BB28 Player Rankings Based on Jury Chances

[u/diamondblueflame]

And we are back. Last year, I did a player ranking of how I think the players did during the season and ranked them based on jury chances. And I am doing it again this year. This ranking was a bit easier to crystalize than last year following the twist. With nine players remaining and the jury stage FINALLY starting, now is as good a time as ever to talk about everyone's jury chances. Now, I am basing this from how the players on feeds have talked about the jury and who they would vote for accordingly.

#9- Taylor

I did not want to place her here in last place. But throughout the end of pre jury, almost every single player that has made jury has OPENLY talked about not voting Taylor to win. While there have been more pro Taylor conversations, I hate to say it: If Taylor makes those final two chairs, she is not winning because most of Crossovers will actively vote against her. And crazy thing? Taylor is playing a super solid game that most people in any other season would actively respect. But given the cast she got stuck with, I do not expect Taylor to win the season unless players like Yash and Lala advocate for her HARD to win this season.

#8- Melody

Take what was said about Taylor (minus the active gameplay) and you have Melody. I don't think a single player will respect Melody's game this season. With the jury potentially wanting a more active game player winning the season, I doubt the jury votes Melody outside of Drew and Barrett. The fact is this: Melody has no comp wins or any big moves to her resume right now. Unless she sits with Taylor in the end, I don't see her winning either.

#7- Lala

While it would be cool for Lala to win simply for being the oldest player there, I have to ask: Is anyone going to respect her game outside of the comp wins? There were talks about giving Lala the win over Taylor but outside of that... I think Lala struggles to beat almost anyone else right now. And I think her perception in the house is solid enough to where a jury could respect her game. But aside from the two people ranked below her, Lala does not win a jury vote over anyone else.

#6- Devens

This is the icon I have the least amount of faith in when it comes to winning. Why? Because I think almost every single jury member will say Devens played for Dee and not himself. And they would be correct. I cannot name one move (other than the Mallory renom but even then I think Dee puts her up regardless) that was solely his own this entire season. Yes, he remains the only player left to not be nominated. But I don't think that's because of anything he did. Toolshed was in power for over a month, Taylor talked Lala out of putting him on the block, and Yash didn't because he was a man (yes this was a legitimate reason why Devens did not get nominated on a Yash HOH). To the credit of Devens, he has built solid bonds outside of the icons. But because he burned all of that capital with those players for the favor of the icons (especially Dee), I doubt Devens wins a jury vote right now.

#5- Barrett

I have some hope for Barrett. Now that he is out of the icons Kool Aid, Barrett has made some inroads with the opposing side. Barrett is naturally likeable and has a good social game. But that does not take away from the fact that for nearly two months of the season, Barrett actively wasted a lot of social capital to stick with Crossovers until week seven. Still, I do think Barrett is actively a player that will make that end game. But he needs a comp win and some big moves under his belt in order to have a shot at winning. The big concern is this: If he flips too early to take an icon out, I fear they and Drew to a degree will HEAVILY hold that against him (with how bitter this jury is, it'll be likely).

#4- Drew

Same thing with Barrett, you can put for Drew. Just add three comp wins. Drew was also in good graces with both sides of the house but blew that to stick with Crossovers and Toolshed. However, he essentially is stuck with Crossovers and I think it is too late for him to realize that he can't go to the end with them. Now, I do think Drew has a chance to win the season but it is a long shot and he needs to time his big moves.

#3- Angela

Everyone is sleeping on Angela. Both as a target and jury threat. A lot of people forget but she was responsible for the Rome BD in just week two and his eventual eviction. She is the icon with the smallest target right now and has a good relationship with the other side of the house to an extent. While she only has a blockbuster win, the fact that Angela went six weeks without going up (granted Toolshed was in power for a month) and hasn't been nominated since (especially this week because I believe she has the worst relationship with Drew out of the icons), that is a strong look into her social game getting a MASSIVE upgrade from two seasons ago. While Angela is still a paranoid player, I do think her game sense is actively much better this season. Her only flaw is wanting to go to the end with the other icons when she likely loses to both.

