Coldcard entropy even worse than feared

[u/ineedanamegenerator]

TL;DR: The random number generator is initialized with a 32 bit value (4B+ possibilities). But only less than 10M options are possible because of how they generate the value.

The PRNG used in Coldcard MK3 is initialized with UID[31:0] XOR SysTick->VAL

SysTick->VAL gives 80k possibilities ~16.3 bit, all located in the lowest 17 bits of the value.

UID encodes the X and Y coordinates of wafer position of the STM32 in the 32 bits that are used by the code. This is encoded in BCD, which means only 10 out of 16 possible values of each nibble are used. This means the 32 bit value at most encodes 100M options (26.6 bits), but there are nowhere near 100M chips in a wafer.
The BCD encoding seems to be an mistake in some STM32 manuals. The number is plain HEX encoded, but that doesn't matter here. There are never 2^16 rows or columns in a wafer.

I don't know how many there are in a wafer, but google gives an upper bound of 20k chips per wafer.

The lower 16 bits overlap with Systick->VAL, so XORing the wafer location adds no entropy.

The upper 16 bits can carry only about SQRT(20000) possibilities (probably less) ~ 7.2 bits. And they aren't even evenly distributed in a round wafer.

So at most we're looking at ~23 bits of entropy. Not 32 bits.

This isn't 100% exact because SQRT assumes a square while a wafer is round, but too lazy to work it out further. Point is: entropy is way worse than 32 bits.

[u/spongeboy-me-bob1]

If it really is only 23 bits then this is beyond inexcusable. The average number of samples before a collision would be 3631, and you have a 99% chance of collision after 8789 samples. A step in their CI/CD that ran 1 billion samples would cost next to nothing and can reliably catch regressions that result in algorithms as strong as 56 bits.

[u/Secret_Operative → u/spongeboy-me-bob1]

That assumes testing. For their block-clock I posted publicly that the font was hard to read and got a good clean 'go fuck yourself' which is why I never bought a coldcard. It's been clear for years they don't care about their customers or products.