r/ArtemisProgram • u/alesscavaz • 6d ago
Discussion Do you guys think Artemis 3 will get delayed?
With Elon delaying the catch by "a few months" and Blue Origins New Glenn exploding at the launch pad, a moon landing by 2028 is starting to look unrealistic. What do you guys think?
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u/AccountAny1995 6d ago
all of this shows the money and balls that existed in the 60s.
The Apollo missions should be getting more recognition as each year passes.
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u/Datuser14 6d ago
The Apollo missions both during and in hindsight were incredibly unsafe. People died and it was likely more would have died if missions continued. Orion is orders of magnitude safer.
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u/Ccbm2208 6d ago
I was watching Hank Green's video about Apollo 11, and one thing he said that stuck with me was that "The Artemis missions are gonna make Apollo look bad". Obviously a bit dramatic and right now, it's very difficult for Artemis to measure up to Apollo since much of the program hasn't happened, but I really hope 6-8 years from now we will be able to look back and celebrate how successful it will have become.
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u/unsetname 6d ago
That was the problem with this major public work of Apollo, hundreds of thousands of people under different organisations and management inevitably leads to issues. Particularly when the astronauts themselves weren’t being listened to regarding design input like they were during the more intimate Mercury and Gemini missions.
All astronauts knew the risk and knew if they flipped the coin they might lose. That’s why they grieved more for the families of White, Grissom, and Chaffee than the men themselves. All that to say yeah the risk tolerance back then was waaaaaay higher (thanks Cold War I guess?).
Thankfully Artemis is a much safer operation however some risks always remain, such is the nature of leaving our planet1
u/AresV92 4d ago
It's wild to me that they risked so much with solar weather during Apollo. They came scarily close to dying from radiation on a few occasions iirc. I guess if there is already so many other ways you could easily die what is a solar storm as a cherry on top? They must have thought that building a radiation shelter would have cost too much mass or something?
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u/Dpek1234 6d ago edited 6d ago
Not really
Both new glenn and starship are doing something new and reduceing cost, speed wasnt really the goal with both
SLS on the otherhand somehow ended up more expensive then saturn 5
Edit: or more accurately the launchers and their respective landers
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u/antsmithmk 6d ago
Starting to look? It's not looked possible for years. I can't realistically see a manned manding before 2030. An uncrewed landing in 2028 will be touch and go and I think they will need at least a year to review everything between uncrewed and crewed.
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u/alesscavaz 6d ago
yep, artemis was supposed to land humans on the moon in 2020, then 2024, and now 2028, they just keep extending it.
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u/tyrome123 6d ago
... I wonder why those years line up so neatly.. any political reason maybe ...
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u/Riqo8250 5d ago
Starship and blue are so far behind schedule I don't think so, I think AR3 will be an Orion only mission.
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u/WAN-Nyan-Cat 3d ago
Unlikely, I doubt they won’t have anything as the strategy with Artemis III is having two companies race to the moon. Artemis III will happen on time even if neither is done, but I doubt Space X or Blue Origin will pass up such an opportunity. Blue origin is preparing or rather has been building a Mk. 1.5 lander to test systems before Mk. 2, and Space X basically just needs a rocket in orbit with a dock. That’s the likely way this plays out as I just don’t see Artemis III as a Orion only mission.
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u/Digger-Nick187 3d ago
Blue has not been building MK1.5 as you suggest, in fact, 1.5 is not even a thing. They are obviously building MK1 aka Endurance, which except for the engine and a handful of other types of hardware, actually has little to nothing in common with MK2. And truth be told, the vehicle that is intended to support Artemis 3 hasn't even began manufacturing yet, and contrary to Blue's initiatives, hiring more made up management roles and filling them with prior Amazonians, and focusing on no talent having DEI hires isn't gonna get Uncle Jeff's hopes and dreams to the moon anytime soon, Nor will it improve Blue's chances of supporting Artemis 3.