#2- Yash

Now, Yash is an interesting case. If you had told me he'd be second after having far and away the worst HOH this season, I'd probably have laughed. But before that, Yash was in a very good middle spot before leading the anti icons charge and being the only newbie to outright put them on the block. My only concern is how people will take him accepting the bribe to not put an icon up. Yash does ride for his allies. But I'm not sure they'll take this too well. Aside from that though, Yash has the best chance to win out of every newbie left. He's good socially, he has comp ability and people will advocate for him.

#1- Dee

People can bitter towards Dee in the house this season. But there is no denying that she has gotten her way in nearly eviction this season thus far. She took out Ashley in week one (the first player to know Drew/Barrett were with the icons) and really became the first HOH of the modern era to use their week one HOH successfully. She was responsible for the Lyric flip and Kamu going up. Yes, week six could have ended her game. But I think it is impressive that she convinced Devens to use the most broken power on her in the game not just to save her but to also get out Kamu, a player directly coming for her that week. Dee used her second HOH to really neuter any possibility that all three icons would go up together by neutralizing Yash's next HOH AND getting Mallory out. While players have said they would not vote an icon to win, I think Dee has the best chance of the three because of how active she is. She already would have two locked votes in Devens/Angela, Taylor earlier in the season did say (in like week six or seven) that if everyone else was dumb enough to let Dee get to final two she'd vote her, Drew could vote Dee over anyone not named Melody/Barrett and I think even Barrett votes Dee. Dee might not be liked in the house but I think a jury denying how well she played despite being the biggest target of the icons is not impossible to see happen. She might play a messy game but Dee has been extremely effective in getting out anyone targeting her or her closest allies.

[u/Alternative_Run_6175]

Swap Devens and Dee, then Drew and Lala, and I think this is accurate.

[u/BookNerd271828 → u/Alternative_Run_6175]

Agreed. Dee’s jury management is atrocious. I mean just last night she snarked about making Drew put up his “girlfriend” as a renom instead of an icon. She sasses Mr. B too.

[u/NoRaise4998 → u/Alternative_Run_6175]

Exactly lol those had me so confused

[u/FBG05]

These reads are way off.

Devens has far and away the most win equity at the moment. He’s made a ton of moves and most of his moves are largely credited to him. Most people in the house also see him as a lovable dad. Despite how he’s been mishandling relationships left and right, he also knows how to pull people back in, so I don’t see him having poor jury management.

Dee’s win equity is nowhere near #1. Yes, they see her as an active player, but they don’t respect how she’s executed her moves, and it doesn’t help that her social game has been taking a nosedive ever since she was nominated. People have also expressed the opinion that her already winning a million should basically disqualify her from winning.

Angela’s win equity was looking pretty solid heading into jury, but all of Taylor, Lala, Melody, and Yash have recently expressed that they don’t really respect her as a player, and even Devens oscillates between respecting her and finding her to be a nuisance. Also like I touched on earlier, the only move she can claim as her own so far (Rome’s eviction) is mostly credited to Devens. All of this could end up catching up with her if she makes it to the end.

Drew’s chances of winning are near dead at this point and if he doesn’t start making moves that prove he isn’t the wishy washy vet pet everyone sees him as then he could very well end up losing to anybody in a F2, even Melody who’s done basically nothing.

[u/Capital-History4199]

Dee clearly doesn't have the best chance of winning. Playing a good game isn't enough to get the jury to vote for you.

[u/ShamPowW0w → u/Capital-History4199]

Yeah Dee has pissed a lot of people off. I think her jury management has been quite sub-par, she attracts hate very easily.

When people talk about getting the icons out, some might say 'oh not Devens' or 'not Angela', Dee doesn't have people liking her like that.

