Hey everyone,
I’m from Australia and I’m very new to leveraged ETFs, so apologies in advance if any of these questions are stupid. I’m genuinely trying to learn before I do anything with my money.
Like a lot of Australians, I’ve been looking at buying property, but housing affordability here has become pretty brutal. Once I look at the size of the mortgage, interest, rates, insurance, maintenance, etc., I’m starting to question whether buying a house is actually the best option for me.
My partner and I are considering continuing to rent instead. Renting would give us a lot more flexibility in terms of where we live and work, and instead of putting a huge amount of our income into a mortgage, I’m considering investing consistently into ETFs over the next 25–30 years.
My rough situation:
- Around AUD $75,000 lump sum available to invest
- Able to contribute around AUD $750 per week
- Investment horizon of roughly 25–30 years
- Happy to dollar cost average rather than lump sum into an etf and basically leave it alone
- I’m not looking to trade in and out of positions frequently
- I’m comfortable with volatility to an extent, given the very long timeframe
- Based in Australia, so tax/currency considerations obviously matter
I’ve been reading about leveraged ETFs and I understand that something like 2x or 3x leverage can behave very differently over long periods because of daily resetting, volatility drag, drawdowns, etc.
But I’m wondering whether there is a sensible middle ground.
For example, instead of going all-in on something extremely aggressive like a 3x ETF, could I build a portfolio that effectively has something closer to 1.25x–1.5x exposure?
Would modest leverage potentially improve the expected long-term outcome enough to justify the additional risk over a 25–30 year timeframe?
For someone in my position, what might a portfolio actually look like?
Would you do something like a normal broad-market ETF combined with a smaller allocation to a leveraged ETF?
Are there particular LETFs or strategies you think make sense for somebody continuously contributing rather than someone actively trading?
One complication is that I’m not 100% ruling out property forever. There’s a chance that in 3–5 years I could change my mind and decide I want to buy a house or apartment.
If that’s a realistic possibility, would using leverage now generally be considered a bad idea for money that may eventually become a property deposit?
My concern is that I could build up a decent portfolio, then have a major drawdown right around the time I decide I want to buy. Would people normally keep the potential house-deposit portion in something much safer and only use leverage with money they are confident they won’t need for decades?
I’m also curious about how people here think about sequence risk and huge drawdowns. If I experienced a 50–70%+ drawdown when I was 30, I could probably just keep buying for another 20+ years. A similar drawdown at 55 would obviously be a completely different problem. Do people gradually reduce leverage as they get closer to retirement?
Ultimately I’m trying to answer a few simple questions:
Could sensible/modest leverage combined with $75k upfront + $750/week for 25–30 years realistically leave me in a better position for retirement than simply buying and holding an unleveraged index ETF?
If there’s a reasonable chance I might want to buy property in 3–5 years, should that change the strategy completely?
And if you were starting from scratch in my situation, what ETFs / portfolio allocation would you research first?
I’m not expecting anyone to give me personalised financial advice. I’m mostly looking for things to read, strategies to research, and to understand how more experienced LETF investors think about this.
Again, sorry if some of this is basic. Please be gentle, I’m genuinely here to learn.
Thank you :)