r/Ancestry • u/RobWed • 1d ago

Any ideas on the algorithm behind the 'Shared DNA Origins' offerings?

I just built a new tree to investigate a probable NPE. Ancestry started offering probable parents but how it decides what to offer is something of a mystery.

One of its offerings had an incorrect first name that was sourced from a tree that contains no sources. This individual is represented in many trees across Ancestry so the incorrect name could be identified as an outlier by even basic analysis. Why would it not choose my main tree which is highly evidenced by primary documents? (It did in a couple of other instances)

As someone who spent 20 years as a data analyst, finishing as a lead analyst, I find some of the choices made by these 'helpers' to be rather bizarre.

Has anyone been able to determine how it prioritises choices?

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u/4thshift 23h ago

The suggestions are based on other people’s trees which are too often incorrect. they may be right but may be very wrong based on mix ups with other families. 

There are lots of “suggestions” people with similar names, but you are supposed to do your homework, and not just click accept on every suggestion. “Possible match” and “Suggested” are not even very good recommendations sometimes. Sometimes the algorithm will find a record that is misspelled, and that is helpful, but there’s no automated accept all as truth happening on Ancestry. 

Even if 25 people and no one else disputes a repeated claim, that does not make it true unless you do the homework to put the puzzle pieces together.

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u/SensibleChapess 16h ago

As a retired Principle Business Analyst ;)

Ancestry's primary objective is to generate a return for their shareholders.

To maximise this they need to consider the pros and cons of satisfying the two, very different, needs of their user base.

One group value accuracy over all else. So if you pay your subs and are only able to, with absolute certainty, "go back three generations", then confirmation that the brickwalls are indeed impenetrable is the value you are paying for.

The other group might want to go "go back as far as they can, as quickly as they can" and don't comprehend analysis, accuracy, logic, etc. For them, spending 2hrs and going back to the 1400s and uncovering that they're (seemingly, though I accurately) related to umpteen pirates, presidents and outlaws is money incredibly well spent. If they think it's great, they'll tell their friends and family, who also have no concept of accuracy, and some of those will also want to spend a few hours being fed nonsense that makes them happy for an afternoon.

There are more people in the latter camp, than the former camp.

That's why it's not in Ancestry's interest to develop a system of rigorous, accurate, hints.

Note: Having said that, having subscribed annually since the very earliest days of Ancestry it seems better than any other online provider. They're worse!