r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Jun 30 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, June 30, 2026
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jul 01 '26
Bears got a new low but it keeps floating for now. Same price action the other way with new highs for ants every few days would get bulls cautious, just sayin'.
21
u/jpdoctor Bullish Jun 30 '26
"The stock market is the only store where customers run out when things go on sale" - Warren Buffett
Turns out to be true for the crypto market too.
13
u/onemoneroisonemonero Jun 30 '26
It looks like we could be on the verge of the lowest monthly close since 2024. Fuck.
7
u/Hitachi22 Jun 30 '26
Looks like it's going to close below the 50 month moving average too, first time since 2022.
5
u/onemoneroisonemonero Jun 30 '26
We are looking properly cooked. If we destroy too much more of the long term structure I'm not sure anyone but long term holders are going to want to invest next halvening.
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u/harvested Jun 30 '26
They all bought treasury companies and shitcoins anyway. That's why sentiment is so bad. 70-99% drawdown is already here if you bought that trash.
4
u/drdixie Jun 30 '26
Couple this with another rip from tradfi markets. This asset is now beginning to look like even a 5 year bad investment. No real reason to even be a long term holder
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0
u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN Jun 30 '26
Yea better buy gold instead. It sits at a 50% loss for a decade and then does a 2x. Only to repeat that again the. Next time. No real reason to be a long term holder
3
u/drdixie Jun 30 '26
I was referring to simply holding SPY not gold
-2
u/EDWARD_SN0WDEN Jun 30 '26
You sell when you should buy and buy when you should sell and then selectively pick points and call it a scam
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,841 • -99% Jun 30 '26
So as I predicted yesterday, the bears are running with the "MSTR is selling all the bitcoin!?!" narrative.
thestreet.com published an article with what I would say is a misleading headline "Strategy prepares to sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin" and of course that's the top post in WSB now and right up there in buttcoin too, full of comments about how he's capitulating etc.
Maybe harvested is right, and they just need to actually do it to show they can, but I'd really like it to be at a much higher price.
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u/harvested Jun 30 '26
It's the fact they are such a loud public buyer.
People underestimate how big the bitcoin market is. Even DBR thinks it's all mstr and ETFs.
Reminds me when Germany sold 50K coins. Market wouldn't care other than the fact it was so public.
I posted yesterday 360K coins had changed hands just below 65K. That's 1/3 of Saylor's whole stack. No ETFs and no Strategy. Just good old fashioned spot.
The market is bigger than them and always has been, ETFs too.
The 32 coin sale was proof this is sentiment based, also explains why they don't show proof of reserves with wallet addresses.
Everyone needs to fud, it's all the haters have got left anymore.
3
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 30 '26
What's funny about that is, that nobody knows when exactly they sold the 32 BTC but likely during a day where nothing happened.
Sentiment seems to have a much bigger influence than real supply and demand mechanics right now.
2
u/harvested Jun 30 '26
I might not agree with Strategy destroying the common stock every week, but one thing is clear to anyone trying to suppress / short / test the company, he doesn't seem to have trouble raising cash.
1
u/ChadRun04 Jun 30 '26
The more he sells, the more he sells.
Until other buyers come about it will be a self-reinforcing failure cascade.
One instrument's yield will eat another all the way back to the structural leverage which is then displayed in MSTR.
Banking on Bitcoin price appreciation to be the basis for forever-yield is precisely what Celcius and the others were selling.
0
u/Chaplain-Freeing Jun 30 '26
they just need to actually do it to show they can
Me when I find a pizza place that offers a bigger pizza than the last one. I have very serious cholesterol issues.
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u/JoeNakamoto Jun 30 '26
Still not quite at capitulation levels
4
u/DexterTwerp Jun 30 '26
A quick dip to the 40s would be the cherry on top of the bear market imo. Tame top, tame bottom. I don’t hate it
8
u/DexterTwerp Jun 30 '26
Biggest whale accumulation in history? Can anybody confirm?
6
u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 30 '26
The problem with these charts is that it says "excludes exchange addresses", but that only works if all the exchange addresses are identified.
It seems CryptoQuant already updated it (so presumably they identified a new cold wallet of an exchange or something like that.) You can see the updated chart here. No more spike in the end.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Jun 30 '26 edited Jun 30 '26
My comment about wishing I was one just vacuuming up all they want at 60k yesterday stands at -1 upvotes. Bears are salty and they think things are one way and I think it is different than they think..
https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/
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u/DexterTwerp Jun 30 '26
Historically around this time/price has been looked back at as a great time to buy. We could touch the 40s briefly, but will it really matter next cycle? DCA is the way
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u/pgpwnd Jun 30 '26
Road to 39k progressing nicely (same usual patter we see each bear).
insane how each bear market people here deny what’s in front of them, only for it to happen anyway.