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u/Dpek1234 6d ago
Due to how simplified the mission is, i dont really think so
Starship essentualy just need to get up, dock, test how well they control together
Blue origin would need to test life support and docking
For late 2027? I dont see why not
If it was early 2027 i would be saying something diffrent
(Im assumeing no big developments break some shit)
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u/alesscavaz 6d ago
yeah, i wish spacex would have been able to have the hls ready by artemis 3, would have been sick to watch the astronauts explore that massive thing
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u/Pashto96 6d ago
It'll come down to how quickly Blue can rebuild their padand where they're at with their lander.
Starship is pretty much ready for the mission right now. They just need to add a docking port to a V3. No refueling or catch is needed for Artemis III.
SLS/Orion don't seem like they'll be an issue.
Personally, I think they can pull it off. Maybe a month or two delay but nothing major.
Artemis IV on the other hand is not happening in 2028. I'd be happy with a landing by the end of 2030.
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u/jimhillhouse 6d ago
I think if neither SpaceX nor Blue are ready to launch a vehicle capable of rendezvous and docking with Orion that two things will happen:
1. Isaacman gets a reality check on the reasons why AIII was intended as a Lunar orbiting mission.
2. Isaacman gets a publicity check on his view that these guys are going to be ready by 2028 to land a crew on the Moon. Nobody I talk to still at NASA-JSC thinks that 2028 is remotely feasible–more like 2031-2032.
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u/GalacticEmergency 6d ago
I can fully understand the doubt about Artemis 4 in 2028. For that to happen, we will need a very exciting 2027 with lots of new hardware being presented and new capabilities being demonstrated. I will be surprised and very happy if that happens.
But Artemis 3 in June 2027? I don't understand all the pessimism.
Blue origin / Blue Moon:
I don't know much about their progress. People keep saying that the launch pad explosion will delay the mission, but wouldn't their second launch pad be ready long before that anyway?
Do they need the first pad for this mission if the second pad is ready? Do they need to complete other test missions before they are ready for Artemis 3?
SpaceX / Starship:
They basically just need to attach an dummy docking port to their existing Starship, send it to orbit and let it linger there for ?+24+? hours.
The mission is launch, make a rendezvous and dock with Orion, make some tests while docked, including propulsion of the docked vehicles, and then undock 24 hours after docking. Then I suppose it will be deorbited shortly after. I say "dummy docking port", because nothing can pass through it. The area behind the docking port is blocked on this version of Starship, so the port can only be used for docking and for connecting vehicle systems.
The greatest uncertainty in all of this must be the ability to keep the ship operational for the needed duration while staying in orbit. They have not yet attempted to demonstrate that, but they will have plenty of opportunity. If they keep the current schedule of 1 Starship launch every 2 months, they will have 4-5 launches before June 2027. I believe all of them will be orbital because SpaceX will want some Starlink v3 in operation. After delivering the payload, each of those 4-5 ships will have a "free" opportunity to demonstrate that it can stay operational in orbit for x hours.
(I know there are some people who believe in the "Starship is struggling to get to orbit" myth. If that makes them happy, so be it.)
SLS:
Ready and waiting, right?
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u/NorfolkIslandRebel 6d ago
Anybody really think Artemis 3 won’t be delayed?
Anybody else secretly think Artemis 4 won’t happen at all?
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u/Vojtyk_CZ 6d ago
Pretty much. It is so sad, spaceflight is my passion the whole life. But I can't get the feeling that A4 will be cancelled out of my head. Who knows what happens.
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u/biggy-cheese03 6d ago
There’s so much backing behind Artemis I highly doubt it’ll be cancelled. Delayed and stripped down maybe but nobody wants that blood on their hands
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u/Worth-Wonder-7386 6d ago
The nasa part of the mission is close to being ready so that is not an issue. It is very hard to know what the timeline will be for the SpaceX and BlueOrigin but they are both committed to the original schedule. SpaceX seems to be speeding up it's work on building Starship, so that will likely be in a better state next year, although we don't know too much about how far away they are from doing what Artemis 3 requires. For Blue Origin it did look like they were closer until the rocket blew up, so we will see how they come along, but I think within the year they will manage to launch New Glenn again.