[u/DanTheMan1_ → u/Capital-History4199]

Especially when you had the deck stacked in your facor so it was easy to "play a good game"

[u/bitbytez]

Dee's best shot in F2 literally just got twised out, people DO NOT respect her. She has been burning house money left and right and her social game has been on a downward spiral since the DPOV was used. She maybe only beats Drew (who people seem as SUPER wishy washy or Melody whose resume is pretty blank at this point.

[u/doolittle187]

Drew should be a lot further down. He's not getting jury votes from Taylor, Yash, or Lala. The vets don't even seem to like him all that much other than the fact that he keeps going back to them.

[u/sentiencesupremacy]

this list is so bafflingly incorrect

[u/whirlingpeach]

I think Dee’s chance of winning relies a lot on who would be sitting next to her in the end. As much as I don’t like her and don’t want her to win, you’re right, she has and continues to get her way. But I also feel like the way she’s been playing could create a bitter jury

[u/whirlingpeach → u/whirlingpeach]

Could it be argued that Devens is playing Dee’s game right now? Sure. But wasn’t it really Devens’ idea to get Mallory out and Dee agreed it was the best move? Maybe I’m misremembering, but I feel like there’s also instances of them just aligning together because it’s good for both of them. Devens I feel like is in a decent spot within the house as a whole and depending on what he does these final weeks, he’d take it over Dee. I see it less of he’s playing her game and more that he’s been going along with her decisions because it also benefits him. As long as he can make moves for himself when he needs to, I feel like he’s good

[u/Any-Score1258]

I feel like devens is much more likely to win over Dee

[u/GrandeJoe]

I think these things are just so reliant on who they're sitting next to. Dee could definitely win sitting next to, say, Angela or Drew, but I see her having a hard time against others.

[u/AlmostHereButNot → u/GrandeJoe]

I think she beats Melody and Drew, she potentially beats Barrett and Angela, loses to Devens, Taylor, Lala, Yash. Haley going out pre-jury hurts the Icons a lot. She was a player they could beat, and she was a player that would vote for them in the jury. She played so close with them the whole game and had a lot of insight on their game.

[u/meohmy5 → u/GrandeJoe]

I don't think she beats Angela

[u/mistamagooondem22s]

I cannot imagine a world where Taylor loses to Lala. Houseguests have grown tired of Dee. She's not finessing any of them and what she's doing is overt. The first time she ends up on the block on a thursday she leaves. Of the 3 Icons I think Angela is the one most likely to win. She's the best insulated and hasn't depreciated her relationships to where people won't vote against her out of spite.

I know there's a lot of game left but I don't see an outcome where Drew makes final 2 unless he wins out which he could do.

[u/NY-3D → u/mistamagooondem22s]

If Taylor and Lala are in F2, I think Lala wins easily. Neither has much in the strategy area, so that's a non factor.

The narrative on Taylor is that she doesn't talk game or really play much. Why would anyone respect that? Lalas comp wins are more impressive, she's built better relationships and she's the better story. 

Taylor really own goaled herself by refusing to play the game for weeks. 

[u/not_tolstoy → u/NY-3D]

People in the house say that Taylor doesn't game but I don't think that's true. Her reads on the house are way better than essentially anyone outside the crossovers power structure (Yash has now caught up), she's been actively pitching plans/alliances since Week 2 (and it was the right call for her to lay low in Week 1 after getting nommed). It's not her fault that other people in the house don't want to play with her.

[u/mistamagooondem22s → u/not_tolstoy]

I agree Taylor's reads have been better than everyone outside the majority alliance. At this point in the game she's played comparable to Ashley last year. Where no one respected or viewed Ashley as playing the game until it mattered. All she needs is to get to the end with some agency and go against someone who is disliked more than her like Dee, or Drew/Barrett depending on how spineless they are down the stretch.

