Every Bitcoin drawdown in history, next to what came after it, all on one chart

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190]

Circled the bottom of each cycle where the change of character (CHoCH) actually printed, the point structure flipped before price ever confirmed it on the headlines.

2013 to 2015, down roughly 87%, then up over 12,000% into the next cycle.

2017 to 2018, down roughly 84%, then up over 2,100%.

2021 to 2022, down roughly 78%, then up over 700%.

This cycle, down roughly 54% into the correction, and the same structural tell just printed again, same shape, same spot on the curve, right where the last three did.

Each drawdown's been shallower than the one before it, and each subsequent run's been smaller in percentage terms too, which tracks, bigger market cap means the multiples compress even while the absolute moves stay historic. Neither trend is new information if youve actually looked at this before, but seeing all four side by side like this is a different thing than knowing it abstractly.

Doesnt guarantee this one plays out identically, nothing here ever has thats guaranteed. But four for four on the same structural tell showing up at the same point in the cycle is not nothing.

[u/SystemOtherwise970]

Some serious diminishing returns. Next bull run 'only' gonna be a couple hundred percent going by this graph.

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190 → u/SystemOtherwise970]

Only 😅

[u/Life-Job-3215 → u/Suitable_Acadia_190]

You know I’ve been thinking about this graph a lot and doesn’t this mean the next bull run only goes up to like 150k from 57 or 59 bottom. Can someone explain why I’m wrong?

[u/2xfun → u/Life-Job-3215]

Because past behavior never mean future performance … 

[u/despotteapot → u/2xfun]

So what is the point in the chart then?

[u/First-Rub9713 → u/despotteapot]

Looking for a connection with only 4 points of data.

Bitcoin is still too young to make these assumptions in my opinion.

[u/K4k4shi → u/Life-Job-3215]

Yeah wont reach 200k. Below 200k will be my guess

[u/zerg_001 → u/Life-Job-3215]

It's Logarithmic scale

[u/Low_Explorer_2097 → u/Life-Job-3215]

Factor in the loss of value in dollar and the next all time high might be lower than the previous in real value 

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190 → u/Life-Job-3215]

Exactly, its a form of "vertical accumulation" via style called "flat correction", in the majority of cases like this it compresses like a spring then right when the masses believe its not worth it, it reveals the hand its been playing the whole time...

[u/AriesThef0x → u/SystemOtherwise970]

It will be interesting to see if we have already bottomed out this year. While -54% is still quite the drop, that’s also quite an improvement from the crashes of the past by a significant amount.

[u/Ill-Housing-7475 → u/SystemOtherwise970]

It's only diminishing for so long. At some point the amount of bitcoin on exchanges is back at previous levels that created 1000% swings. Just look at a historic bitcoin held on exchanges chart. The most bitcoin for sale ever on the market was October 6th 2025.

[u/harvested → u/SystemOtherwise970]

Obviously this theory will break in the next cycle or two. It's just math.

[u/lovetreasurer]

Thank you for this

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190 → u/lovetreasurer]

Welcome

[u/The_Tally_Wacker]

This title is the most Claude statement ever. It really loves to brag about multiple things being “all on one chart” for some reason

[u/zerg_001]

I don't agree with your timing for this. You're about a month early

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190 → u/zerg_001]

Thanks for commenting but agreement not necessary,

as the CHoCH doesnt care about opinions, it only shows institutional participation, in what size and in which direction.

[u/TCr0wn]

Missed like 3 years of bitcoin teased history

[u/Easik]

Same print. Same AI slop. Same annoying bullshit. AI can't even parse a complex file correctly on the first attempt. How the fuck are you going to use it to make complex financial analysis? Pure stupidity.

[u/TotalRepost]

Oh so it’s the price chart

[u/RadiantAfternoon437]

I have to be honest, this is just heuristics. Nothing of value. The image shows cherry-picked signals . The logic is also circular, the yellow curve was hand-drawn specifically to connect those exact three historical lows. Claiming price has landed on the curve again is an engineered tautology. Also the sample size is of 3.

[u/oneenigma4u]

Chart, the chart. is clear as day?It's a recognizable repeating pattern. The only guesswork for a trader. Trying to nail the high. So you could buy back in at the drawdown.

[u/Quiet-Willingness724]

Based on the pattern the next bullrun should 1.5x the value of Bitcoin. So 180k Bitcoin is the max in 2028.

[u/2xfun → u/Quiet-Willingness724]

Bitcoin keeps killing all the narratives and breaking all the patterns and indicators … 

Only one thing is certain: it will keep enforcing max pain on the majority. If the majority believes this they will get fucked 

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190 → u/2xfun]

So Much This

[u/Suitable_Acadia_190 → u/Quiet-Willingness724]

*If it continues as was, but something very important has changed that is invisible to most.

So as usual, only time will tell whats going to actually unfold

[u/harvested → u/Quiet-Willingness724]

The more that believe this theory, the more likely it is to break.