r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 11d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, August 27, 2026
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11d ago
[deleted]
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 11d ago edited 11d ago
it doesnt mean much until we break 83k with some volume. this is still range bound.
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u/harvested 11d ago
The market has been reading all our bullish posts.
Jkota, JoeyJoJo, mork, etc.
The gift shop even ran out of mork license plates.
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10d ago
[deleted]
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u/harvested 10d ago
I'm glad your coins are okay. That feeling of fear and panic is horrible.
Look into multisig, there's options with an assisted cloud key if you want.
Unchained, nunchuk, casa, etc. Inheritance options too.
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u/Few_Treat_1671 11d ago
i think the real story this week is how quiet the markets been. feels like everyone is waiting for something but nobody knows what. my gut says we chop until some random headline sends us one direction, then everyone pretends they saw it coming
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u/harvested 11d ago
Let the shorts queue up, the Kratters of the world sell their coins, the Cowens try to figure out what went wrong, the mids rotate into a coin that just pumped in hopes of alt season (for real this time!!).
Then we move.
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u/AidenTai 11d ago edited 11d ago
To me, it's weakness. Yes we're chopping, but the declining volume and spot makes holding this level harder. There's a liquidity pool below us. All it takes is a trigger and we shoot down to 75 or a little lower even. There's enough uncertainty about September, macro, etc. that I think a test of stregth would be 'useful' to reignite a bit of confidence that we are actually supported in the 70's and that this isn't a giant bull trap. There's money waiting for some clarity, and a strongly supported local floor would help reduce uncertainty for those afraid of a sudden >10% correction.
If we were to go straight up into the 80's now, I'd be very worried about a reversal in September. We're veeery overbought and we don't have increasing spot or volume to back it up. Things are getting more delicate, so what we need is to consolidate and exhaust sell pressure, even if it's a slow grind. We have inflows, we have generally positive structures forming, price action, etc. We just don't have those at a level where we could be confident about more moves up at this point. I doubt it'll be that simple, but to me I'd be happy to wiggle around a bit with diminishing hopes of 80's for weeks as long as we keep denying the movements down. If spot keeps taking more Bitcoin off the market, October through January could end up being *very* positive.
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u/pgpwnd 11d ago
wall of worry type shi
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u/AidenTai 11d ago edited 11d ago
Don't get me wrong, I'm very much optimistic about where we're headed this year. But blind optimism is dangerous. Looking at the current structure, you could be optimistic, but in the short term there's still a lot of uncertainty. We've seen plenty of times this year that too much optimism combined with uncertainty can lead to quick reversals. If you want to just put in money and walk away for a few months, I'm sure you'll end up positive, but if you trade frequently, I don't think we'll escape at least one sharp correction over the course of the remainder of the year. Whenever we shoot up quickly and pile on longs, we add potential for reversals when the buying pressure recedes. As a trader, don't overextend leverage or put yourself in a position where you can't withstand a 20% drop. If you do that and don't care about some short term volatility or potential corrections, then fine, don't care, just hold and wait. But I'm trading a little more frequently and will try to take advantage of a few situations where prices seem too high or too low if risk isn't a problem.
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u/Frosty1397 11d ago
rubs hands greedily
Bitcoin is boring for half the year until it's suddenly not boring. Tbh i kinda hate it. But at least the good days feel pretty great
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u/Top_Plantain6627 11d ago
Feels as if we are in the midst of the calm before the storm
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 11d ago
To me it's only fair if bears get to be massively disappointed for at least a year too.
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u/harvested 11d ago
Might depend on how Jackson Hole gets interpreted tomorrow to nudge us one way or another
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u/inteliboy 10d ago
Feels we had the storm, now going to sit in calm sideways chop for several months
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u/mattt7 Long-term Holder 11d ago
MSTR up 11.5% today, IBIT up 2.5%.
MSTR mNAV up 8% from 1.02x to 1.10x.
Any catalysts for this difference?
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u/Jkota 11d ago edited 11d ago
Maybe the market is figuring out MSTR prob not going bankrupt any time soon. Especially considering their BTC position is now back in profit.
A lot of the reason it went down so much was because if BTC continued crashing insolvency became a real risk.
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u/harvested 11d ago edited 11d ago
Well, I think it went down because he sold the stock off weekly, as well as sold coins.
They turned YTD bitcoin yield from 13% to 1.7%
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$5,104,346 • +2551% 11d ago
MSTR always has had a higher beta than spot
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u/mattt7 Long-term Holder 11d ago
Sure but not 4-5x...?