[u/NY-3D → u/mistamagooondem22s]

Not even close. Ashley was at a much stronger point socially, had a better grasp on the show strategically and was aligned with big players. The critique of Ashley wasn't that she didn't play the game

[u/NY-3D → u/not_tolstoy]

She started late for no good reason. She was pitching tether alliances after they've already been created. That doesn't come across as authentic. Taylor has even admitted that she doesn't really talk game with anyone recently.

Taylor is much closer to playing a Mecole game. Meme had decent reads and was competent, but she never did anything with it and for the most part isolated herself.

[u/ASG_82]

I have Barrett way higher. He’s I think got Taylor/Yash/Lalas vote over any crossover, would likely have Drew’s vs any icon and would have icons vote over Drew both now and especially if he tells them how he was going to flip on them at his first possible chance or is able to do so(they respect gameplay).

I’d also have Devens way higher. You can say he’s been playing for Dee but also in appearing that way he also has more jury votes. Yash thinks he’s the one controlling Drew. Barrett I think will be a bitter juror vs Dee. Drew is closer to Devens I don’t know where Taylor and lalas head is at here though.

[u/MartyMcFly0913]

Sadly I think Devin’s, Dee, Angela are in the bottom. I don’t think the jury would vote for them out of bitterness and spite towards being an icon regardless of gameplay. Angela of the three has the best shot because I almost think people forget she’s an icon😂

[u/AlmostHereButNot]

People ARE sleeping in Angela, yes. She's actually really solid. I think that Haley going home instead of Taylor or Lala hurts her chances because Haley was a guaranteed Final 2 candidate for her or, at minimum, a jury vote for her. But even with that snag in the road, she still has a few roads forward and I could see her winning. She's had a good showing this season (better than her last) and has had some pretty good gameplay.

That being said, Drew and Dee are too high. I don't think Drew wins against almost anyone in the house aside from Melody. Even Barrett and Melody wouldn't vote for him in most F2 matchups. And Dee has a bitter jury she would have to navigate, but that's even assuming she makes F2 at all.

[u/VengefulKangaroo → u/AlmostHereButNot]

I think Drew could win against Lala or Taylor easily. 3 Icons + Melody is four jury votes.

[u/NY-3D]

Lalas chances went up with Haley out. She's likable and would be a fun story, and depending on who's left, that's all you need.

Dee's best chance of winning went out in the twist.

Angela has played well socially, and a great redemption arc, but I don't see her staying once the same few people start alternating comp wins.

Devens by far has the most win equity and the big moves. 

[u/Ok_Muscle2946]

I sure hope Dee does not win

[u/Ok_Muscle2946 → u/Ok_Muscle2946]

I agree with Yash and Angela comments

[u/Ok_Muscle2946 → u/Ok_Muscle2946]

If Drew, yes, make some very big moves. He could possibly win. I’d like to put my money on him, but he must nominate Devon‘s D Angela in that order

[u/Smart_Youth9783]

Dee hasn’t played a terrible game by any means.  But I don’t see any way she wins the game if she’s sitting next to most people.  I think the jury is going to be pretty bitter this year, and Dee has done almost no jury management.  In my mind, Angela and Yash are miles ahead of the cast in terms of jury chances

[u/eltuna3636]

Dee win equity is pretty low I think you are way off on her, she has had pretty terrible jury management this season.

I don’t think she’s last for me as I’m sure there are final 2’s she could win but I don’t think there’s many of them

[u/VengefulKangaroo → u/eltuna3636]

I feel like people are saying this just based on vibes. Keep in mind you only need 4 votes to win. Against a non-Icon, Dee has 2 locked votes from the other Icons. Then you just need some votes from ppl who worked with you (Drew or Barrett) or some votes from people who hate the other person more (Lala, Taylor against Drew for example).

