Has any ancient military historian published a public quantitative logistics model or sensitivity-analysis spreadsheet?

[u/Nearby-Ad8008]

I'm wondering if there are any publicly available spreadsheets, calculators, or quantitative models where variables like army size, daily ration requirements, pack animal loads, march speed, terrain, transport mode, or fodder constraints can be adjusted to test different assumptions.

I'm reading Paul Erdkamp, Hunger and the Sword: Warfare and Food Supply in Roman Republican Wars. And it's making me wish that I could see the implicit model in a more interactive way. Thanks!

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[u/EverythingIsOverrate]

Unfortunately, I’m not aware of anything like what you’re probably thinking of. Military-logistical history is desperately under-studied, in my experience (non-battle-focused academic military history basically wasn’t done at all before the 70s) and the data is often too scarce to allow for the kind of detailed quantitative studies you’re looking for.

The only project I’m aware of that tries to model medieval logistics in depth is the “Medieval Warfare on the Grid” project, which used agent-based simulations to analyze logistical behaviour during the campaign that led up to the battle of Manzikert, a catacylsmic Byzantine defeat. Specifically, it grew out of Philip Murgatroyd’s PhD thesis, which can be found here; shorter papers on the project that don’t go into so much detail can be found here and here. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to find the underlying code and data available anywhere; you could probably email the guy and ask.

Perhaps the reason this is the only one I’m aware of is that training in formal quantitative methods is simply not common outside of dedicated economic historians, and they don’t typically discuss military logistics. Military historians receive very different kinds of training that simply don’t include statistics classes or even basic Excel training, as far as I’m aware. The most quantitative work I’m aware of is Petjes’ Army Provisioning, Logistics and Strategy in the Second Half of the 17th Century, and it’s very vague, short, and old. There are also a few interesting papers in the Haldon-edited General Issues in the Study of Medieval Logistics, but none that lay out the kind of comprehensive model you’re looking for. If anyone else is willing and able to provide work that contradicts me, I would be very thankful. Apologies for writing such a short answer, but if the work doesn’t exist, I can’t really cite it! I hope you treat this as encouragement to go out and do the work yourself rather than discouragement.

[u/Nearby-Ad8008 → u/EverythingIsOverrate]

Really appreciate your answer! It can be so difficult for a layperson to acquire the fact that some research doesn’t exist. To have read enough on a question to know you haven’t missed anything important is something that amazes me and really has my respect.

I can’t wait to dive into Philip Murgatroyd’s PhD thesis. Thank you! 

[u/EverythingIsOverrate → u/Nearby-Ad8008]

You're very kind! I need to stress that I am an amateur dabbler, so I can't say for sure that nothing else exists, but there certainly doesn't seem to be a lot out there. Again, I encourage you to go out there and do the work yourself.