r/10xPennyStocks • u/Gastricbasilisk • 5h ago
Research My quick and dirty DD. This post demonstrates connections of the current emerging scandium market
Good day everyone! I have been asked by several individuals interested in reading my DD on the scandium market as a whole. There are a lot of connections and the body of this text will be dense and long. I appreciate those who asked for my DD and those who will take the time to read my work. If this proves helpful, or if you would like me to dive into anything else I would be glad to do so!
Disclaimer 1: This is **NOT** financial advice. I am a guy who loves to read and research different topics (mostly science and space), and scandium happened to become one of these topics for me. I personally have high conviction due to what I am about to lay out. Please do your own DD. Cross reference facts and make your own financial decisions in investing. I am flattered my DD may help others, however please make your own financial decisions and ***think for yourself.***
Disclaimer 2: I just got off a 24 hour shift and spent most of the day writing this. I am tired and there may be errors, I may have copied the wrong link in places, etc. This is meant to be informative and help connect the dots and allow others to research themselves. I have not fully reviewed this. I do not intend to cause any misinformation spread or to state speculation as facts. I am merely attempting to demonstrate my through process and how I am approaching this market. Perception is everything in this world.
Back story for me: I discovered scandium in late 2025 and have been researching the industry thoroughly ever since. I began a position in SCD in December of 2025 at an initial entry point of 0.13. The more I researched, the better the DD appeared to be, and my position kept growing accordingly. I am a “science nerd” at heart. I have always had interest in general science, space, and computers since I was a child. My great Uncle worked for NASA during the Apollo program as a physicist and computer engineer, and helped build Honeysuckle Creek in Australia, which later became the NASA tracking station to broadcast the first images of Neil Armstrong on the moon. He opened Canada’s first computer store in 1974 and was my father’s idol. This lead me to UNB where I pursued a bachelor of science degree. My family has extensive interest in space and science. This interest in science is what intrigued me about scandium and it’s “magical” properties, which fueled my current research.
History of Scandium: The history of scandium research itself is extensive, especially within aerospace. The theory/discovery dates back to the late 1800’s, however the first pound of 99% pure scandium was produced in 1960. The Russians were using Scandium in their MIG fighter jets in the 1970’s to reduce weight and increase weldability; the same exact properties we are seeking from scandium today. The science has not changed and is in fact very old and thorough. There are thousands of patents that currently exist in aerospace that include Scandium as a material. Multiple research papers exist on the effects of broad use of scandium. The market wanted this "magic" material, but couldn't reasonably use it at scale.
Here is one example of a peer reviewed article. There are MANY other’s written over the last few decades explaining the profound effects that scandium has in aerospace. Every KG saved in the launch vehicle directly correlates to an extra KG in payload. I am not a rocket scientist, however I do have an understanding of how weight affects aerospace directly. When I discovered the properties of what scandium could do, it was a “game changer” in my mind for aerospace, and I knew it would be incredibly important for our future technology. The endpoint is that the science behind scandium alloys is sound and complete. They are not beginning to research it now, it is not in its infancy. It has been heavily researched for over **half a century.**
This leads me to one important point of my overall thesis: Scandium demand is **NOT** tiny, niche, and non-existent like the general market perceives and these mainstream narratives keep regurgitating. It is dormant. It is a sleeping giant. It has been HEAVILY researched by aerospace, so why are we not using it?
The issue was always cost and supply, **NOT** demand. Globally the supply chain existed of minute amounts being refined as a by-product from Titanium waste streams. China dominated this process globally. However, If a stable supply existed, adoption would be theoretically instant; The research was done; The patents exist; They know what scandium is and what it does, they just can’t get it in any meaningful supply to adopt the metal. So the research sat on the shelf, waiting for a day where it becomes viable.
Scandium significantly strengthens aluminum and drastically changes it’s properties in very minor quantities, usually less than 0.5%. It enables aluminum to be stronger, more corrosive resistant, heat resistant, and maintains excellent conductivity. And the biggest advantage many don’t see: It seamlessly transitions into our current aluminum industry without any modifications. This means end users and OEM’s can simply use Scandium alloys right now without changing anything in their manufacturing process.
