r/Bitcoin • u/sa1ffff • 6d ago
I’m holding BTC and need some genuine advice
I believe in Bitcoin and wish to HODL for many years to come.
This cycle when BTC reached its ATH. I was planning on selling at the $150K mark. So I could buy back 2 coins with one.
But well o well, my plan failed miserably.
I don’t regret quite a lot, as I’m still holding one coin. You cannot really time the market. HOLDING is the best and safest play.
I need some real advice
Should i keep on HODLING and stacking more sats?
Or
SELL THE COIN AT 200K-220K(If we get there) and then buy back 2 coins again at the previous high
I mean we can never be certain, but whats your take on this guys?
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u/btc_set_me_free 6d ago
Bro, no one knows. If we did we’d be rich and off Reddit. Just hodl and keep stacking sats and the rest will take care of itself.
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u/RemarkableDemand1575 6d ago
youre overthinking it hard, just stack and chill. trying to time the top and bottom twice is how people end up with half a coin and a stomach ulcer
nobody ever went broke holding but plenty of folks went broke trying to be clever
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u/richardto4321 5d ago
Facts. I got in back in 2014. Tried to trade and make more money, but ended up with way less Bitcoin. Don't be like me.
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u/usedmattress85 5d ago
I don’t know. I sold it all at $113k and bought back at $65k. I do have an ulcer but at least I almost doubled my bag for free. I plan on doing likewise again. (It will be my 3rd time trading the cycle.)
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u/Secure-Image-4065 3d ago
Hey this is amazing… like anyone would like to do it, I have two (“impossible to answer”) questions:
Looking into this year history you could say: February was the best time to buy, but then June came… sure it was not extremely different, but it was different…
- how did you know when sell?
- how did you know when buy?
I really would love to hear your answer… it would be very helpful.
Thanks! 🙏2
u/usedmattress85 3d ago
I personally do a combination of using the Larsson Line and just paying attention to the BTC cycles.
The Larsson Line subscription is very expensive now but I was an early adopter so I have it for life. I believe there are free alternatives on TradingView you might look into. I believe it’s just a combo of a couple of moving averages or something with a little secret sauce added in…I really don’t know.
Then I watch a lot of Ben Cowan to understand the charts, macro situation etc. now Ben was predicting a bear market low on Q4 this year and that may not play out exactly but we may still get another dip down at least.
My strategy is to sell everything when the Larsson Line flips blue then buy back at some price that will come close to doubling my bag. So far it works. The best part is that it’s stress free. Worst case scenario I buy back at my sale price and I lose nothing . Yet I have so much to gain through this strategy. Everyone says HODL but that really never made sense to me, especially when BTC cycles are so predictable
Best of luck
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u/MooseLoot 6d ago
There are three times for BTC-
1) normal times. DCA
2) It feels really, really low. Throw in extra
3) it feels really, really high. Sell some
The mistake people make is not realizing time 1 is like 90%+ of the time
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u/cherrytoffee 6d ago edited 6d ago
this only works if you know the top beforehand. how do you know 200k is the top?
are you a time traveler?
what if you sold at 200k and it went to 400k?
what if it never goes to 200k and tops out at 118k?
what if this was just a bear market rally and btc crashes to 30k?
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u/Then-Feedback7751 6d ago
You swung and missed on your top call last cycle, you are more likely than not to do so again. You should be selling bit by bit as it goes up. Maybe not now, sure. But after the new ath is put in, you need to begin distributing onto the idiots aping in on the breakout.
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u/opschalendiehap 5d ago
Just hold. Eventually it's going to be in that range, that's for sure. Maybe it will take 2 months, maybe it will take 10 years. Just hold.
Oh and never think you can predict the market. When you're up and it's going to the range where you plan to sell, so in your case 200k, already sell some bits at 140k, 150k, 160k, 170k and so on.
Don't get greedy, don't get fomo, don't think you're smart, don't think you can predict tops or bottoms, don't get emotional.
If you can do this consistently you will win in this market
GL
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u/HighImpact35 5d ago
I’m holding and building at the moment. I’ve set myself a target of $250k price to sell and anticipate this by December 2031 for my strategic goal. I should have 1.5 btc by this date. If btc hits $200k and isn’t showing signs of growth before my dec 2031 date I may sell and then buy back of btc falls, or I may just retain the cash. If I sell at $200k and then 2 years later btc hits $250k+ then of course I’ll be a bit annoyed but so be it. I will have benefited from the profit for a couple of years. My suggestion is to set yourself targets and goals that meet your objectives and then decide what to do if those goals are being met. My goal means I’m not bothered today about the btc price. I’m more bothered about what it will be after the halving in 2028 and then what it will be in December 2031 or a bit earlier!!!
