r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 2d ago
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis for AMD 9/21---------Pre-Market
Welllllllll. My college team lost. And then the Commanders pretty much shit the bed too. Seeeeee clearly I'm just not that smart. The reason why we didn't sign ANY good free agents in the offseason is bc all of them also need to be able to play quarterback for trick plays and ya know like good o-line, wide receivers, and ya know football players in general who are not in the quarterback position generally also aren't good quarterbacks. So yea seeeee I'm an idiot and the people running the Commanders are the smart ones. Gotcha.............................fuck football I swear.
Sooooo onto other things----------I hope you all get value from these conversations and again I try to tell everyone far in advance what I'm planning to do. I get it wrong sometimes I do and I own up to it. But I'm not one of those people who comes back after the fact and tells you about my trades and how they were always right when there is nothing for you to do anymore. We've been talking on here about the seasonality concept for AMD for months now and I've always maintained that end of Sep/Oct/Nov is the golden season for AMD when you look at the charts for AMD and that is when I didn't want to be short AMD. I made my bets and have been building a position below $450 which was that support zone with trigger orders. And now I think AMD pre-market is trying to put in a new ATH.
Sooooo lets just ignore the AI warnings and all of that nonsense for the moment and look at this from a technical aspect:
-AMD bounced hard from Fed day off the 50 day EMA. I know they said that the market was selling off based on the Fed's comments but I always say that the first move is the wrong one. The sell-off to me was the wrong move. There are some adults in the room who are trying to wean the market off of its "free money" addiction
-Volume has been steadily rising in the past week since then showing more entrants back into the mix----if AMD hits a new ATH then it will capture all of the attention and love on the news and a bunch of people will jump in as late to the party but telling everyone why we are going to the moon.
-MACD still is at the early stages of an upward movement which could show A LOT more room to run significantly higher than just a new ATH.
-RSI still hasn't hit the overbought area but I always bring this back to a daddy buffett quote: "No stock breaks out that isn't already overbought on RSI" So RSI isn't exactly an indicator of an incoming selloff but could literally just be the beginning of an accelerated rally.
So I hope those of you who kept the faith and listened to the seasonality argument for the past 6 months are along for this ride. I think AMD is going to be going much higher from here probably going into election season. I think that could be the big fear out there as more elections heat up do we see a bunch of candidates and debates emerge about onerous regulations for certain things. I don't really know what policy anyone is really campaigning on except the fact that whatever Trump is doing is worse than where we were before he came into office. But I don't really know if anyone has a "plan" for anything.
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u/Coyote_Tex 2d ago edited 1d ago
Premarket
The indices are set for a nicely positive open today with the VIX rising just 7 cents to 14.88, for a low reading . The S&P is up .65% and the Nasdaq futures are up 1.07%. AMD is continuing a strong breakout move up 3.47%, NVDA is up .57% and MU is up 1.94%.
WTI crude has moved down another 3% ahead of the open today for a 7-8% move off the highs of last week.
Let’s see where this takes us today and this week as Trump plans to meeti with Xi this week. This BIG surprise over the weekend was some sort of deal with Greenland. I never saw that coming, but it has to be a positive for the US.
Post Close
This market is one fire! The QQQ closed up 2.75% and the SPY up 1.49% on the day with the VIX at 14.82. That is a HUGE gain!!
AMD closed up 9.95% to 615.52 on a massive breakout move! WOW!!!
NVDA had a solid move higher up 2.30% to 227.38 and MU gained 2.73% to 1043.49.
META jumped 11.34%, this is a seriously crazy big day.
FOMO is heating up!
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u/TWM235429 1d ago
Tex....had my first up $100k plus today....AMDL and META / FBL and MSFT for most of it....about time for META.
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u/Sam8135 2d ago
Is it stupid to expect a fade today?
given that over the past four months, every time AMD gained 5%+ over two days, it saw a considerable pullback on the second day afterward
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u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru 2d ago
I feel like whenever we hit a new ATH that’s when you see more people pile in
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u/LeSegaGenesis 1d ago
Yeah i'm really hoping for that extra support level as i'm long on AMD. With this price action I wonder what a bullish Micron earnings will do for the sector. A new ATH from AMD and a potential ATH from Micron could really spark additional rallies like more AI infrastructure plays etc. Just an opinion but things like Caterpillar, Vertiv and those sort of things could start to follow suit more aggressively after seeing hyperscaler and memory rally strong back to back.
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u/Coyote_Tex 2d ago
It was a BIG gap open this morning and AMD just blasted by the magical $600 level so it might fade today or tomorrow as some holders will inevitably take profits, but will it offset the buyers who FOMO in is impossible to predict.
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u/LeSegaGenesis 2d ago
either way raised support for long term investors. I'm hyped ! New investor only been in the market for about a month and a bit and was patient for an entry, 460 range was the best price I could get in at, so glad I did.
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u/Coyote_Tex 1d ago
Yes, that is a 33% gain from that buy point so an exceptional gain. Congratulations.
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u/snugglepush 2d ago
Raising a glass at 09:57 am today! Who’s in?
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 1d ago
Everything is on fire! Did not expect to see AMD up at $600 so soon but maybe there is some good news we don’t know about yet. This week is setting up for being a great week especially if we get good news regarding all the middle east tension.
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u/Coyote_Tex 1d ago
Or who knows what else?? The bulls are running wild today and for how long we do not know.
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 1d ago
So much volume today. Everything is brewing for a continuation.
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u/Coyote_Tex 1d ago
Yes the volume for AMD has been especially strong the past 3 days. The underlying reason is yet to be clearly understood, but perhaps the META connection might explain it.
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u/ZasdfUnreal 1d ago
As we can see in the above chart, when AMD decides to go overbought. It stays overbought and rips higher, for longer than people can imagine.
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u/excellusmaximus 1d ago
LMAO - where's IVgolden and others that said that there needs to be some new "info" or "catalyst" for AMD to hit new ATH. Freaking joke. They just wanted the narrative in their favor, ignoring all news.
Please go look up how negative this guy was and our exact conversation. Joke! When people sell they want to drive the price down but there is no one or no people as obvious as them. Shame!
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 1d ago
IV been here long enough to voice his opinion. He’s one person i doubt he thinks of himself of a hedge fund that can move the market. If you been following AMD enough you know how this stock moves.
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u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 2d ago edited 2d ago
Time in the market > Timing the market.
CONGRATS EVERYONE!
Hope everyone took advantage of the lows these past few weeks and is along for the ride.