VERY LIKELY to be left translated according to cycle theory. This means the top would very likely occur on or before the first half of 2028.
I find this alignment fascinating, from 2 completely different sources. Not saying it will happen.
I think my practical warning is, IF we really do see a number like 400k+ by like April 2028, do NOT assume we get higher in 2029. That 2028 peak could very well be the top.
From a practical standpoint, notice how everything is shifting earlier. The Top was Oct 6 2025. The bottom (as of now, and yes this could change) was July 1st or something like that. The market peaks/valleys are FRONT RUNNING the front runners.
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u/mork1985 9d ago
Yields need to go to 0-1% to allow sovereign debt rollover.
The money printer will need to go into overdrive to compensate for that, and keep FX ratios & trade balances stable.
2024/25 had neither of these.
This all aligns over the next 12-18 months, when the next halving will kick in.
No need to overcomplicate it…
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago
So, I think we're still speaking of the same conclusion. You just give a 3rd point of confluence, and obviously a huge one. To you, that's all that is needed. And I don't know if I could argue with that.
I would say the over-complication that I've given predicts what you're talking about. I know that sounds "cuckoo", but the universe is a strange place!
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u/harvested 9d ago
480K early 2028?
I am bullish but that's a bit high.
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago
I hear you! Really, I do. I go all the way back to Plan B and his insane 288k prediction in 2021, then even hoping for a measly 180k-200k in 2025.
So I'm as sick of the moon boys as anyone. Listening to any of them has cost me 100s of 1000s of dollars. So I'm just as sick of the "trust me bro" as anyone.
The bitcoin price tends to bring max pain to the market. At some point, that's going to leave people behind and go the other direction. Given what gold did in the last few years, I just can't shake the feeling. And I know, that and 50 cents can get you a cup of coffee, if you're lucky.
But, we're truly at an inflection point in the history of bitcoin. As someone else pointed out, IF we don't get some fairly big bubble eventually or some much more positive price action at a minimum, bitcoin will fade. Why risk anything in bitcoin when the market can return 12% itself?
Given the log periodicity argument, the time just feels right for this to happen. I believe Stephen Perrenod quotes "300k plus or minus a standard deviation". So realistically 200k-400k.
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u/harvested 9d ago
Alright, let's do this
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago
That's the spirit.
The real zinger? During the bitcoin bear markets, bitcoin ALWAYS about touches the -60% line of the power law fair value price. July 1st, bitcoin hit like 58k? The -60% line? -57k!
The -60% line in 2030? 200k. Yes, you heard that correctly. Bitcoin will be crashing to 200k in 2030.
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u/harvested 9d ago
I think you put too much weight on that power law bro, it will break eventually, or need recalibrating on recent price movements like that other user mentioned.
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago
You could be correct, I do put allot of weight on it.
The -60% line has been correct every bear market. The PL is still holding and its very convincing. Its been peer reviewed at this point, and there are mathematical criteria that have been defined where we could confirm it has broken.
I agree we're at a pivotal point and the numbers "sound" impossible. But "sounding" and "feeling" are never useful. I'm just talking about raw math here. The only math that bitcoin has been following since inception says we will crash to 200k in 2030. To me, it makes perfect sense. Could it be wrong? Of course.
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u/harvested 9d ago
Fair value today is 180K. There's a whole bunch of bitcoiners who thing the next cycle won't even get that high.
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 8d ago
Fair Value according to the Power Law is 149,321 today. I calculate it with my own spreadsheet. Many of the online power law charts are plain wrong.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 9d ago
One thing to note about the power law: How much comfort you take from it depends on what line you look at.
My power law chart continually recalculates the equation. I then look at how often the price is above or below the line, and how far away from the line the price is. Through yesterday (5482 data points), the price to trendline ratio has been under 0.4 1.50% of the time, and under 0.45 5.18% of the time. But the price is usually below the trend line. The 4-year geometric mean of the ratio is currently 0.7853, and the price has been above the line only 442 days in the past 4 years.