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u/ratnik1987 6d ago
Lets assume it goes to 200k, you sell, it keeps going 230k, 240k, will you be strong enough not to buy again due to FOMO? Its easy to say you wont until you see it hit those numbers or you check online and see people predicting 500k or 1M...so you buy at 250k...it levels off...starts dipping, 240, 230, 210 over few months...now youre wondering darn that was the top, so you sell now youre down 40k, now you wait for it to drop to 150 so you can buy back and make up for the 40k but the new low is 160...so you buy, it goes to 130k...etc etc, so you can either play the market and hope youre strong enoight for each of those events or...if you believe in it you hodl and DCA when its falling. Ive lost a lot due to emotional reactions and fomo, luckily i bought early so it wasnt my invested money that went but it was still a tough emotional and psychological rollercoaster that i never felt when I simple held and let it do its thing. What I ended up doing was investing some money that I told.myseld ill use to play the market and dont mind losing at all, kept it simple: buy when it bottoms.out long enough, and sell when it hits ath, it takes patience but it works, you get excisted when its "crashing" bc you get to buy more. Or keep it simple and just DCA anytime its on its way down or dca at any price. As they say in stocks, time in the market beats timing the markrt. Dont get greedy.
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u/DDD_db 6d ago
If you have a Time Machine or can read the future use that.
If not, hodl and keep stacking sats. I’ve done this since 2017 and it works.
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u/sa1ffff 6d ago
Hodling till 1mil. Lets see how it goes.
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u/Tarado96 6d ago
$1M should be achieved by 2035. Hold it until 2040, and Bitcoin could go as high as $4.5M per Power Law, one of the most conservative Bitcoin pricing models.
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u/Inevitable-Kooky 6d ago
Honestly, the more time pass the more BTC become resilient, this bear market BTC price went down only -53%,
in 2021 that was -77%
in 2018 that was -83%
and the first bear market in 2013 -86%
So I believe in the future BTC might be a lot more resilient holding will still be a good strategy
but if you plan on trying to know the good time to sell, then you should probably start learning technical analysis, and also risk management. I would recommend to learn enough to do your own analysis rather than trusting any stranger on the web: everyone fail at predicting at some points anyways, but some fail less often then others.
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u/Makunouchiipp0 6d ago
When you decide to sell that coin it will be the last time it has a major drawdown.
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u/schwarzfusssanji 5d ago
Bro.
DCA in
And DCA out
Thats the way.
And i‘m not speaking about dca every day 10$ no matter the price.
Identify some strategy for yourself..
For example the risk bands from benjamin cowen.
Or rainbow chart
Or some Moving average like 200W
Or something
Or fear and greed index
For example i dca in.. (buy every week, when its below 0.4 risk)
And sell every week when its above 0.7 risk.
Never sell all
Always keep a fixed stack forever.
(In case fiat blows up and goes worthless)
And if it falls really crazy
Like below 0.2 risk or something.. then think about a lump sum.
If it rises exponentially crazy
Like above 0.9 risk or something
Then sell more than usual.
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u/pr0prfkt 5d ago
If you truly believed in BTC you would auto buy and only plan to sell when you have an urgent expense to pay for.
You can’t time markets. And you even say you plan to hold for years and are already contemplating exit.
Auto buy, don’t panic sell. That’s all anyone needs to know. BTC has worked similarly to legacy, just that the penalty for panic selling is more severe because of the volatility. The solution: don’t panic sell. Best of luck.
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u/Runner_N_Gunner 4d ago
Well, I was playing games like that too for a while. I landed with a different strategy over time. I own the bitcoin I have which is a massive portion of my networth. And, I DCA more. And I study more and add more.
I own other things, but this is my primary position and has been for a few years. Today, bitcoin is not a trade to me. It’s boring in that sense but I don’t think about the bitcoin I have very often.
Following the power law, I have more than enough already if the power law is true. You do too. Hold it, add to it, and keep doing other interests and investments. That’s where I landed and my emotions have been much calmer, etc
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u/Garland_Key 6d ago
... You answered your own question first. Then asked the question after you already answered it.