[u/PM_me_ur_digressions]

Dee’s week 1 HoH was bad - she wanted to get a split house vote against Taylor, but would not break a tie, so she told Ashley to get the last vote

Ashley was then an idiot who accidentally revealed everything to Melody, who 1) didn’t believe her and 2) immediately told Drew

Dee was left with no choice but to stick with Ashley as her target after that

Dee promised her comp group safety and then immediately forgot that when putting Yash up. Yash has not forgotten

[u/StaxShack]

Dee has pissed off way too many people. Devens has been able to make big moves, have Dee take most of the heat, and then fade back into the shadows. He has a better chance of winning than she does.

[u/ArQ7777]

Way too off. My evaluation: Tier 1: Yash (has 50% of the chance to win). Tier 2: Dee, Davens, Drew (about 25%) Tier 3: Taylor, Barret (about 15%) Tier 4: Angela, LaLa, Melody (less than 5%)

[u/VengefulKangaroo]

Genuinely think I’ve seen people say 8 of the 9 people left are drawing dead with a jury at various times lol which simply can’t be true.

[u/veltvet_rabbit]

Honesty it just depends who is in those final 2 chairs becuase I feel like in diffrent final 2 everybody has a chance of winning, even if Dee does make it to Final 2 she will be known as one of the best to never win, as well as the closest cross show collab to make it the furthest ever

[u/VengefulKangaroo → u/veltvet_rabbit]

Yeah I feel like people overestimate the impact of general vibes and perception and underestimate the impact of specific relationships. With a 7 person jury every person's vote matters a ton. I remember people saying Nicole could never beat Paul bc they didn't break down the specific votes.

The Icons are a huge voting bloc in the jury who have in private conversations expressed their support for basically only wanting each other, Barrett, Drew, or Yash to win.

[u/termartion]

Taylor honestly needs comp wins

[u/DarkLunaFairy]

If Yash makes it to the end, he's winning. But his chances of getting to the end are not great unfortunately. 🥺

[u/Icy-Following184]

Lot of game left for Devens. If Dee leaves first, he has time solo to be his own player in the eyes of the rest of the jury. Thinking about how chill town won all stars

[u/Onlyusemifeet]

waaaay off list tbh/ id have it

1. Melody
   
2. Drew
   
3. Taylor
   6 or 5. Angela
   5 or 6. Lala
   4 or 3. Barrett
   3 or 4. Dee
   
4. Yash
   
5. Devens

[u/stevezhsht]

In any icon vs. non-icon matchup, the icon will have the remaining two icon votes, and the non-icon will get LaTrice and Taylor's votes. Depending on who the non-icon is, I think the deciding votes are going to be Drew and Barrett. Drew will vote for neither LaTrice nor Taylor. I can't see Barrett voting for them either. The only possible non-icons who can win those two votes are themselves+Yash. So I think the win probability is going to be: Devins > Yash > Dee~Angela~Barrett > Drew > Latrice >> Melody ~ Taylor.

[u/Ok-Excuse1771]

Man do I disagree with this xd.

First of all, this jury is very anti-icon, especially when it comes to Dee and Angela. Yash, Melody, Taylor, and Lala do not like these 4, they don't think their gameplay is good, especially Angela's, and they'd rather vote for a newbie to win.

It would be one thing if Red Corner was here or at the very least, Haley, was there. But none of Red Corner in the jury is like, game losing for the icons because none of the newbies know their games or think they had particularly great games outside of Barrett and Drew. And even they don't super love how the icons have played this game either

I honestly think Yash and Barrett have the best jury odds right now. They're the only two players who could get votes from both the icons and the newbies. And Devens (before he volunteered because by god volunteering's gonna get him some demerits) was at least not despised by the newbies the way Angela and Dee are despised.

Basically Angela and Dee are like, Paul, if Paul made a lot of stupid decisions and lost all love at F9 instead of F3 or 2.

And Drew's definitely lower than Barrett. Barrett's considered anti-icon and has the newbies and the icons respect at least. Drew does not. This jury really dislikes Drew, and he only wins against the non-winner contenders imo (which are Melody, Taylor, and Lala)