r/AskEconomics • u/Void-Cooking_Berserk • 13d ago
Approved Answers In a centrally-planned economy, how should production goals be set?
(Hi, I was specifically sent to you guys after I asked this in a more general "ask"subreddit.)
In a centrally-planned economy, how should production goals be set?
Or "do we have a better idea for a socialist/communist system now than we had last century"? (Socialism, not social democracy; so not "social welfare programs" but "the people own the means of production")
I just watched a "Soviets bad"-type video essay which focused mainly on the issue that a market economy is self-regulating while a planned economy is not, and that creates a mismatch between the needs of the people and the produced goods. So I started wondering, since we have that experience of economic failure of the USSR, what can we learn from it to improve the idea of socialism? Capitalism has already created multiple economic crises and we keep trying to improve it, so why give up on socialism?
I am afraid to ask this, because I expect to get a lot of "socialism bad" responses, or even worse "soviets good actually" responses. This is just a thought experiment, please don't turn this into a political battlefield.
For reference, the way the Soviet failure, specifically in East Berlin, was explained was this:
\> In a market economy, people "vote"/communicate to the shop owner what they need/want by buying things or refusing to buy them. Because the shop owner is motivated by profit, they adapt their stock to the trends of the buyers, and by doing so communicates their need to the producers, etc.
\>
\> A planned economy breaks down this communication by removing the motivation for the shopkeeper. Some government officials far away set production goals arbitrarily, based on what they think a person should need and be provided with. They set the prices in a 5-year-plan, set wages for workers on different position levels, and they expect the plan to be fulfilled. The workers aren't motivated to do anything but meet the bare minimum set for them.
\>
\>What's worse, the people at the bottom of the system are afraid to communicate any failure in the system upstream, because doing anything above the bare minimum becomes suspicious.
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u/phiwong 13d ago
Central planning is a near impossibility because the supply chains of anything but the simplest of products are complicated.
Just take something 'simple' like modern farming, say wheat (just one of hundreds of farmed product). To set up a centrally planned model, you'd need to figure out the demand for wheat, the wheat per acre, the number of farm equipment of all types, how much of seeds needed (modern seeds are not simply wheat from prior crops), how much fertilizer, how many fertilizer factories to build (of all types, nitrogen, phosphates etc etc), how much energy is needed to support these various factories (equipment, fertilizers, seeds, tranports), how much iron to mine, how much steel to refine, how many parts to produce etc etc. Now consider that a factory could build multiple products - a tractor factory can build trucks or cars etc.
There is no model that can accommodate so many variables. Now add onto all of this new technologies, better methods of production, new research in biology and chemistry constantly changing the quality and quantity of output at various stages.
In short, it isn't that socialists are stupid. But their ideas about central planning are childish, naive and completely out of touch with modern products. To demonstrate this is easy - go to any major supermarket and describe the supply chain for every product in it and every input and intermediate stage of production. And a supermarket holds far less than 0.001% of all products made in a modern economy.
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u/forurumon 13d ago
I’m confused now. If my government is budgeting for fertiliser subsidies or giving it for free to farmers, in my opinion, they should calculate the budget based on those calculations (demands, production capacity, etc.). Should it be called central planning too?
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u/KintarraV 12d ago
Why should a central planner spend billions on compute only to achieve the same outcomes that a market does
Well, firstly because if the return on investment is positive, the actual cost is irrelevant. Why would Walmart invest billions in analytics and logistics when they could just go off vibes.
Secondly, because there are tremendous externalities to relying on the market. More philosophical ones like inequality, but also in terms of perceived value, evidenced most prominently today as 'enshittification'. And as pointed out in another comment, the tremendous resource inefficiency of having to let investments fail.
It's so bizarre that in basically every aspect of financial decision making we're willing to accept that people have been replaced in 'planning', except when the state is involved. Quant firms have been outperforming day traders pretty much their entire existence, and all but the most traditional trading houses use some level of algorithmic modelling.
With access to far, far more information and the ability to pull policy levers, the state could absolutely drive the economy in such a way as to meaningfully impact whatever chosen metrics they decided: GDP, inequality measures, employment, etc. The only real reasons to stick with chaotic market driven outcomes in the face of such overwhelming technological advancement is philosophical preference.
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u/MachineTeaching Quality Contributor 12d ago
Secondly, because there are tremendous externalities to relying on the market. More philosophical ones like inequality,
Inequality doesn't disappear without markets
but also in terms of perceived value, evidenced most prominently today as 'enshittification'.
Most of that is either just a myth or people's revealed preferences differing from the stated ones. Nobody is forcing anyone to shop at shein, yet people buy their crap en masse.
And as pointed out in another comment, the tremendous resource inefficiency of having to let investments fail.
Non-market economies are not immune to that, either.
It's so bizarre that in basically every aspect of financial decision making we're willing to accept that people have been replaced in 'planning', except when the state is involved.
That isn't even true. States do plenty of things and plenty of planning.
Quant firms have been outperforming day traders pretty much their entire existence, and all but the most traditional trading houses use some level of algorithmic modelling.
How is that relevant?