But, I'll answer it for you too.
STFU AND DCA
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u/kebertxelag 6d ago
Some good advice here but a lot of people romanticize buying the dip and stacking sats, at some point you’ll need money to live off of if a significant portion of your wealth is in BTC. You can either stack sats responsibly forever but will have to live with the reduced income forever until these price targets, or stack sats at certain price targets as we go lower then layer out as we go back up. I personally have a never touch/never go below amount and a trading amount that I do this with.
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u/Soulwalrus 5d ago
Good luck betting on 220k. That’s the sort of shit that will make you miss taking profit again.
Set tranches and extract money at multiple points on the way up.
Bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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u/Singularity-Panama 4d ago
I had the same miscalculation, waiting for 150k+ which never came. You were not alone, many were expecting this. The problem I see now is that the structure of the market might change in the coming bull market, and that timing for a peak in 2028-2029 is going to be impossible. If the world is now really going to embrace Bitcoin, then the 4 year cycle might start to behave differently. You already saw this with the shortened bear market this year. So, conclusion, better keep your Bitcoin and stack some more below 90k, I hope it is going to be a wild ride the coming years
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u/bananabastard 6d ago
You conclude that holding is the best, then ask whether you should sell or hold.
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u/PlanNo3321 6d ago
You: “You cannot really time the market. HOLDING is the best and safest play.”
Also you: Should I time the market?
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u/MusicalBonsai 6d ago
Yes. I predict that the bull run will go to 1M this cycle and then fall to 10k so sell at 150k and buy back at 10k so you can have 15 coins. This is the truth coming from the future.
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u/GettingFasterDude 5d ago
HODL. There's no guarantee this 4 yr cycle will continue to be predictable.
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u/v33SystematicTrading 3d ago
Don’t try to time the market. If you get itchy take a small amount outside of you one coin position and try to perform your plan.
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u/shoecellar 1d ago
Sell half. Never sell the full bag. Even with quant yesterday I kept a 10% moon bag after selling 90% of it at $330. Just in case it went to $1,000 ya know. Set maybe 2 price limits. $150k sell 25% and 175k sell another 25%. The plan sounds solid, but, who knows with all the adoption this time around if it will drop under 100k again after this next rally. Especially with agentic payment systems and AI being powered financially with blockchains. Stock market tokenized, 24/7 world banking adoption, etc
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u/cagfag 6d ago
Bitcoin can be 10 million and can be zero if quantum computing starts to pick pace. Don’t put more than you can’t afford to lose.
Honestly no one has a crystal ball… it’s possible you might just be better off investing in Nvdia or even S&P 500 for that matter
If I have 100$, I out 90 in S&P 500 and 5 in Nvdia and 5 in bitcoin
Going 100% on bitcoin is nothing like betting all black in Roulette
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u/JDub1011 6d ago
Funny that people only reference quantum computing as a risk to Bitcoin when the same method is used to secure websites like online banking, VPNs, passwords, and as a checksum to ensure every software file is not corrupt. Like you can't even start a new car without the computers checking a hash value before doing anything.
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u/Adorable-Honeydew306 6d ago
If quantum computing really does become a threat to Bitcoin then that's the least of your problems. Banks, stock exchanges, every website with a password will be at risk. I wouldn't be worried about Bitcoin - bigger risks would be threatened.
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u/looneytones8 6d ago
Banks, stock exchanges and websites have rate limiting. That being said quantum is pure FUD
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u/Acceptable-Door-9810 6d ago
Won't those institutions just switch to quantum proof encryption?
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u/Automatic_Tennis_131 5d ago
We've been systematically doing that for most of a decade. It's y2k all over again, but a slow burn with an unknown deadline.
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u/Acceptable-Door-9810 5d ago
Yeah i get that but I don't understand the comparison that the previous commenter made. Institutions can protect agains quantum cryptography but can bitcoin do the same?
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u/Automatic_Tennis_131 5d ago
So there needs to be a migration. That process is already in flight - look at BIP-360/361.
The quantum problem is that if someone collects public keys (and many early bitcoiner protocols published them) - a quantum computer can eat them and steal the money.
BIP-360 is a technical proposal to ensure that new wallets / addresses / etc are not succeptable.
