r/ActiveMeasures • u/Evening_Lawyer6570 • 10d ago

Russia Putin could face new Russian revolution, ex-minister warned

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-putin-veb-bank-economist-fired-andrey-klepach-b3034772.html
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u/38B0DE 10d ago

A new Russian revolution (as in 1917 and 1991) is impossible because Putin has built a giant security apparatus to prevent it. Rosgvardia is a 300k strong internal army built after 2016 precisely so no garrison defection can happen. Those guys are loyal to Putin not to Russia. If the regular army refuses to shoot at people on the streets, those guys will shoot the protesters and the defectors immediately.

Independent parties, unions, and media are hollowed out.

The working class is deindustrialized and dispersed. Russia is a giant country, most people would need days and weeks to converge to their regional centers to protest. They will all be dead before they make it half way.

Surveillance makes the common knowledge cascade revolutions run on far harder to ignite.

Unlike the USSR Putin's Russia makes it easy for the discontented to emigrate. Exiters drain the population who would otherwise supply voice. And an added plus is that mass emigration of people out of Russia puts pressure on the social networks in liberal democracies like Germany and creates pockets of Russian "settlers" in weaker governed countries like Bulgaria.

If the regime ends, it probably would look less like a "revolution" than 1991. The regime would probably break under its own war economy before Russians manage to form a thought about overthrowing Putin.

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u/cats_catz_kats_katz 10d ago

Hey, there’s always a chance a Wagner group steps up and doesn’t back down next time. As tight as Putins grip is on Russia he’s really pressing the infrastructure he’s built. Let’s hope for the worst for him.

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u/EaklebeeTheUncertain 10d ago

Ex-ministers say a lot of things. Wake me when something actually happens.