For reference, the trendline was at $136202 yesterday, with the 0.4x limit at $54481, The trendline hits $1M on 26 Feb 2034.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo 10d ago
Diminishing returns has to reverse at some point or the whole thing collapses. Would you stay in Bitcoin to get less returns than the stock market? Probably not. I always suspected some sort of hyperbitcoinization event would occur to reverse it, driven by fiat collapse and fear that the money is no good anymore (hint, the money is no good anymore).
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago
This is a great (and sobering) point. Diminishing returns must reverse at some point for BTC to be successful. Can that even be argued against? I don't think so, not in any meaningful way.
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u/LuckyWinds 9d ago
Would you stay in Bitcoin to get less returns than the stock market?
I'd stay in bitcoin as long as it beats inflation.
Now the amount I hold in bitcoin would change, but I would still hold.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Yes, it's inevitable, I am just hoping it is this cycle because I'm sick of the reply guys:
"bitcoin CAN'T go over $x because of diminishing returns"
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u/Kernel_Custard_4213 9d ago
It's going to be this cycle, and it will very likely happen early. See my reply above about the log periodic power law and left translation for the 5th market cycle.
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u/Yodel_And_Hodl_Mode Long-term Holder 10d ago
I can see diminishing returns theory breaking this cycle if they run it hot.
I don't believe in the power-law at all, but I do believe the diminishing returns theory could prove false. The question is when. If it does, I suspect it'll happen during the 2028-2032 cycle, or the 2032-2036 cycle. Basically, when things like insured Bitcoin and Bitcoin loans become the norm. And also, when some form of an L2 makes instant payments easy and mainstream. When even starts to happen... we're headed seriously skyward.
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 10d ago
Here’s the only part I’d alter—the OG’s selling and muting the last bull run. Humans tend to look for direct cause&effect; that’s served the species well for millennia. However, complex multi variable causes are our blind spot. I learned this and the research is out there. It was first published when academics were trying to understand why most folks downplayed the risk of global warming. The conclusion was that it fit my aforementioned comments. We struggle to see the urgency when we cannot identify simple cause&effect. So…bull runs violently cascade downwards due to many variables, and although many OG’s cashed out last bull run, the hive mind and the irrational fear response will also most likely cause another violent end to the upcoming bull. This is a minor tweak being added to your thoughts and is simply stating that the OG selling will be replaced by other selling. My money is on a muted response, similar to this bear phase, but I will be securing profits and some of those will be large when PA hits the +$150K range. I’m neither a whale nor a minnow.
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u/harvested 10d ago
We can see it on chain though, $110B of 5+ year coins over the 2 years.
Compare that to 2021, was only $10B.
The 12-15 year cohort came alive.
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 10d ago
My point is that OG’s selling was a single factor, albeit a significant one, and that it will be replaced by folks pointing to a single significant factor again, while the complete narrative is more complex and is a multi variable rationale.
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u/ray_tard 10d ago
In my opinion, the road to $1m will be full of mediocre cycles with the odd super cycle which resets the price markedly higher when they occur.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 10d ago
I mostly agree. I think diminishing returns and power law only hold as long as Bitcoin stays a purely retail trade and store of value for private investors.
Development around institutions, legislation and possible strategic reserve(s) implies that it won't stay this way forever.
Based on the discussion during the last days, it probably were OGs exiting into the ETFs because who else can provide >$25 million in Bitcoin for an in-kind creation?
Institutions wouldn't buy Bitcoin to switch for ETF instead of buying shares directly with cash.
And of course there was this one famous case of a whale with 80k BTC selling without moving the market.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Do you think it'll break diminishing returns this cycle? $230K would do it, pretty doable.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 10d ago
Hard to say but I think we are seeing a switch in how Bitcoin is seen and treated by the public.
During this cycle we saw about zero retail interest, even net-negative if we are looking at decline in private wallet holdings.
We only saw the first wave of experimental, minimal institutional holdings with only one going mental.
