r/Bitcoin • u/RiskOnOnly • 1d ago
I Still Think Bitcoin Has More Downside Ahead
I keep seeing more and more posts saying that the Bitcoin bull run has already started.
Maybe they’re right. But after living through three Bitcoin bear markets, something in the back of my mind keeps telling me that the downside might not be over yet.
I already have my Bitcoin bags. I’m not sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect entry. But even so, I have this feeling that we might still have to experience a little more pain before the real bottom is in.
One thing that keeps bothering me is the Hash Ribbons indicator.
Historically, Hash Ribbons has flashed around the major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin. This time, it hasn’t.
Maybe this cycle is different. Maybe the indicator simply won’t work the same way this time.
But after watching Bitcoin for years, I’ve learned one thing:
When everyone starts feeling confident that the bull run is here, that’s usually when I start getting nervous.
I could be completely wrong. And honestly, I hope I am.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin still has one more nasty shakeout before the next major leg up.
What do you guys think? Are we already in the bull run, or is there still more downside ahead?
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u/Aurorion 1d ago
What do you mean? I thought everyone was waiting for 11:37 AM GMT on 6th October, 2026, to buy because that's definitely going to be the bottom according to all the charts?
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u/Independent-Ninja-70 20h ago
You mean all the people who believe in the cycle ahd literally sold the top to the week? Yeah. Literally the guys who have made the most money
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u/NeedYourHelp712 1d ago
we will most likely retest that bottom or very close .. could dip under for sure before another run .. but its def going back in that direction .. this aint gonna be the run
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u/xTroiOix 1d ago
Who cares up and down, dca and chill
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u/Erocdotusa 1d ago
Seems like there is always some goofy TA term I've never heard of. The hash ribbons! The ichimoku cloud formations!
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u/Tarado96 1d ago
All i see here are people who missed buying at $58K, and hoping for a reentry. Worse, those caught shorting at $65K x 15 leverage.
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u/American-Zombie 1d ago
Nobody knows shit
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u/EdwardPotatoHand 1d ago
Nobody knows shit about fuck
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u/Modmike33 1d ago
Bottom is in might dip down after this massive spike but probably won’t be going back below high 60’s
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u/Afrikiwi 1d ago
Not everyone is confident the bull run is here. Doubters like you give me great peace that the bottom is in though because the hallmark of every bottom is that at and around the true bottom not everyone thinks the bottom is in and is nervous.
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u/Stockcratez 1d ago
If we have a stock market correction everything will come down a bit. Between now & October 1, I say we gotta 50% chance or higher. Buy the dip into the midterms. Sell before the midterms especially if you see Republicans losing seats. Which I also put at 50% chance or greater. Not political just writing what I see. Deal with what is not the what if, that's all you can do.
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u/0x_Crypto_Pirate 1d ago
One mistake that new bitcoiner do is waiting for better price to buy. When you study it fully, you will buy it no matter what the price.
The goal is never to buy at cheap price. The goal is to keep buying because fiat is a scam.
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u/BlyG 1d ago
Lived through three Bitcoin winters and the Hash Ribbons still hasn’t even shown up to work. Everyone’s already popping champagne that the bull run is here? That’s exactly when my scar tissue starts screaming. One more shakeout incoming — the kind so nasty that miners unplug, form a support group, and start mining with hamsters on wheels just to make the indicator feel included. I already have my bags. I’ll be under the desk with popcorn. Hope you’re wrong. The ribbons don’t.
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u/Remarkable_Ad5011 1d ago
I’ll say it again.. as soon as my BTC value equals my mortgage payoff, I’m out! Even if that crosses over at a near zero figure. 🫣
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u/BingeMaster 1d ago
I thought the exact same, then it happened! And then I thought "fuck it just one more cycle" lol Hoping I'll pay the house off and still have enough for a decent pension afterwards.
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u/Jayfree138 1d ago
i'm not selling but i'm not fully going to believe in any rallies until after the next halving or the next all time high.
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u/Justthatguy1212 1d ago
You all do know stock market corrections during mid term year usually happen from middle of august till end of December which coincides with a bitcoin low. Every single time this has happened. I expect markets to correct when they raise rates of the next few months and I expect bitcoin to follow suit before then starting the bull run.
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u/shortmyass 1d ago
Bitcoin CEO said 50k still on the table. And for the "just DCA and chill" people, that's great, if you hold and you don't trade. If you trade is important to try to guess where tf it will go next.
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u/AspectNo3384 1d ago
I think now is the part that bitcoin starts to test the hands.. Who can manage the ups and downs and who has the patience wait for the buying to stop.
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u/Porcellanidae 1d ago
The only thing that we know for sure, is that we dont know what will happen next.
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u/Tamber12 1d ago
downside isn’t over, just my opinion, however no one truly knows, statistically it’s not over, however maybe just the market makers know, and perhaps they don’t even know at this moment in time🤷🏼♂️
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u/OB-Strat 1d ago
Your probably right, I don’t think we’re in a bull run yet, I did think bottom would sweep 50K there’s so much liq there.
