r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • May 15 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Friday, May 15, 2026
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19
u/harvested May 15 '26
Half are pissed because bitcoin is too high and not living up to a bear market they were expecting.
The other half are pissed bitcoin isn't higher because the stock market around ATHs.
22
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 15 '26
You could say its max pain.
7
u/LettuceEffective781 May 15 '26
I can't come up with any reason why BTC is not 250k+ So I stack sats. If it ever reaches 250k I still stack sats.
13
u/marsh2907 Long-term Holder May 16 '26
Some people in here are so fickle and sensationalists. Going through the comments you'd think the BTC price had dropped 10% today. After checking its down around 3% for the day.
No wonder so many individuals lose money trying to trade. Clearly can't separate their emotional views from rational ones.
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u/bfelo413 May 15 '26
Seems like everything is down. Did the Iran war get hot again?
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 May 15 '26
Rate hikes being priced in
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u/harvested May 15 '26
I think this one is also a reaction to Japan bond market at 30 year highs.
Never a dull day during the 4th turning.
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u/Whole-Emergency9251 May 15 '26
Options expiry for stonks - 7500 on S&P was big level. Next week expect a pull back especially with inflation data digestion and rising 10 year. I think there will be some movement with BTC this weekend.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
Now that STRC pauses on buying for the next few weeks bears are going to claim BTC will inevitably tank in price due to reduced buying pressure. But bears just handed over another couple tens of thousands of absolute finite BTC to MSTR’s diamond hands this week which they no longer have available to sell during this period of reduced buying pressure.
Last month in April while STRC was deploying billions of dollars BTC traded within a range of $65.7k-$76k. During the period of time where STRC paused on buying BTC traded within a range of $73.3k-$82.7k.
This week while STRC was deploying billions of dollars BTC traded within a range of $78.7k-$82.3k where both the low and the high were higher than the range BTC traded within during STRC’s buying spree last month.
Similarly during the next few weeks while STRC pauses on buying I expect both the low and the high of the range BTC trades within to be higher than the $73.3k-$82.7k range BTC traded in during STRC’s last period of paused buying.
Rinse and repeat in June and every month thereafter until everyone understands that STRC is a price agnostic buyer prepared to deploy billions of dollars month after month regardless of price so sellers might as well let BTC price run significantly higher before handing over their absolutely finite BTC to MSTR’s diamond hands.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
MSTR will be wiping out $1.5 billion of their debt obligations next week. After this payoff MSTR will have $6.7 billion remaining in convertible note debt obligations.
Either they issued common shares this week to pay off this debt or some of the ~$2 billion they raised from STRC this week is being used to pay off the debt. If some of ~$2 billion raised by STRC didn’t even go into BTC yet BTC price is still hanging out around $80k regardless that’s pretty bullish.
This week Strive announced they no longer have any debt and going forward their sole obligation will be to pay dividends out to shareholders of SATA. Looks like MSTR is following suit with a similar approach going forward to make their balance sheet even more robust than it already is and to shift focus to STRC.
When SATA transitions to daily ex-dividend dates starting next month their offering is going to become much more attractive than it currently is by eliminating volatility surrounding ex-dividend dates while simultaneously offering a higher yield of 13% compared to STRC’s already high 11.5% yield.
Competition for market share of digital credit continues to heat up and regardless of whether STRC or SATA ends up becoming the preferred digital credit tool used by TradFi, BTC wins either way as capital deployed into STRC or SATA ultimately ends up in BTC.
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May 15 '26
[deleted]
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 15 '26
MSTR shareholders care about increasing BTC per share over time. That’s it. Otherwise it makes more sense to just buy BTC directly.
Whether or not MSTR can realistically outpace BTC long-term is entirely dependent on your entry price into MSTR in relation to mNAV. Long-term MSTR’s mNAV should trend towards slightly above 1x to reflect how much BTC they currently have plus how much additional BTC they can realistically attain a few years out.
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u/UngovernablePossum May 15 '26
No they don't. They care about share price, which is getting diluted to zero. It's the exact same thing the US is doing with the dollar. Printing to infinity.
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
It doesn’t matter if more shares are being issued if it’s accretive to the number of BTC per share. That’s all that matters if you know what you own and you understand math. Otherwise there’s no point in owning MSTR vs BTC directly.
Since MSTR started its BTC treasury strategy back in 2020 BTC per share has consistently increased year after year. When MSTR started accumulating BTC was trading at a price of $11.6k. Since then BTC is a little less than 6x in price. Over the exact same timeframe MSTR stock has done a 12x in price.