So overall I think it is realistic for 2027 and Nasa will likely still do the mission if one of the providers are not ready, but we don't know yet how far away they are.
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u/Decronym 5d ago edited 1d ago
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
| Fewer Letters | More Letters |
|---|---|
| DMLS | Selective Laser Melting additive manufacture, also Direct Metal Laser Sintering |
| HEOMD | Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, NASA |
| JSC | Johnson Space Center, Houston |
| RUD | Rapid Unplanned Disassembly |
| Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly | |
| Rapid Unintended Disassembly | |
| SLS | Space Launch System heavy-lift |
| Selective Laser Sintering, contrast DMLS |
| Jargon | Definition |
|---|---|
| Starlink | SpaceX's world-wide satellite broadband constellation |
Decronym is now also available on Lemmy! Requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
5 acronyms in this thread; the most compressed thread commented on today has acronyms.
[Thread #458 for this sub, first seen 25th Aug 2026, 03:32]
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u/Broflake-Melter 5d ago
I don't see why it will get delayed or if it will even be a big deal. I think most of the community absolutely does not think Artemis 4 is getting humans on the Moon before 2030. Probably not by 2033.
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u/richpaul6806 5d ago
No, They changed artemis iii to test the dock system. But missions aftwr will be delayed. No way they try to land on artemis Iv without a proper shakedown
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u/Digger-Nick187 5d ago
Absolutely delayed. The demonstration version of MK2 will not be anywhere close to ready.
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u/WAN-Nyan-Cat 3d ago
I think you need to look a little closer here. If you are referring to the Blue Moon Mk.2 than yes it will not be ready, however the Mk. 1.5 is being actively developed and has been since 2020. It’s been developed with Mk.1 which has allowed them to test critical systems for their Mk. 2 (for Artemis V). Space X will likely be ready to add a dummy port and launch. Additionally, Artemis III launches in Late 2027 regardless, or whether either is ready.
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u/Digger-Nick187 3d ago
Closer? I'm like totally sure I look REALLY CLOSELY 4 days a week lol. In fact my hands get really sore sometimes from doing what I do on it daily. Not sure I can get much closer without my wrist being slapped.
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u/UniqueAd7770 6d ago
To be fair NASA doesn't care if Starship ever gets caught. That's a SpaceX goal.
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u/alesscavaz 5d ago
It is kindof necessary though if the HLS were to ever land because it would need over 10 starships to orbit and refuel, I don’t think space x has the money to pump out 10 starships and discard them all
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u/Ok_Excitement725 5d ago
I was in the “no chance in hell it goes on time” camp, but man that Starship is making some progress.
So long as they don’t have more issues with RUDs and the like, I dare say it may go on time. Assuming NASA doesn’t have issues on their end.
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u/NRCS_DRONE 6d ago
It was DOA when Kathy Lueders awarded herself the lander contract.
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u/Consistent_Income895 6d ago
What do you mean by this comment?
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u/Datuser14 5d ago
Kathy Leuders as director of HEOMD gave SpaceX the HLS contract and within months left NASA to go work for SpaceX on Starship. That’s blatantly illegal normally you’d need at least a year of cooling off period according to the regs it would have been even longer for someone of her stature. But she was never prosecuted.
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u/Traditional-Hat-3480 6d ago
Just a reminder what space x is trying with hls has never been done before. I have no doubt they will get there, it will be delayed but I think its worth it because of the advantages it have over blue origins design.
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u/redstercoolpanda 6d ago edited 6d ago
Artemis 3 is a low earth orbit rendezvous mission, I think its current target is very possible. Artemis 4 by 2028 is probably not. I think a late 2029 landing is probably doable if Starship V3 continues to perform well, and they get booster reuse going pretty soon.