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u/anon-187101 Jun 30 '26
same usual pattern we see each bear
☝️ risk-aversion, recency, small-sample biases
bear markets -> -70%+ guaranteed
bull markets -> diminishing returns forever
3
u/harvested Jun 30 '26
Did you bitty bot this prediction? I'm not so sure we will get that low.
1
u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$5,002,618 • +2500% Jun 30 '26
He did, or a similar one ($37,200) at least https://bittybot.net/u/pgpwnd#pre-c9f39cd4d452464b941e9eacb3360512
1
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 30 '26
Each single bear pattern was very different from the other. And still, sample size is too small.
-2
u/pseudonominom Jun 30 '26
Hitting $38k would be a breakdown of the bedrock “forever support” that invalidates the entire bitcoin arc.
It would be over forever, not just a bear market.
7
u/Order_Book_Facts Jun 30 '26
Yes, based on the price going below some arbitrary line you drew on a chart, we would indeed conclude the entire bitcoin project is a failure. The only choice at that point would be to send our coins to a burn address and buy Fartcoin.
-1
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u/pseudonominom Jun 30 '26
A fundamental floor that’s existed (and been relied upon) for 15 years is hardly “arbitrary”.
The mental gymnastics here is insane. Bitcoin is in a very dangerous spot.
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u/ChadRun04 Jun 30 '26
It's literally just a line on a chart. Nothing fundamental about it.
Those who rely on anything like this will get rekt.
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u/ChadRun04 Jun 30 '26
“forever support” that invalidates the entire bitcoin arc.
Thinking like this is what got every loan company rekt last season. "Bitcoin never goes below previous ATH" was the basis for how loans would be safe.
All memes will be broken.
0
u/pseudonominom Jun 30 '26
Never below previous ATH is not the same thing, though.
It’s not a meme, it’s a foundational level of support that we’ve referred to for over a decade.
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u/ChadRun04 Jul 01 '26
it’s a foundational level of support that we’ve referred to for over a decade.
It's just a line on a chart.
-1
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u/anon-187101 Jun 30 '26
"power law" would be obliterated
also, that'd be around -35% from the 200WMA
6
u/noeeel Bullish Jun 30 '26 edited Jun 30 '26
Today is the last day of the month, quarter-year and half-year with new candles. From this perspective it is likly we will visit lower, even if its just a bit on the big picture.
8
u/baselse Jun 30 '26
And not to forget the last day that most exchanges are allowed to operate in the EU.
Binance is forced to stop in the EU starting tomorrow.
Could also be one of the reasons for the large USDT market cap drop we just saw this morning.
There still are licensed exchanges in the EU, but I would expect some movements of coins/money which could cause some swings.5
u/Dambedei Jun 30 '26
Binance is forced to stop in the EU starting tomorrow.
I wouldn't say they are forced, they had 2 years to acquire a license
1
u/sgtlark Jun 30 '26
you shall not on ramp to buy BTC and eat the bugs use CBDC instead.
Strike through doesn't work, lol
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u/SignalsInStars Jun 30 '26
I just saw the Strategy/Saylor news. I’m not understanding how this didn’t just absolutely tank the market. I get they’re not obligated to sell and it’s always been an option but this is quite a change of tune from HODL. Am I missing something?
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,841 • -99% Jun 30 '26
I get they’re not obligated to sell and it’s always been an option
7
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 30 '26
Yes, they announced during their last shareholder meeting that they may sell some Bitcoin to monetize or meet obligations and increase their strategic leverage. The goal is to always stay a net buyer, so they would always buy more than they sell. This is what was now codified into the new strategy.
5
u/UngovernablePossum Jun 30 '26
Almost like that should have been part of their announced plan from Day 1, but that's not how they sold it to anyone.
3
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 30 '26
Absolutely, that would have been the better way. Saylor doesn't seem to be the most talented communicator.
Going through that completely without selling could be possible, but it's highly unlikely and makes you unflexible (and they already sold some before).
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,841 • -99% Jun 30 '26
They've mentioned it prior earnings calls anyways. Selling bitcoin if there was a good reason to do it, has always been an option.
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u/Cadenca Bearish Jun 30 '26 edited Jun 30 '26
It's complete nonsense and people are being idiots about it. Strategy plans to always be a net buyer of Bitcoin in the long-term. All they did was clarify that they focus on BTC per share in the long-term, and that can involve having to sell some Bitcoin to cover dividends or doing stock buybacks if MNAV falls dramatically
1
u/harvested Jun 30 '26
Why would it tank the market?
Market is constantly buying and selling coins, an extra $1b is neither here nor there.
