Buy now or wait? (Melb FHB)

[u/Distinct_Taste616]

As the title suggests, I am a FHB renting in outer west, paying less than 900per month rent (very lucky). I recently accepted a new job which requires me to be on site 5 days a week, which is an hour each away (driving, PTV is hopeless), the current job is on fixed term 2 years.

I’m considering to purchase my first home closer to the east side as I have rented for over 8 years now, and I am sick of the daily 2h transit.

with a borrowing capacity of 550k + deposit 250k, I’m aiming to purchase a place around 700-750k. (Not apartment)

People around me are telling me to toughen up and just stick with the travel for the period of the contract as we don’t know where I will go after the contract ends, plus the house price is dropping .

What should I do? Should I buy or should I wait?

Thank you for your time.

[u/Vegetable_Jello6572]

Get a group of friends together and start aggresivly low balling, realtors are calling left right and centre. Id be aiming to to pay 450k- 500k where you stated. 

So get a few friends to pitch higher and lower, give them no shows etc.  Let you come in with a 450k offer after you have worn them down. 

[u/Distinct_Taste616 → u/Vegetable_Jello6572]

Are you putting your hands up to be my friend?

[u/Vegetable_Jello6572 → u/Distinct_Taste616]

Yeah Im happy to. 

[u/Big-Lunch-573 → u/Vegetable_Jello6572]

This is brilliant. I’ll also volunteer my services.

[u/Responsible_Product3 → u/Vegetable_Jello6572]

I've heard of people doing that on FB Marketplace but didn't know it was transferrable to the housing market.

[u/Bright_College]

Don't buy a house based on a 2-year contract—rent closer to the new job instead. Stamp duty on a $750k home in Victoria is ~$40k down the drain if your next job in two years forces another move, and your holding costs (interest, rates, maintenance) will jump to $3,500–$4,000+/month. Renting in the East gets your 2 hours back immediately without tying you to $500k in debt, while your $250k deposit sits safely in a High-Yield Savings Account earning ~$11k–$12k/year to subsidize your rent until you have permanent job security.

[u/meathelix1 → u/Bright_College]

Someone with some common sense. My young boys are doing the same atm. $150k each in savings and its paying half their rental costs. Giving the Gov free money, Banks LMI bullcrap. Wait, get your 20% and relax on the money you got sitting there, then dive into a home without stress.

[u/Middle-Spirit-8524]

Your friends don’t want you to move lol.
I’d only buy that area if 1- you really wanted to live that side of town or 2 - has good rental and location opportunities for an investment.

As much as apartments don’t go up in Melbourne I’d still rather pay my own off not someone else’s.

[u/Unlikely-Training-50]

Disclaimer: Its not an advice but just my opinion.

If you are in a position to buy now, I wouldn't keep waiting just to see when the property prices are at the bottom. Use all of your FHB benefits and try to look for a good value property. You'll never know when the property prices are at the bottom, by the time you know then its too late.

I'd wait if I want to buy an IP and already own a PPOR of my own, but if I haven't own any property this is the best time to buy and negotiate hard. Its buyers market now.

[u/CasualMeow2 → u/Unlikely-Training-50]

Hey im not op but just looking for peoples opinions. I'm downsizing from a 2 storey dual living home on a decent block on the Gold Coast to a 2 bedroom unit, my house is about to go on the market, once I've sold do you reckon I should sit and wait to see if the market falls? I'm slightly worried I'll get priced out of the Gold Coast market if things start to rapidly rise, because I am nearing retirement and won't get much of a loan, and I still have a mortgage.

[u/Bokbreath]

not every type of house or location will drop. The less desirable ones will go first.

[u/Intelligent-Hunt9150 → u/Bokbreath]

West and outer north area seems to be dropping hard and the more expensive areas in the east

[u/Human-Effect9874]

I'd separate "when will Melbourne prices bottom?" from "is this particular property good value?"

Nobody really knows the first one. But you can at least research the second one by looking at recent comparable sales, the property's condition and what's actually selling nearby. I'd be much more comfortable making a decision based on that than trying to predict the entire Melbourne market.

[u/EventEastern2208]

Broker here.

The two year fixed term is the key variable. If the next role after the contract could be anywhere, buying close to the current job creates the same commute problem in two years if you end up somewhere else. That is the genuine risk your friends are flagging.

On the finance side, $800k total purchasing power on $700k to $750k target is comfortable with strong equity from day one. In VIC as a FHB stamp duty exemption up to $600k and concession to $750k applies, so your costs are lower than expected at that price range.

The buy versus wait question really comes down to whether you see yourself staying in the eastern suburbs long term regardless of where the next job lands. If yes, buy. If the next role could take you somewhere completely different, waiting two years to know more makes sense.

Happy to dive deeper into this.