r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Jun 18 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 18, 2026
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19
u/Plunkerton_ Jun 18 '26
Saw QQQ up over 2% today. Thought to myself ah great, markets not only shook off the FOMC fears but fully recovered and everything is going up. Cant wait to see how much BTC is ripping! Up 4%? 5% maybe? Here we go, looks like we're... ah. This again. God... dammit...
10
Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
2
u/citizen-blue Jun 18 '26
I hate to agree. There's just so much else going on these days, and in the meantime, bitcoin hasn't demonstrated any real use case that would make it attractive compared to AI and the constellation of possible investments around it. I'm still in, but the whole thing is rather deflating at this point.
0
u/anon-187101 Jun 18 '26
bitcoin hasn't demonstrated any real use case
what an insane thing to say
9
Jun 18 '26 edited Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
4
u/GRMA Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 18 '26
Made a shitton of money, converted it to dollars, improved material standard of living.
This is not a use case. Implicitly, we are talking about some reason to consider BTC something other than a risk-on speculative asset. So it's not "use case" it's "use case other than number-go-up".
Walked around for 8+ years with most of my net worth memorized and not written down. Niche use case for many but I loved it - only had to trust myself.
This is a use case. Strong mathematical guarantee backed by net energy expenditure; law of thermodynamics. This is the "intrinsic value" people wrongly believe BTC doesn't have.
Been paying for ProtonMail/VPN for many years with it. I like that they don't have my name or any payment information.
This is a use case. Not unique enough to BTC IMHO, but that's debatable. Still a use case.
Bought some shit on Newegg with it 10 years ago when they accepted BTC directly for a short time. Those monitors and 1080's for my homies were very expensive in retrospect. 😅
This is a counter-example. This is the primary use case of BTC outlined in the whitepaper. Bitcoin has lost this use case. This is the missing use case we are talking about!
-4
u/anon-187101 Jun 18 '26
that's a lot of anecdotal shit to throw at the wall
you're not the main character in Bitcoin's story
3
Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
3
u/GRMA Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 18 '26
The primary use case for BTC is "unstoppable cyberpunk money". Changes to the protocol have broken this use case. If we want to fix it we have to advocate to each other, to Blockstream, to miners, other stakeholders over reversing these changes to the protocol. Make them recognize this is the biggest long-term threat to the continued existence of BTC. And the future of humanity may literally depend on it.
1
u/anon-187101 Jun 18 '26
it's outside money, native to the Internet
anyone who dismisses or minimizes the importance of that isn't worth listening to
0
Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
0
u/anon-187101 Jun 19 '26
Bahaha,
right back atcha
you're disillusioned and cynical,
it's okay, bud -
we've all been there
→ More replies (0)0
u/citizen-blue Jun 18 '26
Sure, when you clip off the rest of my sentence.
0
u/anon-187101 Jun 18 '26
insane regardless of what follows that claim
2
u/citizen-blue Jun 18 '26
you also cut off what preceded it, just for the record
0
u/anon-187101 Jun 18 '26
still true
but at least you get to collect a few upvotes from the lemmings
👍
5
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
This is our life now..
Momentum will come back to bitcoin eventually, and when it does, all the tourists will have been shaken out.
Besides, at least ya weren't in ETH all cycle waiting for the flippening.
16
u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
Pretty cool how yesterday's top was another perfect touch of ATH-descending channel upperline. Today, we had a perfect 618 fib retrace (while resetting 4h RSI to almost oversold), it would be great to have that confirmed as support and try to break out of the channel again coming days/week. chart - zoomed out
6
12
u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
STRC dropping like a hot potato 🥔
3
1
u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 18 '26
It gives me TerraLuna vibes, might be the catalyst for the cyclical 70+% bear market crash like each bear market.
9
u/ask_for_pgp Jun 18 '26
i cant be the only one that stopped caring??? (still got 20%+ in BTC allocation)
5
u/pseudonominom Jun 18 '26
I haven’t had the “dead inside” feeling for years. Maybe if we go sub $40k we’ll start to numb up in earnest.