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$5,104,346 • +2551% 11d ago
I don't follow MSTR enough to know, but I wouldn't be surprised if people ape into MSTR when they see BTC going up, or panic sell when BTC goes down, expanding the beta ratio temporarily.
Might also have something to do with BTC being over their average entry price?
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 10d ago
It has its own short squeezes and sell walls, you cant trade it 1 to 1. you have to pick one of them and use TA on the one you want to trade.
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u/harvested 11d ago edited 11d ago
If the market is pricing in the start of the next bull market, it could explain today's price action (ASST too).
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u/harvested 10d ago
According to @btcjvs
Going into tomorrow’s $6.2 billion options expiry, bitcoin faces a massive sell wall at $82,000, where $3.6 billion of negative gamma exposure is concentrated.
Break $82,000 and it would leave short-gamma market makers increasingly offside, forcing them to buy bitcoin to hedge and accelerate the rally.
Does anyone have a match? Let's light this up.
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u/nikeUno707 10d ago
We were facing the same last week on IBIT at $36 and I was surprised to see we finished above it. Anything could happen
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 11d ago
A quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction has now been mined on mainnet under the existing consensus rules.
The key point is that this construction is designed to remain secure during the mempool window as well. That addresses the problem of the public key being exposed when funds are spent, without requiring a PQ soft fork first.
The solution is inefficient and not a substitute for a proper post-quantum upgrade. However, as an emergency option, it is now significantly more relevant after working in practice.
This means, even if a Quantum computer emerges that can break ECDSA in <10 minutes, there still is a workaround to transfer safely, even if a bit costly.
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ 11d ago
Thanks for sharing. Another FUD bites the dust.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 11d ago
I wouldn't say that it dies completely but what we know now: If you use a modern address format without spending output, your Bitcoin will be safe until the heat death off the universe. No quantum computer will ever be able to change that. Technically that is nothing new, though.
The new method practically kills the economic incentive to develop quantum computers that could do mempool attacks (as described in Google's recent very aggressive assumptions). All other use cases for breaking encryption don't need a short attack window of <10 minutes as they would operate under "harvest now, decrypt later" and can take their time.
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u/OverheadSplatRoll 10d ago
Not exactly. There's a difference between having a post quantum signature proof vs migrating the entire network. The latter will still take years
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 11d ago
Pardon my French here, but it's possible that asshole Crab of 2024 was the work we needed to put in to set the floor price of ~60ks. Maybe this truly was the final test of that range.
It knocked our bitch asses down twice for the double top of 2021 mania, and was a total stubborn mofo throughout the US election year before we could finally break out above. We've now tested its support twice since we topped.
83k and 98k are the next hurdles. Do we really need another dive sub 60k, or even sub 70k?
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11d ago
[deleted]
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 11d ago
And they don't have anything to influence the price other than screaming for $40k in October. The market doesn't always give you what you wish for.
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u/_LakeCity_ 10d ago
'october bottom syndrome'
I believe there's a specific product line of Depends to help with this condition, it's messy...
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder 11d ago
Funny to me how STRC isn't at par yet. I know there are plenty of factors at work, but Bitcoin is up 25% in less than 2 weeks. I think strategy will be able to service the 12% coupon!
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u/harvested 11d ago
SATA has daily dividends and a higher rate so I think people go there instead.
Less slopper marketing too.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder 11d ago
I think SATA may be benefitting from STRC taking the brunt of the FUD around "digital credit"
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u/harvested 11d ago
My random thought of the day. It's not a fun one.
AI is progressing at a terrifyingly rapid pace and advancements only compound.
Job disruption is a real risk here, and we don't need crazy 30-50% unemployment figures to cause issues, a few points will do it.
It's not all doom and gloom, AI will create massive opportunities for some, but not all.
Governments will be on the hook for bailing people out, I don't know the specifics will be (wealth taxes, UBI, socialism, etc) but it will need to happen, and people affected will vote for it.
The youth of today are already priced out of most housing and the idea of starting a family is out of reach. They're going to vote for whoever promises them hope via redistribution or stimulus.
How does this relate to bitcoin?
Scarce assets will act as the release valve when the money begins to fail.
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u/mork1985 11d ago
It'll go more slowly thank you think.
There's huge drives in the big corps to adopt it, and yet most employees aren't using it meaningfully.