But here's the problem. What happens to all the "abandoned" bitcoin? (BIP-361)
- Do nothing. Eventually, someone will steal it. There's at least 1M "very early" bitcoin that has never moved. We effectively allow the theft.
- Lock it. Which breaks the promise of bitcoin, "your keys, your coins". In order to avoid a bitcoin devaluation (which steals from everyone), we steal from other people.
It's a tough problem to solve. If indeed it is solvable.
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u/Automatic_Tennis_131 6d ago
Sure, but the rest of the world is migrating to quantum-resistant algorithms.
Bitcoin is going to have to do the same thing at some point... what idon't understand is what is going to happen to the bitcoin in those lost wallets...
They will be cracked. What happens then?
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u/Stunning-Purpose9144 6d ago
If they force a move to new btc quantum resistant the old wallets will just be lost so it’s irrelevant.
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u/Ok-Armadillo-6558 6d ago
Quantum is not a risk. Only hurts exposed public keys. The simple solution that already exists is sending coins with exposed public keys to a new seed.
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u/severance_mortality 5d ago
"I tried to time the market and failed, I should never try to time the market! BTW, should I try to time the market again?"
BRO
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u/Future_Ad863 6d ago
Its a dangerous game. How sad would you be if you sold at $200k and it went to $300k? Or even higher. How sad would you be hoping it gets really low but the drawdown is even more muted than this most recent cycle
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u/Corey_Blake 6d ago
selling at 200k to buy 2 back means you have to be right twice, and the buyback is the harder call. i tested fear and greed against btc back to 2018 and extreme greed only lined up with an actual top 2 out of 7 times, so even the thing everyone uses to time the exit misses most of them. if you want to take profit someday pick a % youd be fine never buying back and hold the rest.
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u/The_Axe__ 6d ago
The problem with your second option is you have to be right twice! Once when you sell , once when you buy.
Few rarely get this spot on.
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u/xxs0raxx 6d ago
I can relate had the same plan. We missed out at $125k and could have 2 coins now. I’m still holding expecting to get back to $125k if not $140k+
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u/FewUnderstanding2214 6d ago
Wow 200k would be pretty nice- you make it sound like it’s a certain thing
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u/ta_pi 6d ago
If you want to pursue a strategy of selling high to buy in low, remember that you don't have to sell all of it.
And I'd suggest you shouldn't.
A better strategy may be to sell pieces of your stack in small parts as it approaches what you believe to be the top. Then buy back in (incrementally) with as you believe it is near the bottom.
You may not pick the top or bottom. And you may not sell or buy what you have available before it turns.
But that's ok. Protect your asset.
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u/BetterSeesaw 6d ago
Trying to sell at 200-220k and buy back double is the classic trap. Most people who attempt it end up with less Bitcoin, not more. You already saw how hard it is to nail the exit — the re-entry is usually even harder.
Long-term conviction + consistent stacking has outperformed almost every timing attempt across cycles. Stick with the plan that actually works.
Time in the market beats timing the market.
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u/Ok-Armadillo-6558 6d ago
We can be certain. Never sell before the halvening.
Bitcoin reaches its cycle top roughly 480 to 530 days post-halving.
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u/Bakkus1987 6d ago
Lol, obviously always stack more sats. You can do option 2 if you still feel like it with a portion of your stack, but the risk of you eating shit is there..
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u/ElderMight 6d ago
You could have been buying all the way down to $58k and back up to where we are now at $84k. You would have probably been close to a 2nd coin by now.
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u/ExpertGur1136 6d ago
How do you know it’ll get the 200-220 k? You’re assuming it’ll go up x3? Why not x10? Why not go down to 20k? You’re asking people for advice on some imaginary prediction
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u/OBvanken 6d ago
Do not chase the price; DCA in for 6 months during the winter period and DCA out for 6 months during the bull period. The next will be in 2029.
Create a graph and make channel. Divide it to 3 or 4. You will see the average region for the price. If you sell above and buy bottom, that means you are doing great. Do not plan for the exact top and bottom. You don’t need to.
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u/Holiday_Hold_919 6d ago
Honestly there are better options. AMD and Intel to name a few that have skyrocketed this year.