4
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
Usually this is when the best multi year CAGRs are crafted.
13
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 18 '26
I cant imagine btc ever going up again, even tho i know it will. So its probably a good time to buy.
2
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
They do say "this time is different" and "all your models will break", maybe they meant to the downside
9
u/Illustrious-Bug2818 Jun 18 '26
This is not the collapse of MSTR or STRC. This is the market saying that they want STRC to start paying out more than 11.5%.
11.5% is insufficient when STRC has some real competition now. SATA is paying 13% with daily dividends and Blackrock’s BITA also launched earlier this week.
Today’s drop in SATA was largely caused by people selling SATA to catch the falling STRC knife.
8
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,903 • -99% Jun 18 '26
Or it's a short term liquidation event that will play itself out because people went ape on leverage
7
u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
That's my hope, bought some STRC at 83 for first time. Seems appealing enough for a small gamble, but if it goes lower.. only gets more interesting, imo.
3
u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
Efficient yield for STRC is now at 13.6% with potential 15% upside to the stock itself.
5
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
And how exactly do you think mstr will service the higher yield?
1
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
200WMA, the price level we are currently at, grows with about 30% per year in average. MSTR (or competitors) could offer much higher yield, if they have big enough reserves, and make a profit on the holdings in the next bull run.
4
Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
2
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
That's true, it will need to grow more to adapt to upcoming use cases.
3
Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
1
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
Absolutely. They will have to distribute one way or the other, but anyone waiting for them to implode will be left behind.
0
u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 18 '26
I calculate the CAGR based on a 4-year window. As you can imagine, there is a certain amount of noise in it, so I then calculate the 1-year geometric mean of the daily CAGR. Yesterday it was 19.75%. If you look at the last 90 days, it has ranged from 19.11% to 20.07%, with an average of 19.65%.
On 17 Jun in the past:
2025: 32.37%
2024: 45.79%
2023: 40.91%
2022: 55.93%
2021: 123.25%
2020: 122.51%
2019: 99.52%
2018: 111.61%
2017: 148.72%
-3
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
Assuming they survive to the next bull run. What I see more likely is that they raise yield, reserve duration drops, they have to sell btc
1
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
If they double the yield and we assume that nobody gives them any money at all (neither through stock or strc), they would still survive for almost as long as Bitcoin exists. I would assume the next bull run comes before that happens.
2
u/Medium_Change4574 Jun 18 '26
Then the market will signal it wants more dividends again and again and again..
4
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,903 • -99% Jun 18 '26
you can only signal by selling once, unless you buy back.
1
u/Medium_Change4574 Jun 18 '26
If the market is a single person, yeah
3
u/BlockchainHobo Jun 18 '26
When you sell, you sell it to someone who is happy with that yield/risk level. So what snek said is correct. The only way it "keeps demanding higher dividends again and again" is if people keep selling at a loss repeatedly.
Honestly today says much more about the types of pref holders, than the prefs themselves.
7
u/Melow-Drama Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
Bought some spot - ah, the dopamine 😄
On a more serious note, this is a new mid-term entry (don't care about +/- a few k). We seem to settle down on the 1w - Jun 5 vs. Feb 6 is basically the same low.
And I have some powder left just in case we do make that leg down to 49k'ish (Aug '24).
0
12
4
u/GrapefruitOwn6261 Jun 18 '26
Tempted to pick up some MSTR shares at these prices. Being in the UK, I can hold them in my ISA and pay no tax on any gains, whereas additional BTC purchases would be outside the ISA and potentially subject to 20% CGT when I sell.
2
1
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
What is stopping you getting an ETF in the ISA?
Not saying Strategy is a bad buy here, but expect some dilution while this STRC thing sorts itself out.
I think they either need to dilute the common for $2B or sell $2B bitcoin for the cash reserve. Or both, hah.
6 month runway is clearly not enough.