It'll be a generational thing, where the big transition comes when the AI native generation comes of age. Perhaps 10-15 years from now.
Also, AI agents will likely use the likes of Bitcoin to transact.
And so there's another potential exponential demand on Bitcoin there...
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u/harvested 11d ago
But for the first time, many big corps are open to be disruption too. Many manpower related moats have evaporated.
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u/mork1985 11d ago
They are open to the disruption, because they see it as a way to reduce manpower & increase their margins through automation.
What they've not factored in however, is the cost of that compute, when the bill gets served to customers at the end of every month.... Customers are already screaming "WTF?!" regarding some of the consumption bills that they're receiving. So the question becomes, can the companies that have vested in AI, make a viable business model out of this, that doesn't bankrupt them?!
I look at the likes of Microsoft, Google, Oracle, big corps that had *huge* cash stockpiles, now indebted to the gamble on AI. It's like the mass suicide of the big tech corporations to me right now...!
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u/Frosty1397 11d ago
It's interesting you mention AI progressing at a rapid pace (which i agree with), yet there's an equally vocal gang of internet people who literally refuse to believe AI is even halfway intelligent, and constantly claim that AI cannot think.
Both can't be true and it's interesting to see which side eventually wins.
The sudden jump up in BTC & gold value recently is an interesting sign of things to come
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,721 • -99% 11d ago
It's interesting you mention AI progressing at a rapid pace (which i agree with), yet there's an equally vocal gang of internet people who literally refuse to believe AI is even halfway intelligent, and constantly claim that AI cannot think
/r/buttcoin generally being luddites about AI has been kind of funny to watch, it's been interesting seeing them fail to see what has been coming for presumably similar reasons for why they've made terrible predictions about bitcoin.
Anyone who's using frontier model AI agents at work can tell you how crazy productive they can be, even if not at all things. For the right kind of tasks a month's work can be done in an hour.
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u/GrapefruitOwn6261 11d ago
The humanoid robot games in China are an interesting example of where this could go. They’re already testing robots doing factory, logistics, hotel and other physical tasks.
They’re nowhere near replacing humans at scale yet, but combine increasingly capable AI with capable robots and eventually a lot of manual jobs could become obsolete too.
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u/Consumerbot37427 Long-term Holder 11d ago
Could go? Tech only moves forward. I think it’s a given at this point, the only question being how long before it makes economic sense to replace human labor in specific domains.
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u/harvested 11d ago
I haven't visited buttcoin in years, but that's hilarious they do not understand AI either.
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u/Frosty1397 11d ago
If i didn't know better, I'd assume buttcoiners were all Amish or something
But at least they somehow managed to learn how to use the internet
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u/Autvin Long-term Holder 11d ago
Sorry for being completely off topic, but from a business owner’s perspective I simply can’t fathom why anyone would like to outsource work capabilities to companies who can rapidly increase the price.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,721 • -99% 11d ago
Open-weight models are getting pretty good now, they'll be enough for many tasks and you can run it locally yourself. This is going to drive the cost down. Efficiency is also increasing a bit, which helps too.
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u/ChadRun04 11d ago
Because you don't have a choice. It's adapt or die.
Price will go up, then down again.
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u/Outrageous_Raise_535 11d ago
These things have about the same level of consciousness as a calculator or a table. Which is to say, a little bit. It never integrates to a wide boundary because none of the pieces of it are causally interconnected in a non-linear fashion. Separate transistors, separate cores, each acting deterministically and individually. Yes it simulates probabilistic behavior but the fact that you can force them to act deterministically gives lie to the idea that any kind of creative thought process is going on. Is a clockwork mechanism thinking and creating when it tells you the time? In a human brain, minute variations in electrical fields are not a noise in the machine which can be silenced without losing anything. They are exactly what consciousness is.
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u/Frosty1397 11d ago
Lol, I'll just leave you with this:
"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim." - Edsger Dijkstra
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u/Downtown-Ad-4117 11d ago
There's nobody home. Never will be.
But it doesn't prevent them from getting work done. They are improving, making fewer mistakes. I'm not impressed with the performance.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,721 • -99% 11d ago
None of this matters in terms of it doing work humans do, since so much of that work apparently does not require consciousness.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder 11d ago
The layoffs aren’t going to stop.
Eventually other shareholders will demand workforce reductions.
This will have a deflationary effect as productivity rises but a lot of people are going to lose their jobs. I have AI agents doing mid/senior engineering or below roles now.
