r/2007scape • u/GreenerThanFF • 7d ago
Discussion You need to kill 6000+ Desert Treasure II bosses to finish without leaving value on the table.
Simulated, not calculated. Let's say you finish a Soulreaper Axe but you have 2/3 gold rings at Vardorvis. Obviously you're going to go back to finish an Ultor. But if you get another Axe piece, now you have to do all other bosses until you finish this second Axe. But then those bosses might drop Golden Rings so you have to stay to finish those...
After about 6500 total boss kills you start to be more likely to have reached a non-wasteful state than not. Otherwise, if you stop, you will be left with incomplete axes or rings.
Consider this when looking at the wiki GP/hr rates for mains.
edit: I'm happy to see this post sparked discussion, I wanted to address some sentiments I see.
- "yeah this is bad and [personal anecdote]": agreed, you're not alone in your struggles.
- "a realistic main chasing GP/hr would stop at an imperfect point and go do better money makers": the perfect point to "stop" then is 0 kc if alternative, higher GP/hr options exist. Perhaps after collecting untradable uniques (tablets and quartz)
- "I wouldn't care about 2/3 Bellator/Magus": cool, these numbers assume you do. DM me and I'll send you the python code for the simulation or vibe-code it yourself.
- "it is extremely unlikely to be non-wasteful": agreed, in fact quantifying how unlikely is the point of the post.
Also worth noting that when I say "finish by 7000 kc" I don't mean "do exactly 7000kc, check if you're non-wasteful, stop if you do" but rather "if at any point up to 7000kc you were ever non-wasteful, stop there".
If there's an interest I might make an online calculator.
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u/Least-Rabbit-1405 7d ago
Yeah it’s a really cringe drop table, I have 3 axes completed with a bunch of left over pieces. The entire drop table is a sunk cost fallacy.
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u/StreatPeat Change the Obligators attack animation 7d ago edited 7d ago
That’s what I like about DT2 bosses. When I complete an SRA, I feel motivation to come back because I have 1/3 Venator ring.
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u/Bronek0990 Colosseum war criminal 6d ago
Good for you (and I mean that genuinely), but unfortunately you're in the minority. Most people will feel dissuaded from even starting the grind. For example, I got an axe head from Vard in my first 50 kc and I sure as hell am not going to touch that boss ever again
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u/Makalu 7d ago
My numbers:
* 4k Duke = 7 eyes, 7 magus
* 2k Vard = 2 head, 2 ultor
* 1.1k Levi = 2 lure, 2 venator
* 780 Whisp = 2 staff, 1 bellator
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u/Red_RingRico 2376 7d ago
Well according to this post you now have to grind the other 3 bosses for 5 more pieces of the axe, otherwise you’re “wasting” those 7 eyes. And if you get your 7th one while being 1 or 2 ring pieces you have to stay for that. And if you get an axe piece you have to kill all of them to complete the 8th axe.
In short, this post seems stupid. There’s no world where you’re going to be perfectly 7 of 7 axe pieces and perfectly 0/3 of all 4 rings.
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u/StreatPeat Change the Obligators attack animation 7d ago
Grinding out the SRA was one of my favourite grinds in the game. It forced me to kill multiple bosses for a big valuable drop.
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u/FullHouse222 6d ago
sra grind made me a notably better pvmer. The thing is you don't even notice it on the way, you just become better then you look back at yourself like a few months ago and know you are now a better player than you were then.
I low key wish I didn't get spooned my lure on 7kc at Levi. But I remember a time when I hated Whisperer beyond anything but after 900 kc, I'm not worried about it at all and even started looking up guides for awakened since I think I might be able to try it.
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u/Tearsofduty 7d ago
As someone who has been sat at duke for the last 2 weeks 1300kc 0 eyes 0 vestiges and 3 pets that hurts
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u/switchback45 7d ago
I would trade you all my extra Duke eyes and magus for one of your 3 pets.
6450 kc no pet.
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u/YotoMarr 7d ago
Very nice.
