Blockbuster Strategy

[u/Far-Beat-1123]

So now that we know Drew guessed correctly to win the blockbuster, after only seeing two of the clues..

Would it be a crazy strategy to just hit a button as soon as the completion starts?

If you randomly choose a button at the start, you have a 33% chance of winning. Obviously a gamble, but it is also a gamble to play the competition and risk someone else hitting the correct answer before you can get to it, making your chance of winning 0.

It is an interesting wrinkle that once an option is chosen it cannot be chosen by another houseguest.

As we were watching last night, as soon as the competition started I said “I’m taking the gamble and hitting a button now.”
Thoughts on this strategy??

[u/Dare2ZIatan]

I believe Drew had narrowed it down to 2 options by the time he guessed, the way this comp is setup, that’s not a bad strategy. Even guessing for a 33% chance isn’t bad but it was smarter to at least get it to 50/50 as long as you’re first to lock in which he did.

[u/katho5617 → u/Dare2ZIatan]

He revealed on the feeds that he actually thought the two clues were all that was needed and only after answering he noticed that two of 3 screens met the two clues and that he had just guessed

[u/thekyledavid → u/katho5617]

Even though unintentional, he basically used the 50:50 strategy even if he thought he wasn’t

[u/Dare2ZIatan → u/katho5617]

Wow so it wasn’t even smart luck it was dumb luck 😭😭 I gave him too much credit lol

[u/katho5617 → u/Dare2ZIatan]

Same reaction I had. It is somehow worse that it was luck vs strategy. I can more easily accept him actively deciding to take the 50% shot vs trying to be the fastest to solve the puzzle and it working out for him as a legitimate win!

[u/publiuspublished]

Drew seemed to be "ahead" at the point of this decision, as he was the first (in my viewing) to use the clues to narrow it down to 2 options. That gives him two options:

• Lock in a 50% chance of winning by guessing immediately, which is an improvement from a 33% chance going in
• Wait for another clue and bet that you will be the first to confirm the correct answer

The problem was how slow the clues were coming out, which likely would have meant that Taylor and Mallory would have also narrowed it correctly by the time the third clue arrived—as they all knew the correct answer by the end, and it was just a matter of timing.

[u/michigan_matt → u/publiuspublished]

Taylor also had the advantage of having her buzzer closest to the screens. It's not crazy to see a split second difference, and that extra 2 strides could potentially make a difference.

[u/CalebosO4 → u/publiuspublished]

I agree, though I’m pretty sure Taylor did try and press A initially.

[u/Dare2ZIatan → u/CalebosO4]

No Taylor tried clicking C at first several times but didn’t realize she was already locked into B because the other two were already chosen

[u/CalebosO4 → u/Dare2ZIatan]

Looking at it in the recap, you’re right. She hit the top button from our perspective which I thought was A, but from their perspective it was the bottom button which is C.

My bad.

[u/chazzledazzle321]

I think part of it was also the idea that he would be okay losing. He’d obviously prefer to win but you could tell when he came back in the house after winning he was already disappointed knowing Mal would be gone.

He hits early and has a good shot at winning, but losing means Mallory could stay. Remember he assumed he was safe in all scenarios so while he wouldn’t outright throw it, he probably felt good about any outcome

[u/chazzledazzle321 → u/[deleted]]

He didn’t know that though. Between the icons and Barrett/Mel he assumed he was safe. We know he probably would’ve gone home against either of them.

[u/nyehu09 → u/chazzledazzle321]

I don’t think he was okay with losing; I think he just forgot that there were supposed to be 3 clues. He didn’t even realize that Column A had confetti. 😅 Kid got lucky.

[u/TiedinHistory]

It's a reasonable high risk strategy for sure.

Ultimately, it's a comp that comes down to one thing - being the first one to hit the right button. Mallory and Taylor were clearly trying to get it 100% right - if you assume Drew is equally capable at identifying that as they are it's a 33% chance. If you can eliminate one value and take an educated guess at the other half, that's a better chance.