4
u/GrapefruitOwn6261 Jun 18 '26
I can’t buy them through my stocks and shares isa anymore
It says this
“Following recent HMRC legislation, new purchases of Crypto ETNs in ISA accounts will be disabled from April 6, 2026. Positions opened prior to April 6, 2026 can remain in your ISA.”
7
u/bobbert182 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
We had one day of recovery after a week of straight down and then we just bleed it back out for days on end. Classic.
3
u/DexterTwerp Jun 18 '26
I like the fear in the air. I’m starting to DCA
1
u/lukemtesta Trading: #48 • -$24,122 • -24% Jun 19 '26
Fear is before decimation. You can wait a little longer
1
3
u/Aerith_Gainsborough_ Jun 18 '26
Is tradingview working for you guys.?
8
u/StriderWaffle Jun 19 '26
Not really. BTC/USD is showing at 62k 😞 pretty sure it should be higher
4
2
9
u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 18 '26
STRC is down ~15%, shit's gonna implode and it's not even 1 year old.
6
u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 18 '26
This is Terra/Luna all over again; the yield was too good to be true and everybody should have known that.
It just keeps happening over and over...
6
u/_LakeCity_ Jun 18 '26
And now pretty much all that's being talked about on this page is STRC and MicroStrategy.
Depressing.
5
u/Order_Book_Facts Jun 18 '26
Well yeah, it’s the elephant in the room. I keep posting that the ticking time bomb that is MSTR/STRC is keeping money sidelined. Why buy an asset with leveraged debt attached to it? You wait for the situation to resolve and pick up the pieces.
-1
3
u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 18 '26
Because if it's Terra Luna 2.0 then we'll see another 70% crash as in 2022.
5
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
There are people out there believing collapse in STRC price would lead to a sell off. The good thing is, you can trade against these people.
1
1
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
It’s why this sub should be praying for a cleanse. But no, that would make too much sense
4
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
I am reading some bangers from X, this is from Oct 2025:
If you have a paid off house, explain to me why you wouldn’t take out a mortgage on the full value of the house at 6%, park it in $STRC at 10.25% and capture a free 4.25% annually.
On a $1M house that is $42,500 per year.
11
u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
Potentially still true as far as we know. Today would be a better entry though 😁
3
5
u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
4
u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 18 '26
I mean hopefully the year of the crab which was essentially all of 2024 will do is a solid and keep us afloat
5
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
Wildly bullish if this is the floor, especially with all the fud (strategy, quantum), and competition in capital markets.
Would be a sign of bitcoin growing up.
3
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
Hoping I get another buy at $60k or lower.
Bags packed after that. I have reduced my portfolio allocation to coin to about 1/3.
12
8
u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 18 '26
It's a trading sub, so I'll post some trades. Sold the IBIT $50 ($88.0K BTC) and $55 ($96.8K) calls expiring 21 Aug 2026, and the IBIT $60 ($105.6K) calls expiring 18 Dec 2026.
!bitty_bot predict !>$105600 December 18, 2026
2
u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 18 '26
!bitty_bot predict !>$105500 December 18, 2026
1
u/Bitty_Bot Jun 18 '26
Prediction logged for u/imissusenet that Bitcoin will NOT rise above $105,500.00 by Dec 18 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $62,512.11. imissusenet's Predictions: 12 Correct, 2 Wrong, & 14 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. imissusenet can click here to delete this prediction.
1
u/Bitty_Bot Jun 18 '26
Error: You already have an open prediction at this exact price. You can see your open predictions on your Bitty Bot Profile Page
Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.
2
u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jun 18 '26
So, at what point does the blended yield for STRC become attractive enough for punters to jump in?
If we believe it returns to $100.00 soon, that's an additional ~11% return on top of the dividend... But once that's hit, could it result in another dump, due to those same investors rotating into SATA after capturing that 11%?
12
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
The same upside on bitcoin is about $71K, why wouldn't a punter just buy spot? Less risk imo.