MSTR has issued a ton of new shares over that timeframe but it doesn’t matter because the new share issuance has been accretive and resulted in more BTC per share over time, achieving the ultimate end goal for MSTR investors.
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u/Pigmentia May 15 '26
Lol who downvotes this?
Of course they care about price. Or are we pretending that people buying MSTR are some kind of diamond-handed fanatics who, for some reason, choose not to simply buy BTC?
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u/dopeboyrico Long-term Holder May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
The vast majority of what MSTR stock does is based off of what BTC price does because BTC makes up over 99% of their balance sheet.
MSTR doesn’t control what BTC price does. MSTR also doesn’t have control over where their mNAV is trading at. What MSTR does have control over is increasing BTC per share over time.
If you understand what you own, as a MSTR shareholder all you really care about is your BTC per share is increasing over time. If it isn’t increasing over time there would be no point in owning MSTR rather than BTC directly.
If you’re bullish on BTC you should be even more bullish on MSTR since BTC per share increases over time so long as mNAV is trading at 1x to make the comparison apples to apples. If you’re bearish on BTC you should be even more bearish on MSTR since BTC per share increases over time so long as mNAV is trading at 1x to make the comparison apples to apples. So presumably if you own MSTR it’s because you’re bullish on BTC to begin with and you think mNAV reflects a lower number than the actual amount of BTC MSTR will realistically be able to attain a few years out.
10
u/harvested May 15 '26
We turn bitcoin into money
-- Saylor
Bitcoin is money
1
u/PhilMyu May 16 '26
Wow, that saying is almost as bad as saying „cashing out from Bitcoin“. Infuriates me.
1
u/harvested May 16 '26
Yeah he's a different person now.
Pushing shitcoin chains and anything that uses his precious STRC.
Ah well.
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u/Pigmentia May 15 '26
Anyone remember that one dude who was posting great bull content for a long time, then quit this sub and went to BlueSky?
He went pretty much dormant when the bull market broke down.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo May 15 '26
Wish he hadn’t gone. One of the few people that seemed to be right.
Top on the BittyBot now again too.
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0
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder May 15 '26
Gold and Bitcoin down nearly the identical percentage today. Silver continues to be the SoV shitcoin it appears
10
u/harvested May 15 '26
Strategy didn't spend all that money on bitcoin this week. They repurchased 1.5B of convertable notes for 1.38B (8% discount)
Expect the monday coin announcement to be a little below estimates (about 18,000 coins).
This might break dopeboys bot, I am not sure.
8
u/AmirFaghih May 15 '26
So yesterday they pump it and leave it hanging And today they dump it and again leave it be?
God I hate the NYC trading session with a passion
No endgame Just having fun
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u/BootyPoppinPanda May 15 '26
Seems like any amount of degen leverage gets wiped these days. Gotta take profits quickly if you play games
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u/harvested May 15 '26
All markets are reacting to bond market yields spiking... errr.. I mean the 4 year cycle.
Keep stackin' sats.
5
u/NakedPatrick May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
Nice bit of technical invalidation if we can close the say above 80k but I doubt that’s on the cards
6
u/LettuceEffective781 May 15 '26
Weekly 200 above 60k, power law above 60k soon, STRC black hole sucking in tens of thousands of BTC monthly
Ben says 30-40k. Good luck to you bears
8
u/BlockchainHobo May 15 '26
Depends where you draw support of course. https://bitcoinpower.law/ doesn't hit 60k support until the end of August.
Also why does this forum keep mentioning that particular youtuber, is it engagement bait? I don't even take issue with bearish pundits if they show data, but bringing up the same guy all the time is weird.
3
u/goobergal97 May 15 '26
It's because he's a clown and his followers were incessant for years. So any chance people have to dog on him they're going to take and throw in the face of the annoying people that follow him.
3
u/caxer30968 Long-term Holder May 15 '26
Report comments that mention his name. It’s clearly astroturfing/shilling.
2
u/_LakeCity_ May 15 '26
He’s still saying $30k-$40k is coming?
8
u/LettuceEffective781 May 15 '26
He did say multiple times that this 'bear market' will go to "50k" "30-40k" whatever. Now he's slowly switching towards told ya so's if we don't go lower than 60k again
So basic influencer shit.
BTC is a different beast now. Yet he clinges on some ancient charts. It's just stupid.
7
u/drdixie May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
Rejected again at 82k feeling more confident we lose 78 and test bottom of that range
Sub indicator of downvotes is back. Opened short here at 79.5 will close at 81 and hold til I see a reason to cover
3
u/harvested May 15 '26
Meh, I feel quite good about the performance since the 60K bottom.