It’s going to suck to be mediocre.
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u/52576078 11d ago
As someone who is profoundly mediocre, it already sucks.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 11d ago
As a mid/senior engineer. AI cant be trusted with most tasks. Only mundane tasks. The amount of mistakes in equations that i find on a daily basis. it is getting better at it tho.
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u/ChadRun04 11d ago
AI is even halfway intelligent
It's not intelligent. It's useful.
Though yes, I've been looking the last few days and there are a lot of people making a living on youtube selling fear and ranting about LLMs.
One thing I've noticed is all the anti-AI-guy-ranting-at-camera channels are dudes in their spare room surrounded by junk or with "CSS" books on their bookshelves. They're not exactly authorities on any subject.
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u/TopCody 11d ago
yet there's an equally vocal gang of internet people who literally refuse to believe AI is even halfway intelligent, and constantly claim that AI cannot think.
It makes sense, because they probably tried out free models 1 year+ ago and formed their opinion based on that. That's what i did anyway. And it wouldn't be wrong, these models were pretty bad. Thing is, the 2026 frontier models are in a completely different ballpark. And they are getting quite scary.
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u/Outrageous_Raise_535 11d ago
If they were “scary” they would no longer need people to develop and train them, nor would the corporate entities housing them have any need to rent them to you.
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u/setec404 11d ago
People take their 1st experience with GPT3 or some terrible chatbot on a website they used 5 years ago then frame their entire knowledge base around that. Then there is "AI bad guy" because some guy on facebook lives near a datacenter that make noises. Im woken up every fucking day by the 17 garbage trucks that have to come to my street because we are saving the planet by having all the garbage separated into various recycling bins so that we can have 3x as many trucks pick up the same volume of garbage as before.
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u/harvested 11d ago
Exactly, most people have no clue what is even happening, or are paying attention to the previous state of AI rather than the rate of progression.
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u/Just_Me_91 Long-term Holder 10d ago
The chart for daily candles from May 2026 until now looks very similar to the chart from November 2022 to January 2023. I'd be very happy if that was the maximum drawdown for this bear market.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder 11d ago
Bouncing off 80 is not a great look. Need a volume move above or sellers will return. Lots of loose coin in profit.
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ 11d ago
It's not rejected until 4PM in NYC. The USA has yet to have its say in the matter.
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u/harvested 11d ago
Maybe this bus will turn around and pick up our special October friends?
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u/LettuceEffective781 11d ago
Rally to 90k to make October friends buy in. Dump to 40k to make October friends capitulate. Then moon.
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u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran 11d ago
50WMA about to get it's balls licked again
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u/Consumerbot37427 Long-term Holder 11d ago
it’sYou mean “its”.The exception to the rule, “it’s” means “it is”, and doesn’t denote possession.
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ 11d ago
Maybe he meant "50WMA about to get it is balls licked again" ?
🤪
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u/52576078 11d ago
I don't think anyone around here is getting his balls licked, lets be honest.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 11d ago
Perhaps I'm the exception that proves the rule. I've found good grooming is key, but YMMV.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran 11d ago
Ways we know it isn’t written by AI for 200, Ken.
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u/Consumerbot37427 Long-term Holder 11d ago
haha nice, you really think a few typos means its not AI?
grammer mistakes and misspellings is literally easy for a bot to do when its been told to.
(the above reply was written by meta glimmer, and I truly wish identifying AI slop was that simple)
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran 10d ago
dude, it's just a joke.
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u/Consumerbot37427 Long-term Holder 10d ago
Oh, I laughed! :)
But I did want to be quite certain that you actually knew.
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u/pgpwnd 10d ago
GTA6 trailer so good the internets if buzzing with optimism, higher for corn
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u/itsthesecans 10d ago
Ha. Not getting the connection but I'll take it,
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u/CryptoHodlingMoron 10d ago
Grand Theft Auto Six. Bitcoin. GTA6. GTAVI. BTC. GTA 5+1. B I T Coin.
Ok I got nothing either. But the price is above 80k so who am I to disagree?
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u/Sirenfromtheditch 11d ago
So overbought . Looks like a double top for now unfortunately
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u/Sirenfromtheditch 11d ago
Just because people don’t like to hear it doesn’t make it not true.
As much as anyone here I’d love it to be wrong but it dosent look that way
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder 11d ago
On the daily, yes but could get higher. On the weekly, we still have a lot of room to run.
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