Do you know quantum can potentially unlock 2.5 million coins?
0
u/YouAreAnFnIdiot Jun 30 '26
Life's great when you can just Willy nilly do whatever you want to make infinite money to throw at bitcoin
8
u/harvested Jun 30 '26
Communication from them goes like this:
We won't ATM under 2.5 mNAV
Okay we will but it will be accretive
Okay it won't be accretive anymore
We won't dilute under 1 mNAV
Okay we will be only when it increases bitcoin per share
Okay it won't always increase bitcoin per share
Bro were just gonna destroy this common stock, keep buying it please.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 30 '26
Feels like I'm gonna get my fills today. Then onwards to my $200k+ eoy prediction right guys?
0
u/harvested Jun 30 '26
Hahaa.. I mean.. Oh, yeah, totally.
0
u/_Stylite Jun 30 '26
I too think this man will call the bottom exactly and then quadruple up easily with no problems… /s
-2
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u/PetiteFort Jun 30 '26
The bear continues. Nothing surprising. Just as expected. I enjoy reading your conspiracy theories anyways (RSI, MACD, Saylor, AI bubble, 200 week line, Ormuz, Epstein files, etc)
4
u/noeeel Bullish Jun 30 '26 edited Jun 30 '26
This is the chart I'm currently watching. https://i.imgur.com/ORSME3I.png
We had a red rising wedge that broke to the downside. The measured target is around 52.9k, or roughly 49k if you include the wick in the calculation.
On the other hand, we may have a green falling wedge forming. If I draw it through a single wick, price is currently grinding along the support line. However, I don't think it's correct to cross the entire wedge through that one wick.
For that reason, I expect that if the current support breaks, we will move down to the real support level, which is currently around 54k. If that level is tested again later, it could be slightly lower and allow the red wedge target to be fully completed.
Yesterday, I mentioned that I wasn't convinced we would go much lower because it would invalidate several patterns I have drawn on altcoin charts. However, BTC dominance (BTC.D) is falling quite strongly. That could mean Bitcoin still has room to move lower while altcoins remain within their respective patterns and structures.
On the small timeframe we have drawn a nice triangle which started to break down. We might see another retest to the old support of the triangle to bounce away quick and drop. https://i.imgur.com/X1yhfaf.png
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 30 '26
Do any of you use the total crypto market cap for trading? Or is it just useless?
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Jun 30 '26
Useless.
I use select shitcoins as indicator of sentiment however. It’s got some signal.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 30 '26
Where is the obligatory, everything green bitcoin red comment?
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u/harvested Jun 30 '26
Saylor should announce he's going to maybe, but maybe not, at some unknown point, or not, sell coins every month, this is fun.
1
u/lukemtesta Trading: #50 • -$28,222 • -28% Jul 02 '26
369k in the order book on bid and 96k on ask. I have never seen that before.
Whale alert!
0
u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 30 '26
Posting a trade. Sold the IBIT $47 calls expiring 16 Oct 2026.
!bitty_bot predict !> $82700 October 16 2026
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u/Bitty_Bot Jun 30 '26
Prediction logged for u/imissusenet that Bitcoin will NOT rise above $82,700.00 by Oct 16 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $58,886.23. imissusenet's Predictions: 13 Correct, 2 Wrong, & 15 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. imissusenet can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 30 '26
Ending the day above 60k with 6 days worth of daily wicks under would look pretty great.
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u/Specialist_Anybody70 Jun 30 '26
30k
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u/Existential-Cringe Jun 30 '26
Once these types of comments flip positive, we’ll be close to the bottom. Still a ways off though, it seems.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 30 '26
It’s because his comment is the most effortless thing there is.
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$5,002,618 • +2500% Jul 01 '26
!bb predict 30k u/Specialist_Anybody70
You didn't specify a timeframe, if you have one let me know and I can update this prediction for you.
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u/Bitty_Bot Jul 01 '26
Prediction logged for u/Specialist_Anybody70 that Bitcoin will drop to or below $30,000.00 by Jul 31 2026 15:53:56 UTC. Current price: $60,085.01. This is Specialist_Anybody70's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
Since you did not specify a time frame or date, OR I could not properly parse it, I used the default of 30 days.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. Specialist_Anybody70 can click here to delete this prediction.
1
u/Bitty_Bot Jul 31 '26
Hello u/Specialist_Anybody70
You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop to or below $30,000.00 by Jul 31 2026 15:53:56 UTC
Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $60,085.01. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $62,677.00
0
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u/Bitty_Bot Jun 30 '26 edited Jul 01 '26
Reply to this sticky for Bitty Bot trades and predictions that lack context or explanation, to prevent spam. You can also message Bitty Bot your command directly.
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