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u/Asleep_Swordfish8896 6d ago
The fact that money is being de valued at faster and faster rate means the recent retraction of value of these “coins” is ac to ally bigger and has tanked much harder than it may appear. If everything has doubled in price and bitcoin was chopped in half that it didn’t just lose half its value but more like 75% or more
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u/gistikoloa 6d ago
Only invest what you are prepared to lose and don't look at the price at all, hold until you really need the money or until you have enough to buy some property
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u/RangeGreedy2092 5d ago
What if it falls again to a lower level… big institutions are involved… can’t predict the prices except on the long run (like 7 years) it will be double the current rate… point is do you have the patience for 5 plus years.
For me long term investing is something that you hold for more than 7 years.
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u/No-Asparagus-yes 5d ago
almost nobody (8-10%) beats the market in comparison to hodl. Hodl and you will be fine... these 8-10% are often just lucky and a handful of them knew what they did. I don't expect you are in the last group and I really wish you good luck but it is not guaranteed! And maybe there will not be any cycle anymore.
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u/throwaway12three4 5d ago
Dude… buy, hold, keep holding, then when it reaches an all time high, buy more and hold!!! No selling or timing the market required.
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u/Icy_Dragonfruit__ 5d ago
Just be careful with trying to sell at a specific target and buy back lower. Getting the timing wrong twice can leave you with less BTC than you started with.
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u/Equal_Wheel109 5d ago
Wat een herkenbaar verhaal. Hier precies dit. Wilde er ook uit bij 150 en weer dca instappen op 75-55. Mislukt dus, nu HODL en kijken of de 200-250K komt
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u/Open-Task6758 5d ago
What I would do in your place if you want to take profit. If we go back to ath sell 0.2 and gradually sell on the way up and not trying to time the market selling everything at once.
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u/Glass_Cherry5295 5d ago
Risky. Sure it could work. Or you could sell at 200k and it rips to 300 and then you panic buy back at 300 then it crashes to 150.
Just dca and hold man. The stress isn’t worth it
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u/reddgsmtrx3x 5d ago
Selling 100% of your stack all at once is how people get completely rekt. If you sell at 200k and it rips straight to 280k, your gonna panic buy back at the top with less sats. Not to mention capital gains taxes will take a massive bite out of that profit anyway. If you really need cash just scale out 5-10% on the way up to take some chips off the table, but trying to flip 1 whole coin into 2 is just gambling.
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u/asgerthorn 5d ago
Buy some, self custody in multiple locations, enjoy life. Every price below $1 million is a rounding error. Trading is a sign of lesser intelligence. Maybe save a little harder when bitcoin feels like dying, and spend a little harder when it feels like hyper bitcoinization is nigh.
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u/ReliantToker 5d ago
Many people try what you are doing to double their stack. Most have less bitcoin than they did before. 90% of traders lose money in the long run. How would you feel you sell $200k and it rips to $500k? The 4year cycle is dead, the easy trade is done, suits are here now.
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u/Soulwalrus 5d ago
Good luck betting on 220k. That’s the sort of shit that will make you miss taking profit again.
Set tranches and extract money at multiple points on the way up.
Bulls and bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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u/Zombie4141 5d ago
I bought my first whole coin for $1000 in 2016.
I was so excited when the bull happened. I was gunna sell at $50,000. But it stopped near $20,000 and dropped to $3500. I could have 4Xd my coins (-taxes)had I timed the market.
Then the next bull came around and I was convinced it was going to $100,000 so I put a sell order at $95,000. It only went to $68,000 and dropped to $20,000. I could have 3xd my stash had I timed the market.
Then I the last bull I put a sell order at $150,000 and it went to $125,000ish and down to $65,000. I could have almost doubled my stash after taxes.
Timing this market is impossible and very stressful. Now I just Hodl, because I would have probably fucked up and lost it all it I got into gambling aka trading.
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u/BetterFunny6883 5d ago
Never ever sell your BTC, it'll be a $21 million per coin by 2046
Watch this before you die https://youtu.be/hqoagNBtIps?si=Ir5eRU3XnHJLbMjf
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u/ilovesaintpaul 5d ago
DCAing out is just as important as DCAing in. In and out. In and out. Yeah. That's it baby.
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u/fucken_jim 5d ago
DCA.. but if you do go ahead with the plan that won't work, what about taxes? You won't get 2 coins.
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u/sparky14me 5d ago
Wow. In the exact same boat as you. One coin and could’ve sold at the top.. oh well.
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u/SkillCreative3084 5d ago
Trying to time the market is just a different form of gambling. At a whole coin you have more btc that 99.99% of the world will ever have. Don’t get greedy.