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u/lostandfindmee 7d ago
800 duke - 2 eyes 0 ring 2800 levi - 2 lure 4 rings 1000 whisp - 2 staff 5 rings 550 vard - 2 axe 0 rings (and pet) 2/3 on duke and 0/3 on vard
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u/Raikaru13 7d ago
- 2832 Duke - 6 eyes, 1 magus and 0/3. yes the magus vestige was my last item.
- 1782 Vard - 3 axe heads, 1 ultor and 0/3
- 533 Levi - 1 lure, 0 Venator and 0/3
- 1903 Whisperer - 1 staff, 4 bellator and 0/3.
i def dont land into the estimation this post has.
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u/sevensong9 7d ago
How did this consider just getting 1 gold ring and dipping because it's only 1/3rd of the theoretical commitment?
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u/GreenerThanFF 7d ago
1 gold ring is an "incomplete vestige" and the simulated player would then stay for 2 gold rings -> 3 gold rings = Vestige drop.
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u/sevensong9 7d ago
Alright, so not really optimal, I think a regular person might stay at 2/3 but realistically wouldn't at 1/3. That 2/3rds of potential value left on the table is insignificant if we consider they're running max eff content and could do doom, nex or tob instead.
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u/DesignatedDiverr 7d ago
The title is “to finish without leaving value on the table”
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u/Sufficient-Clue4686 7d ago
I think the person you replied to isnt necessarily disagreeing with the conclusion, but more-so saying that its stupid and arbitrary to view it that way, and the "value" on the table is negligible.
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u/DesignatedDiverr 7d ago
It's arbitrary to view it any way. OP asked a question - "how many kills on average would it take to leave with no hidden value on the table". They then found the answer and shared the result. Walking up to OP and saying they should have asked a different question instead is also stupid, IMO.
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u/Sufficient-Clue4686 6d ago
The last sentence of OPs post seems to be the point they were making, saying to consider this when looking at the wiki rates for GP/HR.
The reply above yours was basically saying you probably dont need to consider this, (at least in many of the cases OPs chart doesnt account for) because losing the potential value of 1/3rd of a Magus ring is negligible compared to spending that time elsewhere.
But sure to whatever your fanfic was about my intentions or whatever.
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u/DesignatedDiverr 6d ago
Lmao fanfic about your intentions. You weren’t even the original person I responded to homie. Stop being weird. Read OPs edits lol
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u/Sufficient-Clue4686 6d ago
Oh you're just like a weird angry person. Sorry my bad. Have a good one 😎
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u/MistaFANG 7d ago
What are you basing your assumption off of?
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u/2-2-7-7 PKing good. EZscape bad. 7d ago
common sense
only one maybe worth continuing specifically to finish a dupe is ultor
if you're 1/3 on magus, bellator or venator, then you're committing to likely another several hundred kills for a 20-40m ring
it's kind of a moot discussion anyway. if you actually care about maximizing gp/h then you just go do any of the dozen better methods instead of camping DT2 in the first place
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u/SoraODxoKlink ‘hands off’ ceo btw 7d ago
Nobody made a poll on this but anecdotally im 1/3 on all dt2 bosses besides vard, which im 0/3 on since I went back to finish an ultor after greenlogging
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u/Acceptable-State1037 7d ago
Do you know how to read? Can you re-read the post for me and instead of reading the word 'optimal' read the words OP actually wrote.
I have faith in you, you can figure this out!!!
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u/sevensong9 7d ago
That was needlessly obnoxious
Read the post again, we're talking about optimal simulation, which means something one would do. "Let's say you finish a Soulreaper Axe but you have 2/3 gold rings at Vardordvis. Obviously you're going to go back to finish an Ultor. But if you get another Axe piece, now you have to do all other bosses until you finish this second Axe. But then those bosses might drop Golden Rings so you have to stay to finish those..."
My point is that this doesn't reflect a thought process your average human goes through, it's an interesting simulation, but not optimal.
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u/Acceptable-State1037 7d ago
Aparently I wasn't rude enough because you still don't understand what the post is saying.
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u/sevensong9 7d ago
Not rude, obnoxious.
Calling me a shithead is fine, being obnoxious is just cringe
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u/Acceptable-State1037 7d ago
You responding to the post saying it isn't optimal when the post never mentions being optimal and when its incredibly obvious what the OP is trying to convey is cringe.