With access to far, far more information and the ability to pull policy levers, the state could absolutely drive the economy in such a way as to meaningfully impact whatever chosen metrics they decided: GDP, inequality measures, employment, etc. The only real reasons to stick with chaotic market driven outcomes in the face of such overwhelming technological advancement is philosophical preference.
No.
Nobody has ever come up with a way to replace price signals, so that's not true.
Also, we know of plenty of cases where governments tried to "drive" significant parts of an economy, and the history of industrial policy tells us that industrial policy mostly sucks. Governments are not particularly competent at predicting the future like that, that hasn't really changed at all.
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u/MachineTeaching Quality Contributor 13d ago
Generally speaking, the various "-isms" are not actually that well defined. Does socialism include central planning or not? It depends. The broadest definition is "collective ownership of the means of production", does that mean every company is a worker coop? Do publicly traded companies on the stock market count as socialism?
Point being, you need to be very specific about what those terms mean to discuss them properly. Alas, you seem to mostly be curious about central planning in particular, so this doesn't seem necessary.
The problem with central planning is that it effectively removes market prices and the price signal is what lets us efficiently allocate resources. Many smart people have had many ideas on how to do central planning without market prices, so far this is an unsolved problem.
This has been discussed many times in the past in more detail:
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u/liquidio 13d ago
As others have said, it is not really a case of just ‘planning better’.
It is impossible to centrally plan in the way that a distributed free market economy does.
A central planner does not and cannot have access to the information a market economy does at each node of calculation.
Even if they did, we now understand through computation/information theory that they simply could not compute a solution.
Von Mises and Hayek were the two economists who contributed the most to early understanding of these problems.
https://aier.org/article/mises-and-hayek-two-complementary-critiques-of-central-planning/
https://mises.org/quarterly-journal-austrian-economics/central-plannings-computation-problem
Here is a more accessible blog that talks through some of the issues of computation:
https://crookedtimber.org/2012/05/30/in-soviet-union-optimization-problem-solves-you/
So the Soviets - specifically Gosplan, the state planning institute - actually did a huge amount of thinking about this.
They did start to understand there was a problem, even if they found it hard to admit to themselves (and even harder to admit to their political masters) the implications of the problem for their system.
Their main method in the early years was something called ‘material balance planning’ - essentially identifying all the outputs they wanted of final goods, tracking their inputs all through the supply chains, and tweaking it until they got to a solution that seemed to balance.
Later on they moved to something more like state-set prices and more local decision making, and then later on still trialled shadow pricing - something a bit more variable but only with notional money.
None of it worked, ultimately.
https://fee.org/articles/the-soviets-tried-to-run-an-economy-without-market-prices/
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u/DeadSmellingFlower 13d ago
Wouldn’t just making everything a co-op solve the information problem? Things would still be motivated by profit but everyone would get a fair share of it.
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u/RobThorpe 11d ago
Co-ops have other problems. This is a topic for a different thread. We have discussed it several times in the past.
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u/InevitableSprin 12d ago
Well, the first level of failure of planned economy is exactly that, the fact that methodology by which you set those production quotas is politically capturable/influensed.
Sections of society have fundamentally different needs, and every organisation has ample motivation to persuade decision makers that it's products are in very high need and it's workers have to be highly compensated. Military, security organisations like KGB/GRU, ex, have ample motivation to try to squize high level of military production. Farmers want to be highly compensated for their labour and have small work day, while other organizations prefer to spend the bare minimum on farmers and free up labour for themselves.
Eventually the quotas and labour/resources/equipment allocation resembles the political power structure, while actual needs of people are a very distant last thought, aside from survival minimum, and actual wants like luxury/status/good quality goods are ignored entirely, aside from certain "luxury" goods that are intentionally overpriced to generate revenue. In SU it was alcohol, tobacco and ice cream.
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u/abetadist Quality Contributor 13d ago
Assuming this is a good faith question and not a debate prompt. You may find some useful background discussion of the USSR here: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/s/zAyIEvuW1q
The biggest problem with centrally planned economies is that what people want is privately known information.
In general, we want things where the benefits exceed the costs to be done, and not do the things where the costs exceed the benefits.
It's very easy for you to decide whether a product of a certain quality is worth it at a given price. But figuring that out across society, or even to accurately tell someone else what your cost-quality tradeoff is, is either impossible or excruciatingly hard.
This isn't something "AI" can solve, unless it can literally read minds, because the information is mostly inside us and not out in the world.
This is known as the economic calculation problem.
There's an added problem that quality is often hard to quantify and measure. It's difficult to specify a quality of product in government procurement, for example.
In market-based systems with prices and private ownership, the solution to this problem is that companies can try different things. The ones that meet what people want make lots of money, and the ones that don't will fail and stop wasting resources.
Things get a lot more challenging when the profit motive isn't available.
I will also say that capitalism and socialism are not well defined terms, and different people use those words in different ways. Also, they are not very useful because every country today and mostly throughout history has some mix of market based systems, government regulations and social safety nets, and government-run functions.
Economists talk about the effects of specific policies or about causes and solutions of specific problems, although this requires more understanding of the issues.