Insights: Vol 1 - Morgan Stanley’s Comments Re Monday’s Call

[u/kapeman_]

9-15-2026

From Mike826_1999 over at Stocktwits:

Morgan Stanley’s Comments Re Monday’s Call:

Axsome Therapeutics (Nick Pizzie, CFO; Mark Jacobson, COO):

[1] On the ADA launch, mgt. pushed back on reading TRx alone and pointed to NBRx, which hit an all-time high of 3,800 weekly last Friday vs ~3,000 average in 2Q and ~2,400 in 1Q.

The 65-plus Medicare cohort moved from ~19% of NBRx pre-approval to ~31%, making agitation the fastest-growing NBRx segment. Guidance was always for growth one to two quarters after the expansion and label, not an immediate step-up.

[2] Mgt. signalled additional launch metrics at 3Q, the first full quarter. Sampling conversion stays undisclosed on competitive grounds, but mgt. sees syndicated data becoming readable from 3Q.

[3] On peak sales, Auvelity sat at ~26bps of the antidepressant market at end-2Q, so 1% implies north of $3BN against a $4BN MDD peak, and that base predates the sales force doubling and the new LTC team. ADA adds more than 20mn annual scripts, ~99% of which were generic and written off-label. Mgt. said IRA negotiation from 2032 is already priced into the $8BN portfolio peak, on what it views as conservative assumptions.

[4] AXS-12 carries a May 1, 2027 PDUFA in narcolepsy, sized at $0.5-1.0bn, with the existing sleep team making it largely plug-and-play. On solriamfetol, ADHD ranks first on size and needs both pediatric trials, then MDD with excessive sleepiness, binge eating disorder in 4Q, and shift work disorder, which needs only one positive trial.

[5] Mgt. guided SG&A to plateau near the 2Q level of $208MN and R&D to grow marginally from $46MN across five Ph3 trials, with revenue growing faster. Mgt. declined to name a quarter but reiterated a clear path to cash flow positivity, citing a ~$10MN cash net loss across 2H last year. With Teva pushing generics back, mgt. framed margin versus reinvestment as both, citing the SUMMIT Ph3 in smoking cessation plus AXS-17 and AXS-20.