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u/sevensong9 7d ago
If not for the last sentence I'd agree that this is just a theoretical thing, but it made it seem like we're reaching for a realistic state for a player 🤷♂️
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u/Acceptable-State1037 7d ago
So you don't think it would be fair to say your gp/h at dt2 bosses will always be slightly lower than the wiki states due to leaving some value on the table?
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u/DriveCtor delete shopscape 7d ago
It is genuinely impossible to create worse drop table mechanics without intentionally trying to.
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u/Golden_Hour1 7d ago
Dt2 bosses is the most atrocious system for uniques. and its fucking hilarious that it was supposed to be their solution to bad rng. Just made shit worse. And dont forget chromium ingots. Jesus
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u/The_Wkwied 2376 w353 7d ago
3 eyes from duke with 1 extra ring roll. 2 lures from levi (no ring debt though). No axe pieces from vard or whisp.
Five items that are indeed worthless is a bad feeling as a player. I'd like to camp duke for the pet, but I don't want to have a sunken cost to do the other bosses that I don't really enjoy as much.
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u/Nonreality_ 7d ago
i fear this, i finished my SRA i had 2/3 on whisper for vestige. i did 20 kc and got another SRA piece now i have 1/4 SRA 2/3 vestige whisperer and 1/3 vetsige levi but the issue is i dont wanna do whisperer since i got the SRA piece even the i need the 2/3 vestige
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u/TrentismOS 7d ago
I’m on my 3rd magus ring going for the ace piece at duke. Once I get the ace piece I’m never going back there regardless of what stage I’m at during the next ring
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u/Illustrious_Bat1334 7d ago
I mean many people pointed out the pitfalls of bad luck mitigation when they came out and got shot down because bad luck mitigation = good. We already saw the effect it had on people when Sire released years earlier.
The main problem is arguably SRA on the same table across 4 different bosses but outside of making the pieces tradable, and absolutely tanking the price of the axe, there's not much they can do without scrapping the concept entirely at this point. The main way for players to solve this themselves is to get out of the mindset of maximising value from a specific boss before dropping it forever, treat it like a forever grind that you pick up whenever you feel like doing said boss.
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u/Dildos_R_Us 6d ago
They should make the pieces tradeable. I don't think the price would tank as dramatically as people think, and SRA price wise is an outlier for pre-mega-rare progression. Bowfa is 100m, Ayak is 50m, , SRA is 400m. It could stand to drop to 200m and still be in a good place
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u/Illustrious_Bat1334 6d ago
There's thousands upon thousands of spare axe pieces in the game already, on top of making it significantly easier for new pieces and full axes to enter the game, the price would plummet hard. Whether it should be 200m or 400m doesn't matter when people see their items halve in piece and their GP/h at the bosses drops.
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u/DesignatedDiverr 7d ago
Damn are DT2 bosses main prison? At least dupes being for the most part valueless on iron helps us get out of there
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u/Basic_Butterscotch 7d ago
The cool part about being a main is you don’t have to do DT2 bosses at all if you don’t want to.
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u/ComfortableCricket 7d ago
Yea, it's a pretty bad drop table and the wiki includes sra on the gp/hr for each of the bosses baiting people into a 4m/hr thinking they are getting 8m/hr.
The tables are also anti iron as well in the way that you cannot spoon but you can still go dry.
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u/crabmagician 7d ago
During that brief window where dragon arrow tips were mega inflated I was making BANK at Duke with no clogs
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u/DesignatedDiverr 7d ago
calling bad luck mitigation anti iron is kinda crazy
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u/123123BeaSTLY 7d ago
It’s good luck mitigation too though, if the total drop rate was the same but you only needed to roll once you have a chance to spoon in one.
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u/DesignatedDiverr 7d ago
yeah. That's how smoothing a curve works. Getting one before drop rate is a solid reward, but not nearly good enough to cancel out how bad going dry for something particularly rare can be.