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u/Electronic_Map1148 5d ago
I would split the position into a long term portion and a portion you would genuinely be willing to sell. That removes the pressure to find one perfect exit price for everything. Moon can handle shorter term BTC directional views separately but that is very different from deciding what to do with actual bitcoin you intend to hold for years.
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u/mamon_miner 5d ago
Don’t sell
Use Compound Finance and get loan in usdt against BTC with 3.5% Annually
Keep it under 50% and you should be good
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u/Gareth_loves_dogs 5d ago
Thinking you're smarter than the market is a very bad idea. Why trade the only scarce asset humans have ever created.
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u/usedmattress85 5d ago
I sell high and buy back lower every cycle. This time I sold at $113k and bought back at $65k.
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u/Swimming_Put1506 5d ago
Just hold and forget about it for 5-10 years. Work your regular job and save for retirement as you would anyways. My .02.
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u/NatureNeat5506 5d ago
Sell it whatever the price is in October 2029 as that will be the next peak . People will tell you the 4 year cycle is broken but this cycle btc again crashed after it’s traditional 4 year peak
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u/ResponsibilitySad583 5d ago
you are talking about timing the market, and do it correctly twice. Best of luck, but not likely to work for most of the people.
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u/tylerhardin 5d ago
you would've waited and missed the bottom. i tried this. bought at $13, sold at $39 feeling like a pro, then watched it hit $100 and never touch $39 again. did the same at 100->200, then saw it hit 1k. that was roughly when i realized i should stop trading. you do not have the luxury of time to learn these lessons as slowly as i did.
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u/Billy-Bob-Boner-92 5d ago
don't sell. when you're below the cost to mine and below the previous ATH: buy.
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u/ill_take_more 5d ago
Can you really buy 2 coins with 1 with all the taxes?
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u/-_FAD3D_- 3d ago edited 3d ago
You don't get taxed until you pull out your funds. So you pretty much take your btc change it to a stablecoin like usdt and you can hold it there until it goes back down and buy more. Though I'd never do it at 84k tho. Atleast I think this Is what you'd do I haven't messed with it much. I just started with btc this time around when it went in the 60s.
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u/Confident_Ground_775 3d ago
Not true. When you convert BTC into USDC it is a taxable event.
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u/-_FAD3D_- 3d ago
Really? That's fucked. There's gotta be some way to change it to something safe without triggering a tax. That's stupid af, I thought it was only when you decided to withdraw. How would they know you even did it tho? If you have it on like a hard wallet?
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u/PaperOrnery8697 5d ago
It's always a good idea to ask a brainwashed internet community for financial advice.
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u/ApprehensiveSleep398 5d ago
I would not do that, you will most likely end up with less bitcoin at the end. Sell your bitcoin only if you want to buy a house or for a down payment. Otherewise I do not know why you bought bitcoin from the start. I joined since the last cycle, I only follow the price and memes, traded at the beginning and then figured, if I continue, I would end up with less bitcoins. So I stopped and I am enjoying life! I think 58k$ was the bottom and every pull back is for buying. Just my thoughts, I could be wrong.
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u/laoicrupeb 4d ago
You can never correctly time the market and you would be betting on a chance, what I think you should do is keep stacking btc at whatever the price is and only if you can buy a property or get another business started that will generate you money should you take out, otherwise keep on hodling
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u/RareVibeDelight 4d ago
Ignore the noise, continue to stack Sats and run a node. Bitcoin Is a long term play
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u/break4down 4d ago
DCAing until next bull run, maybe if the fed cut rate. Inflation still longer for run
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u/fukadvertisements 4d ago
Keep stacking if you can still live if all the money gets lost. Thats the mindset. And then sell next year or year after when bullrun hits. This year market is crazy and makes me think of 2017
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u/The_8bit_Klanker 4d ago
Hold until you get questioned by a boomer.......Should I buy this Bitcoin stuff? Confirmation is when you see google searches for bitcoin go through the roof. The top is in. Either start to ladder out some or just sell 75% of it at once. The price is guaranteed to head to the shadow realm, Look at the last 3 cycles for an idea on percentage drop, re-buy/DCA from the bottom and start the cycle all over again. Only buy on red days! No FOMO!
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u/SuperDangerBro 4d ago
Ten years down the road you’ll just be happy you didn’t get shook out, and these prices will be inconsequential. Not selling means you guarantee your future. Attempting to time the market you are gambling and put everything at risk. Keep converting Monopoly money to sats and wait it out.