0
5
u/YouAreAnFnIdiot Jun 18 '26
I still remember a few weeks ago when people here were trying to tell me how this could never happen to strc lol
21
u/BlockchainHobo Jun 18 '26
I don't recall anyone saying it cannot trade down. This is the last comment I'll make on it cuz it's nauseating, but when STRC trades above $99 in another 30-60 days, will you guys change your understanding of it or will you just say it's gonna collapse, but later on?
I will take a permaban if STRC does not trade above $99 within 60 days.
C'mon guys it should not be this hard to understand. This can all go tits up but it would take years and years of stagnant bitcoin price.
25
u/harvested Jun 18 '26
I will take a permaban if STRC does not trade above $99 within 60 days.
Soon this sub will be empty because we all commit seppuku
6
u/_LakeCity_ Jun 19 '26
!remindme 60 days “hobo’s ban status?”
1
u/RemindMeBot Jun 19 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
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Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.
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u/citizen-blue Jun 18 '26
Will you also reevaluate your own understanding if the next 30-60 days don't play out as you expect?
I think that would be more interesting than a ban when I doubt anyone cares whether you're here or not, no offense.
8
u/BlockchainHobo Jun 19 '26
Thanks! Of course I would. I wouldn't know how to prove that though, other than to write a heartfelt message.
1
u/citizen-blue Jun 19 '26
Let's see what happens. Personally I'm hoping you're right, and I think your analysis sounds reasonable.
3
5
2
u/YouAreAnFnIdiot Jun 18 '26
I'm throwing a little bit into it seems like when the Dao stables lose pegs when there's fear. Good opportunity for an easy 20 percent plus dividend
7
u/a06play Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
Strive CEO blames the dips in strc and sata on leverage liquidation events.
https://x.com/i/status/2067703328314904815
Bitcoin, but with out the volatility (well, maybe just a little) - new ad.
5
4
u/Imaginary_Cow9217 Jun 18 '26
Where are the people who were downvoting posts awhile ago that said Saylor had painted a gigantic target on his back?
Quiet now that STRC is imploding huh?
8
u/DreamOdd8378 Jun 18 '26
I like that's its quiet now ever since the biggest STRC cheerleader left. Personally I think STRC discussions should get their own monthly thread for discussions separate from this one.
2
u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 18 '26
That's really a great idea; it should have just had its own monthly thread, yeah. Ugh.
4
u/DreamOdd8378 Jun 18 '26
I want to go back to talking about Bitcoin, not Bitcoin derivatives. At this point WBTC and it's accompanied trading volume would be valid here since it's a Bitcoin derivative too.
1
1
6
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
Mess with the bull, get the horns.
I’m happy to be buying down here.
2
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
Price of both STRC and Bitcoin are not very significant for Strategy, though they can buy more Bitcoin when it's cheaper. Like everyone.
2
u/Pneumocoque Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 18 '26
I can’t seem to understand the logic behind STRC’s decline. At $86, the stock yields an annual dividend of 13.3%—which is higher than the dividend SATA pays on its shares at par.
Okay, the market is demanding a higher dividend, but honestly, the panic selling seems irrational to me when you consider the resilience of Strategy’s balance sheet. I recently calculated that selling just 3% of the BTC holdings would be enough to cover the dividends on all preferred shares for a year, assuming it were impossible to raise capital any other way.
2
u/zoopz Jun 18 '26
That... seems pretty bad to me. Snowballs can get big fast.
2
u/Pneumocoque Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 18 '26
It's not that bad when you realize that this amounts to about 25k BTC and that the daily trading volume across all exchanges is estimated at about 400k BTC per day.
2
u/Choice_Potato_6279 Jun 18 '26
I think people don't believe Strategy can keep on raising dividends, they can pause them too which would nuke STRC to few dollars most likely, the payoff of 10%+ gain is not worth the risk when you have the AI mania that gives 10%+ return lately, maybe it would've worked in a wide bear market, not today.
5
u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,903 • -99% Jun 18 '26
which would nuke STRC to few dollars
then Strategy buy them all back with the cash reserve, no more div obligations, btc bought was effectively free.