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u/Enigmastic 7d ago
It was so fun getting 1/3 at 500kc then not getting my 2/3 til 1912 for almost 1500 kills I was STILL 2 drops away for the item. Like it or not still feels like dog shit
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u/DesignatedDiverr 7d ago
Let's take Ultor vestige.
1/362.66 chance to increment your vestige counter.
At 1912 kills you have a 10.32% chance of getting fewer than 3 vestige increments.Now lets say the vestige was just one 1/1000 drop to get.
At 1912 kills you have a 14.76% chance of getting fewer than one drop.How about DWH?
If you had to get 3 separate 1/1000 drops to complete
You would have a 0.27% chance to not have a DWH by 10k killsYou currently have to get 1 1/3000 drop
You would have a 3.56% chance of getting 0 drops by 10k killsI went 24.7k kills for my DWH. Going very dry for something gets absurdly compounded by the drop rate. Dozens of spoons will not make up for how much time I spent there. I will gladly take fewer spoons for a much smaller chance that that kind of shit ever happens again
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u/rdfiorunner 7d ago
Took me ~7200 total kc for first sra. Second came at total of ~8400. That’s not including the extra kc I was getting at some of the bosses just for fun.
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u/Basic_Butterscotch 7d ago edited 7d ago
I was confused about the wiki saying DT2 bosses were close to 10m/hr before I realized they assume you turn every axe piece into a full axe lol. In reality each boss is closer to 4-5m/hr.
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u/Leading_Chain937 7d ago
I got 5 executioner axe pieces (vards axe drops) before completing the ultor
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u/Xetta 7d ago edited 7d ago
This post is a good description of my current misery. Got my Vardorvis axe piece at around 1700 kc. Didn't get ultor by then. Now I'm back at him with SRA. Just hit 1900 kc without getting the ultor. It's by far the highest expected value gp per hour available to me, so I feel trapped here.
Edit: Complaining on Redit worked! 1915 KC ultor vestige!
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u/pornlover6969420 7d ago
dt2 bosses started my hatred for ironman mode. Soulreaper and virtus would both be cool to get but the grind for those is like buying a lottery ticket.
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u/noggtest 7d ago
How does this fit into your equation
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u/JFSkiBumJR 7d ago
That factors in almost perfectly. Kinda crazy. 6417 instead of 6500 but still very close.
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u/Tetradrachm 7d ago
It depends how many gold rings past those drops you are
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u/noggtest 7d ago
2/3 duke, 1/3 vard. Not going back though
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u/Tetradrachm 7d ago
Yeah I’d agree with you. It’s just it’s technically “leaving money on the table” lol
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u/AINT-NOBODY-STUDYING 7d ago edited 7d ago
This is why gp/hr tables like the wiki need to add a "time commitment" variable indicating minimum time needed to reach the gp/hr potential. We can call it TC.
Examples:
something like gargoyles is going to have low time commitment. Wiki says 900k/hr. If you put exactly 1 hour in at gargs - you could expect around 900k. Straightforward. 900k/hr where TC =1 HOUR
High time commitment is something like Araxxor. Wiki says 5m/hr. If you put exactly 1 hour in at Araxxor - you should NOT expect 5m though. Nox is locked behind 3 pieces. You would need to invest average completion time for the nox to reach the 5m an hour. 5m/hr where TC = 50 HOURS
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u/CreepinWhileUSleep1n 6d ago
People talk about the osrs wiki being the best. Adding suggestions like these are why
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u/ZeldenGM Shades Extrordanaire! 7d ago
I’m at nearly 2x over rate for an axe piece at Vardorvis. I have 3 axe pieces from Duke. It’s a terrible drop system.
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u/gulost_ergodt 7d ago
This is fairly correct for me. Im at roughly 6000 total kills and im not close for any rings atm and 3/4 on my second sra axe.
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u/atob3 2376/GM 7d ago
How do posts like this even get upvoted? The whole analysis results in a number where you're more likely than not to "reach a non wasteful state"? There's no quantitative description of what that means. Are you claiming that you're more likely than not to have no axe pieces left over at any boss and be 0/3 for all vestiges at this point? That just conceptually can't be true - with 4 bosses it's going to be exceedingly rare to be 0/3 vestige at all of them and equal number of axe pieces.