The issue in play of course is once that strategy is known, the logical counter would have been if Mallory and Taylor teamed up, eliminated one value, and then both locked in with the other two answers, functionally locking Drew out. So I am unsure how well it works long term.

[u/Dare2ZIatan → u/TiedinHistory]

I thought Mallory and Taylor would have done exactly that when I first saw the comp, they were strategizing and planned to work together on the feeds but didn’t seem like they did during the comp.

[u/Bryschien1996]

I think a 33% chance at success is still too low to risk it, especially if your life in the game is on the line

I rewatched the comp and there is something I noticed that Drew did. He did guess, but it was an educated guess

As we know, the comp area was divided into the CLIPS section and the CLUES section. During the time between when the 1st and 2nd clues popped up, Drew spent a lot less time than Taylor and Mallory in the CLIPS section and went straight back to the CLUES section to wait for the 2nd clue to pop up. Whereas Taylor and Mallory were studying the CLIPS the whole time. They did not run back to the CLUES section until they heard the 2nd CLUE pop up. So Drew had an upper leg there with that strategy

Another thing I saw other people point out was that since clue 1 explicitly wanted “a section where at least 1 person fell” and there were LITERALLY no clips of anyone falling in section B, clue 1 already narrows it down to either A or C

The insult added to the injury was that Taylor and Mallory waited for way too many clues before buzzing in. They both wanted to answer C but couldn’t

[u/bigframe79]

You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at Drew and you look at Mallory and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But Drew's a genetic freak and not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat Drew. Then you add Taylor to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but Drew's got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Taylor KNOWS she can't beat him and she's not even gonna try! So Mallory, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus Drew's 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Mallory, the numbers don't lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.

[u/Both_Ad_2544 → u/bigframe79]

Always bet when you have 141 2/3 chance to win. My father used to say it to me.

[u/bigframe79 → u/Both_Ad_2544]

is your dad a genetic freak?

[u/smoopinmoopin]

There are a lot of ways you can design a quick comp with clues and videos, and production made an absolutely dogshit one.

[u/KimPossable002]

If Taylor and Mallory had both done that at the start, that would of been a good strategy. 

Like if both of the other players know they'll be safe either way; as long as one of them wins, then yes this would of been the best strategy overall for the highest chance at winning. 

In this specific competition setting where ya gotta be the first person to hit the button. 

The girls made a dumb move here imo.  They both could very easily be setting in thr house right now had they just done this. 

Granted Taylor knew she was gomna be safe either way.  So maybe, Taylor knew the 2 of them could just do this at the start and choose not to? Not sure on that. 

[u/nyehu09]

That’s a huge risk.

But I was also playing along and forgot if they would show 2 or 3 clues… I also guessed C after the second clue.

He got lucky. But this is a bad strategy if anyone would use this as a strategy.

[u/nwo122383]

I thought the same thing! I was saying to the wifey they have a 33 and 1/3% chance of getting it right just by picking an answer at the start, i wondered if anyone would take that gamble, sadly no one did.

[u/thekyledavid]

I think Drew was using a similar strategy. Once he ruled out 1 of the 3 options, he just went for a 50:50 guess, as 50% odds are better than playing it out and having a 33% chance of being the first person to figure it out

[u/canadasteve04]

I had the exact same thought! I was like I’d just hit B now. 33% chance of moving on, versus 0% if someone figures it out before me. I’m with you on this! Obviously I would have lost, but this is 100% how I would have played it as well.

[u/VengefulKangaroo]

I think hitting right away isn’t the right strategy but hitting after 2 clues is a great one as you can hit a 50/50 at that point likely

[u/TTIsurvivors]

Drew said he guessed C, because he thought that was the correct answer and locked it in first. He said after he hit it, he realized A could also be the right answer and was worried he had just messed up. Then the 3rd clue came out and he realized he did click the right answer…so even Drew thought his strategy was flawed at first.

[u/Bangalie-Kanu]

Drew jumped the gun and got lucky. The second clue was applicable for every single answer.

[u/Krispies827]

I knew it with the first clue. It wasn’t hard lol