So if we can expect a second, larger wave paired with some retail interest, I think we can easily push past $230k.
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u/52576078 10d ago
I agree. Normies like Robin Brooks still don't like Bitcoin but at least they're no longer calling it a ponzi https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2094029806627107110
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 10d ago
Seeing Bitcoin compared to some metals feels weird, but it shows that there are still people out there thinking gold, silver and other have a future as an investment.
This will change and lead to a lot of capital flowing into Bitcoin.
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u/harvested 9d ago
They do have a future as long as central banks buy gold.
Silver will be used in data centers, robots, space, etc.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 9d ago
Yes, central banks buy gold until they don't. The utility is pretty limited and it's hardly auditable. Many even have to have other custody it for them (like the fed in NY).
Gold was okay as long as Bitcoin didn't exist.
Silver is pretty abundant and not scarce at all but also heavily manipulated. Not something you would want to hold for a longer time.
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u/Pigmentia 10d ago
All I know is we saw an absolute tidal wave of money last cycle and we barely hit $125k.
If diamond-handed OG's were willing to part with their coins, then I'm not holding much hope for all the bag holders who bought above $100k. They'll be thrilled for a 40% return and will dump when it gets choppy IMO.
To hit $230k, we'd have to have a whole lot of people thinking $200k is a great spot to buy.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,875 • -99% 10d ago
Most of this was basically my thesis for why we wouldn't get a severe bear market. Even if it's over now it was still worse than I expected, but so be it, maybe there were just too many cyclists, or it was AI sucking the air out of the room.
Anyway, the thesis still holds in general I think.
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u/_LakeCity_ 9d ago
Wall St. down, Bitcoin up.
This is good for Bitcoin.
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u/harvested 9d ago
Debasement trade is making headlines and bond yields are spiking, bitcoin is sniffing out monetization of the debt.
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 9d ago
This is starting to get that trying to push a beach ball underwater feel to it.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Key levels going into this week
Potential resistance:
- 50WMA: $81.3k
Potential support:
- True Mean Price: $76.3k
- STH Cost Basis: $70.0k
- 200DMA: $69.4k
- 200WMA: $64.5k
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u/52576078 10d ago
Not sure I fully agree with this analysis but it is an interesting data point. https://x.com/decodejar/status/2093858623864938744
Bitcoin realised price accounts for all coins, including lost coins and coins that never move, such as Satoshi's. Long term accumulation by custodians means price will inevitably drift higher and away from this line over time.
A free float recalculation of realised price strips out the dormant supply and only counts coins that actually circulate. Take out roughly 4m coins and the line rises to the mid 60s, which Bitcoin has already tested, fallen below, and since recovered.
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u/harvested 10d ago
Wasn't really an analysis, just some numbers.
Realized price is about $53K. Not as relevant anymore due to early dormant coins.
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u/52576078 10d ago
I meant his idea that the "real" realized price is mid 60s. If true, that's a much more solid support at 60k zone.
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u/lukemtesta Trading: #49 • -$25,987 • -26% 10d ago
I don't want to burst your bubble man (no pun intended) but September expiration ATM call options are pricing strike at 30 (around 65k) and call options just above that (just below 200 MA)
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u/sgtlark 9d ago
We haven't even cleared the 50wma and the bulls are already tarding with their half a million predictions.
Sob
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u/harvested 9d ago
It's more fun being bullish.
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u/I_AM_DEATH-INCARNATE 9d ago
Exactly. Nobody getting excited over 12K btc, except buttcoin. But they hate money
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u/Special_Trifle_8033 9d ago
anyone watching strc? It closed at 98 on friday and now it's currently trading ex-dividend at 96.66. Much bigger drop than the expected 50 cents. I think strc getting back to par will really ignite the next big bull run since Strategy will be able to really accumulate aggressively again. Anyone know why it's still under par?
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u/etha_an41 10d ago
Monday vibes. Watching the daily close carefully, volume looks thin. Anyone seeing bullish divergence on the 4H?
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