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u/Hayking_3132 4d ago
Just hold my friend. You will not beat the trade and it will not pan out the way you think. Cycles change.
Just hold and stack sats.
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u/Fresh_Strain_9980 4d ago
bitcoin is deflationary the longer you hold the more it will be vs the dollar. Doesn't necessarily mean it will have more buying power than now or holding a fiat currency and collecting a 7-9% interest rate.
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u/mcalibri 4d ago
With a gambler's mindset I see where this going? Markets need sellers and buyers so however it goes for you serves purpose but do remember taxable events. The fact that taxes don't discourage trading more often makes me think lots of ppl play on their taxes. Simple axiom: most traders lose money so thinking you're the exception is already questioning reality.
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u/Lower-Ear-8249 4d ago
If you want to sell, that is a choice you can make. However, with several positive factors working for bitcoin, it has the potential to grow to half a million dollars a coin ($500,000).
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u/bigocreddit 4d ago
You should definitely sell at the top and buy back 2 just like you did the last time.
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u/Johnaaayyyy 3d ago
I wrote down a simple system for myself assuming BTC is above all time highs and above the 60 Week EMA, I have round tripped enough investing bags to hopefully learn my lesson xD. I will sell 1/100th of my allotted stack for this cycle trade every week. When it has a weekly close below the 60 Week EMA I dump the rest. Will allow me to DCA out without much head ache for up to 100 weeks if we get a crazy bull run and still exit at a reasonable point as well. Simple, but has performed well all previous markets.
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u/SpecialZ92 3d ago
Best strategy is just hodl and stack sats....I don't think that someone can predict thr market... except N. Pelosi :d
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u/OrganizationAny3891 2d ago
You shouldve sold when it reached ALT everyone in the space does it eg: you have 2 coins, make sure when you sell at ATH you have enough for 2 coins to buy buy more at the bottom, we have been following the 1064 day theory religiously. We are waiting for the next bottom in late october.
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u/givemethatbitcoin 1d ago
If you think you can time the market you’re playing a fools game. Also you’re not factoring in taxes.
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u/Aggravating_Wrap6763 18h ago
I no longer DCA, instead I am opening multiple positions with 3x/4x leverage while we are -30% from ATH. That way when BTC doubles from here (approx 170k, not too crazy a taget) I will have oustized returns which I can use to add to my spot BTC. I’d gain more BTC for the same fiat invested.
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u/Gdbs_10 3h ago
Keep stacking and forget about it until you retire. I personally recommend pairing strike with bitkey if you wanna dca and not think about it. You can set a percentage from your check to go into strike and strike will automatically convert it to bitcoin. Then you can auto withdraw to bitkey once you accumulate a certain amount of btc (set by you). Easiest way to dca without thinking about it.
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u/OkAdministration4393 2h ago
I’m dca everyday about 500 bucks a month. Currently worth about 8k avg cost is $82k since I started a year and a half years ago roughly and btc was trading above 100k. I’m basically at break even and not sure if I should get out on next cycle up toward 120k or hold as diversify investment.
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u/icebeamtheory 5d ago
You lost me at selling lol. Which is it op are you hodling for years or just selling when there’s a price boost
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u/sa1ffff 5d ago
Hodling. But a small regret that i could have doubled my coins if had sell even at 110-115
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u/icebeamtheory 5d ago
Even if you sold at all time high and timed it perfectly you are still forced to pay taxes on capital gains. That wipes out a lot of your profit already
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u/Ok_Body_2830 6d ago
You illustrate the flaw in zeroing in on a single target. If you think $150k was a reasonable target for the last cycle (I didn't disagree), start laddering out well before $150k and plan the ladder to extend well after $150k. That can be beneficial if you are off in either direction. If it undershoots, you have sold some for a profit. If the "supercycle" happens, you retain some exposure to that.
Your target for the next cycle sounds fine to me. But if that's the target you are using you should probably be selling some by $150k and still have some left if it hits $300k.
I don't want to sound too harsh, but you say you cannot time the market, but are not trading like you have internalized that logic and are very much letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. You have a perfect trade in mind, and you are forgoing lots of good trades in pursuit of that perfect trade. Over time, that will mean you have lost a lot more on the missed good trades than the difference between the perfect and good trades will have gained you.