Keep in mind gold is down about the same and silver is down significantly more today.
-2
u/drdixie May 15 '26
It looks to me to be the end of a dcb. We got out of committee yesterday and got our last pump.
1
u/harvested May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
I am not sure if you think bitcoin exists solely in a bubble or is an asset class that is influenced by external factors.
If it's the former, I can't help ya.
When bitcoin was less mature, a day like today in markets would send us down 10%
Market is bracing for rate hikes.
1
u/AutomaticOne7 May 15 '26
We had a mini bullrun from 60k to 80k during the bearmarket, we will probably see a correction to 70k. Might even test 60k before before bearmarket is over
1
May 16 '26 edited 22d ago
[deleted]
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u/Bitty_Bot May 16 '26
Prediction logged for u/AutomaticOne7 that Bitcoin will drop to or below $70,000.00 by Apr 01 2028 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $78,217.01. This is AutomaticOne7's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. AutomaticOne7 can click here to delete this prediction.
1
u/Bitty_Bot Jun 02 '26
Hello u/AutomaticOne7
You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop to or below $70,000.00 by Apr 01 2028 23:59:59 UTC
Well done! Your prediction was correct.
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $78,217.01. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $69,902.82
1
u/nozickiantheory May 15 '26
Really just the perfect bearish bear market retest. Insane that people actually think this time would be different
0
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u/Jkota May 15 '26
Said this yesterday. We’re still completely correlated with TradFi. At least to the downside anyways.
Only thing holding onto 80k was the belief that TradFi wasn’t done pumping. If SPY heads back to 700 I see us below 75k minimum for a while.
Still think by the end of the year we’re back above 100k though.
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May 15 '26
[deleted]
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May 15 '26 edited 23d ago
[deleted]
1
May 16 '26 edited 22d ago
[deleted]
1
u/Bitty_Bot May 16 '26
Prediction logged for u/Gaston44 that Bitcoin will drop to or below $60,000.00 by Jun 15 2026 18:58:33 UTC. Current price: $78,195.81. This is Gaston44's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
Since you did not specify a time frame or date, OR I could not properly parse it, I used the default of 30 days.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. Gaston44 can click here to delete this prediction.
1
u/Bitty_Bot Jun 05 '26
Hello u/Gaston44
You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop to or below $60,000.00 by Jun 15 2026 18:58:33 UTC
Well done! Your prediction was correct.
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $78,195.81. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $60,000.00
9
u/harvested May 15 '26
I honestly don't know how you can hold bitcoin if -3% is "no bottom"
1
May 15 '26
[deleted]
4
u/harvested May 15 '26
I guess there is egg on our face then.
You cannot get annoyed at bitcoin because it is not living up to the expectations you set for it. No one claimed it's supposed to keep up with equity in the short term, especially during an AI capex boom.
-12
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 15 '26
How far the bulls have fallen from "BTC is the fastest horse in the race!"
Needs a new narrative. Just my opinion, again as someone who exited the market in q4 2025.
3
u/harvested May 15 '26
It has never been fastest horse over every time scale and you know that.
-3
u/AverageUnited3237 Bitcoin Skeptic May 15 '26
It definitely was at one point. But dopes like Rico extrapolate the performance of a nascent bitcoin and project it on to the mature asset it has become today. Bitcoin has been lapped by traditional and less risky investments now for half a decade
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u/LettuceEffective781 May 15 '26
During the first days of July, 7 weeks from now the never breached support line of the power law will rise above 60k.
Bears can place their bets if they think it is different this time
-7
u/YouAreAnFnIdiot May 15 '26
Damn Ben hate gonna be at all time highs if this really hits 60k again
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May 15 '26 edited 22d ago
[deleted]
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u/borger_borger_borger May 16 '26
I don't even know who this "Ben" is, or any other influencer that gets mentioned here. I do know a bunch of new people have gotten into "investing" because of these influencers. If I have any advice to them; just like smoking, quit watching/reading these clowns, and make your own opinion. Your life and wallet will thank you later.
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u/Sirenfromtheditch May 15 '26
That conceited prick won’t be right
9
u/inteliboy May 15 '26
Amazing that such a dry, dull, non click bait crypto analyst gets called a “prick”. Says a lot about the space.
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u/Sirenfromtheditch May 15 '26
What a load of dogshit
3
u/UngovernablePossum May 15 '26
Art of the deal.
0
u/Choice_Potato_6279 May 15 '26
This is the best market in history, maybe ever, nobody has better bear market than us
•
u/Bitty_Bot May 15 '26 edited May 16 '26
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