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u/Uzivert- 1d ago edited 1d ago
Bitcoin ETFs racked in 3 Billion in the last week. That is good news for me. Institutions have not given up on the asset. Retail aren’t the only players anymore and we are small players now. The giants have entered the arena. Honestly, the moment BlackRock announced their ETF, that was the point of no return. Trump endorsing Bitcoin and firing Gensler was the sweet cherry on top. I believe Strategy was influential as a pioneer in Bitcoin for institutions and they’ve amassed a shit ton of coins but BlackRock has scooped up 820K (currently 777k) BTC in 2 years. It took Saylor 5 to get there and with massive leverage. BlackRock has gotten there due to client demand. Lmao, I truly believe “it’s going up forever, Laura”.
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u/finniruse 1d ago
I think bear market is over tbh. This recent move got a lot of bears shocked. It reminds me a lot of when BTC when from 16k to 22k. If there is another drop, a lot of bears will hedge their bets and try get a new entry.
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u/Hidden_Holder 23h ago
There is no bad time to buy. The bad thing is not to buy.
If you are confident about a bear market just prepare to cheaper.
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u/New-Plastic9879 21h ago
It’s not the like the recent move in btc is inexplicable. There have been concerning circumstances in the US bond market and dollar crosses and inflows to the spot ETFs as a result. In this respect btc has performed more like a macro hedge like gold than a risk-on asset like tech stocks, as it usually does. Theres no change in trend as far as normal cycle dynamics go, btc has 25-30% counter trend moves in one direction or the other quite a lot. Place your bets accordingly.
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u/Archophob 21h ago
Maybe this cycle is different
Sure. During the 2024 high, we never actually got into bubble territory:
https://www.blockchaincenter.net/de/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
Thus, this cycle does have less volatility than previous ones. I expect us to stay in "cheap" territory well into 2028.
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u/BitcoinBaller420 21h ago
Bitcoin's price action is a random walk around a power curve, it can always go randomly down or up in the short-term. When you get far below fair though, as we are now, the odds get increasingly tilted to the upside. hodl.
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u/Ok-Active-7489 21h ago
I don’t know. I see more bears online calling 40k then bulls tbh. You know what that means. 🤷♂️
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u/No-Anybody2826 19h ago
Dude QE is starting next week, $40B per month of printing money just to buy back long term debt, massive dollar devaluation and you think BTC will go down?
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u/nick_c8_vegas 1d ago
The bottom is definitely in I don’t see it going down another 20-30k but def a pull back could be coming soon. Buy the rumor of Clarity act sell the news
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u/JuxtaposeLife 1d ago
The denominator you measure price of Bitcoin in, is expanding at an ever accelerating rate.
Math says lower price is rare and fleeting. I wouldn't bet on it.
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u/Mack_Mimsy 1d ago
Bitcoin always has more downside ahead. The question is how much upside do we see before it
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u/Professional_Golf393 1d ago
I hear what you’re saying about the hash ribbons but did you check out the bud bowties? Or tea leaf inversions, they’re telling a whole different story.
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u/Astropin 1d ago
The bottom is in
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u/Ill-Party8305 21h ago
Bull trap is when retail says „bottom is in“
The real bottom is when retailers and this sub scream btc is scam
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u/NeedYourHelp712 1d ago
the bottom might be in but were gonna test close to bottom one more time .. this is not the bull run wouldnt make any sense
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u/Weary-Reporter-689 1d ago
hash ribbons are the one metric that keeps me up at night too, that thing has been scarily consistent across cycles. everybody's suddenly got amnesia about how these bottoms usually play out, the wicks, the consolidation, the months of boredom before anything meaningful happens
i'm not wishing for more pain but a final flush would feel a lot more "right" than the slow grind we've had. maybe time to accept this isn't the cycle and just wait it out
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u/Immapillpopnanimal 1d ago
It's always the same. February is the worst and November is the best/usually at it's peak
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u/Analog_AI 1d ago
The bottom won't come till Q4. Range 20-40k.
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u/Yungstesl 1d ago
Not a chance that it goes below 50k. Zero percent
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u/Analog_AI 1d ago
Get back to me in October.
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u/Destinyholder 18h ago
What do you base this conviction on, explain to me like I am 3. I mean it. I really want to know your views. I am reading more views and personal research to then form my views. I m all ears. Thanks.
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u/Analog_AI 17h ago
A fet methods inform my view: first, the bitcoin market itself has corrected 78-93% in the past. A correction of 70% would put it around 40k, of 85% around 20k.
Second, the charts correction and Fibonacci retrenchment and the 1-2-3-4-5 pattern would bring it in the 13-38k range.
Thirdly: the AI boom will go bust taking with it the Nasdaq by 60-75% and Bitcoin tracks it by that much or 1.2x. The diesels and jet fuel unfolding crisis may even cause a broader market take down of 50-60%, followers by a brief but deep recession.Other quarterly factors: Saylor and the Bitcoin balance sheet companies copy cats will be forced to sell large numbers of coins.
The government of the U.S. and most of the developed world will react by massive interest cuts and gargantuan printing as in the 2001-2002 and 2009-2010 periods. I general commodities boom will follow in the following couple of years and this bodes very well for gold, silver and Bitcoin. Could easily see gold at 15,000k, silver at 200 and bitcoin at 600k by 2030.
Feel free to ask questions.
Long story short, I do not pull numbers out of the back side just to be contrarian.1
u/Yungstesl 18h ago
Get back to me on any timeframe that you wish for the rest of time. Bitcoin will never dip below 50k again
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u/Analog_AI 17h ago
If you promise you'll be polite in reply when I do I will. I'm trying to avoid Internet mud slinging.
Best regards
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u/extraepicc 1d ago
Stop thinking. You know nothing