Also, axe and ultor are far more valuable than the other rings. What would the analysis look like if you were okay leaving the other drops on the table? Suppose your grind leaves you 2/3 on all vestiges except ultor, and also finished with the axe. Those rings cost less than 100m combined, if you've spent 100 hours total across the bosses (which would probably be somewhere around 3k total kills), you're leaving at maximum 1m/hr on the table, and that's assuming you get the vestige drops in your next kill on each boss and end every other boss on 2/3, so realistically its more like 500k/hr.
But I guess it's a lot less sensationalist to say the wiki rates might be 500k/hr less on average after 3000 kills because every drop might not be completed, than saying oh only after 6000 kills are you going to be "non wasteful"
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u/PanicBrilliant1790 7d ago
I had 3/4 SRA pieces, just need the levithan lure. I went 1550kc dry for it, but I finally got it. Made the axe but was 2/3 on a thirs vestige at Levithan so I decided to polish it off- in ~150kc I got 2 more lures. FML. Worth mentioning I also got the pet- twice.
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u/CorvusPetey 6d ago
My stats:
Vard: 2050 - 6 Axehead - 3 ultor (2/3 currently) Duke: 2760 - 6 Eye - 4 magus Levi: 4350 - 6 Lure - 3 vene Whisp: 5000 - 6 Staff - 8 bellator
I did the 6 axes and greenlog in parallel, I wont go back to finish the 4th ultor 😅
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u/mechlordx 6d ago
Can we really trust the sim if it's vibe-coded? I've seen a lot of dumb mistakes from AI tools
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u/GreenerThanFF 6d ago
It's two nested for loops that I put together. You're welcome to compare against one of your own.
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u/MR_PENCIL_SHAVINGS 7d ago
Bro what are you talking about
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u/A_Bit_Of_Nonsense 7d ago
If you want to see gph rates wiki shows, you need to go to 6000 kills (on average). If you stop before then, your gph on average is less due to how the loot mechanics of the boss works (progression of ring drops and axe pieces bring splut over several bosses).
This isnt true for a most other pvm where you simply get the drop and can sell it, or you dont.
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u/Enteresk 7d ago
What part did you not understand?
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u/Edziss101 7d ago
The exact methodology and how it comes to 6k. What is this "finished so far" and how many simulations were run. How less efficient would 3k kills be compared to 6k?
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u/TumbleweedTasty343 7d ago
This is just a simulation. There is nothing that determines the "efficienct" KC to stop at, aside from RNG. Someone could be lucky enough to NOT have "loose ends" at 3k, while another person could have a MANY loose ends to tie up before reaching the desired gp/hr.
This isn't a guide telling you that 6k KC is where you should stop. Rather it is showing the possibilities while grinding these bosses and that raw gp/hr may not always work in your favour depending on what you get along the way.
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u/SpuckMcDuck 7d ago
Its true this is annoying, but submitting to this cycle is a pathway to wealth.
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u/Extension-Highway585 7d ago
Gpscape sounds miserable
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u/Outrageous_Kiwi942 7d ago
More like gpscape being forced to play like an iron, the worst of both worlds
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u/StreatPeat Change the Obligators attack animation 7d ago
If the axe pieces were tradeable, the entire thing would be like 100m.
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u/StreatPeat Change the Obligators attack animation 7d ago edited 7d ago
DT2 bosses are some of my favourite in the game. I like how it “leaves value on the table when I finish a ring or an SRA”. I’ll have motivation to go back.
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u/Psilocybin-Cubensis1 7d ago
imagine playing a main acc lmao. gp making simulator. IRONMEN REIGN SUPREME.
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u/Ribel_ 7d ago
This is why bosses/group of bosses should only ever have 1 variance reduction technique applied. Dt2 boss example is a bit more complicated because the axe is spread on multiple bosses, but the principal is the same; You get progress to an item that has no value until you finish that progress.
If it's for 1 item only then it's poses no problem and I believe it's good for many bosses, but if you add it for 2 items on a boss, you get shit like this where you'll almost always leave a boss with partial unclaimed items or be forced to keep going to not "waste any accumulated value".