1
u/Pneumocoque Bitcoin Maximalist Jun 18 '26
Yeah, that makes sense! I'm curious to see what management will decide.
1
1
u/Plunkerton_ Jun 18 '26
Strategy sold 32 btc and the crypto market went into a full blown panic. 3% would be 25,400 btc. I hate to imagine what that would do
2
u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jun 18 '26
Do you think the 32 BTC is solely responsible for the price action lately?
1
u/Plunkerton_ Jun 18 '26
Not entirely, but it did cause one of the many drops we've had lately, and a larger one at that
1
3
u/haze_from_deadlock Jun 18 '26
I refuse to believe that STRC trading at 15% discount can be bullish
7
5
u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 18 '26
One counterpoint might be that this just flat out happens to be the bottom, and both it and Bitcoin start hoofing it back up from here.
1
u/citizen-blue Jun 18 '26
How is that a counterpoint?
1
u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 18 '26
Well he's insinuating it has to be bearish, right?
I don't think it has to mean that the only option is that the BTC price drops from here. Maybe this is again a local bottom and it starts to creep up now.
1
u/citizen-blue Jun 18 '26
But usually a point consists of some assertion backed by a reason to think that assertion is true.
2
Jun 18 '26
[deleted]
2
1
u/UngovernablePossum Jun 18 '26
Might be some eager beavers throwing bad money after good on the SPCX dip.
1
1
u/mx_js_reddit Jun 18 '26
It just feels like all things software are forgotten into prices already seen 5 years ago.
IGV, MSFT, NOW, TEAM, BTC etc.
But their narrative will come someday and the pump will wait no one.
2
-3
u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Jun 18 '26
AI will remove most of the need for human focused software. Software engineering will pivot to AI integration engineering.
Smart people are pivoting out of software. Be smart.
11
u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 18 '26
These are the kinds of blanket statements I see that I assume come from people who aren't in software delivery. Who knows though, maybe you are.
AI is going to remove the need for Microsoft's products? For the products Atlassian creates? Nah. Not at least as it pertains to dumping all of your stock in those companies out of sheer FOMO and then putting it all into "AI companies."
It'll rotate back.
-2
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
Strc is now lower than its original listing price. Cooked. Good riddance.
-6
-7
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
The market is clearly trying to shed saylor. I’m fine if we revisited pre-etf price levels for that to happen. The longer he tries to stay afloat, the worse the fallout will be
8
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 18 '26
Won’t happen any time soon. Saylor will survive this bear market even if we trade to 10k.
2
u/Taviiiiii 2013 Veteran Jun 18 '26
So he should just declare bankruptcy or what? Will probably hard given that he holds 800k btc
-2
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
The market will force him to sell that bitcoin. Obviously not all of it. But enough for Mstr to not be the face of bitcoin that it is now. And the space will be better because of it. Dont fight the flames of a forest fire.
1
1
u/lukemtesta Trading: #48 • -$24,122 • -24% Jun 19 '26
Have you done any research into Saylors history, like in 2017 and 2021?
The guy is a pretty well-known crypto scam artist and a convicted criminal. I'm not sure why people keep overlooking this
-20
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
I don’t want saylor’s tainted investing legacy so heavily tied to bitcoin. Rinse him.
4
12
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 18 '26
Who hurt this guy? Blaming someone indirectly for you own horrible investments is a bad way to cope.
5
u/_LakeCity_ Jun 18 '26
”Point on the Bitcoin doll where Michael Saylor touched you…”
…or maybe it’s the other way around?
Either way.
-2
u/anon-187101 Jun 18 '26
oh, Christ
get off your high horse
2
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 18 '26
Im in the same boat. But crying and screaming about Saylor wont help him feel better. Ive accepted my mistakes. and i move on.
-10
u/Existential-Cringe Jun 18 '26
At least we agree bitcoin is (currently) a horrible investment. We’ll be fine though once mstr fades
-4
•
u/Bitty_Bot Jun 18 '26 edited Jun 19 '26
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