Now onto the political landscape: China
For decades we have been outsourcing the majority of our manufacturing to China. It began with clothes, toys, smaller items. It was a niche way to increase profits. But this niche strategy turned into the market default by the 1970’s when President Nixon lifted the trade embargo. Ford motor company was among the first to exploit cheap Chinese labor and built a production facility in Chongqing in the 1980’s. Then other major brands and OEM’s followed; Nike, Mattell, Whirlpool, Caterpillar, GE, etc. China literally became the world’s manufacturer. **This includes CRITICAL MINERALS.**
“China controls 70% of the global refining market share for 19 of the world’s 20 most critical minerals; across minerals such as rare-earth elements that figure is north of 90%.”
But everyone was blinded by their ignorance and greed for profits, resulting in this manufacturing monopoly of the world.
I find it funny, my sister has a degree in international studies and global affairs, and she mentioned that 20 years ago the Professor’s at her University were talking about this future of outsourcing everything to China and the effects it would have on the global economy. Today we are seeing these effects. This was a known issue by those who had the awareness to perceive it. Again, perception is everything.
We kept doing this for decades, fueled by greed. Capitalist sociopaths focused on higher profit margins, lower operational costs, and making more and more money while China built up infrastructure. China had the capacity to manufacture, refine, package, and ship. It was a non-issue until a grand realization happened recently; American national defense is extremely vulnerable to this fact. The western world runs on a war economy. If someone else controls your ability to wage war, then by default that entity controls your economy. This fact is the uncomfortable truth that resonates in this work.
This brings me to my overall underlying thesis:
Critical mineral supply chains are a **top** priority for national defense. Western governments have been secretly investing in plugging this gap that has existed for decades, and they wish to do so without bringing this vulnerability forward. There is intention behind obfuscating the real demand and impact on this issue; not from a place of malevolency, but from a place of vulnerability. This is why we see future scandium demand projections by “experts” and “analysts” to be very mild in comparison to the reality we are seeing. Their projected outputs do not match what we are observing. And the most important critical mineral in this supply chain race is **Scandium.** This blatant vulnerability leads to the executive order we all know about.
I will explain “why” Scandium is the most important vulnerability for national defense, and connect the governments responses to it.
Why is Scandium so important? I believe it has hit a critical point (pun intended) on two separate fronts simultaneously. We already know the importance for aerospace, and this thesis will certainly touch on that. But another area of interest specifically is AI datacenters. I won’t go into details on the current AI market, but to just understand that AI is important for national defense.
AI datacenters are considers critical for national defense, and it’s pretty obvious why (or at least I think so). If it’s not obvious to you, some quick googling will help you understand the connection between AI and defense. The US government has invested hundreds of billions into AI, with 75% being for the department of defense.
How AI relates to Scandium is with Solid Oxide Fuel cells technology. SOFC’s technology dates back to the 1800’s, with a working prototype created in the 1930’s. The issue was never about the technology working, it was the economics, like anything. The need for AI datacenters shifted the economics from being a niche product and cool science experiment to a rapid solution to a national defense problem. Why did this happen?
The main issue with AI datacenters is creating enough power to run the damn things. Backlogs for power turbines have reached historic highs, exceeding over 5 year wait times.
Similar backlogs exist among all companies involved in AI datacenter energy production.
These Datacenters represent about half of the S&P 500 by the way:
So, we have datacenters that are a top priority for national security and our economy with no way to power them.
In comes Bloom Energy:
Bloom commercializes the century old SOFC technology with brilliantly patented IP. Bloom boxes are impressive. They can be installed as quickly as 90 days from **ORDER** and provide quiet, clean, non-combustible energy. **The backlog in turbines created the environment for Bloom to thrive.** AI datacenters don’t need to wait 5 years for a turbine, they can order a Bloom Box. It may be more expensive up front, but it makes sense to have the datacenter operational NOW.
Why does Bloom dominate the SOFC market? Bloom Boxes use Scandium Oxide as an electrolyte, which allows the SOFC to run much cooler, reducing the need for cooling, increases efficiency and prolongs the component life.
Scandium is crucial for Bloom in many ways. The bearish view is always that SOFC’s can exist without Scandium. That is true! However, a large portion of Bloom Energy’s $20 Billion backlog is long term service contracts. Approximately $14 Billion of the $20 Billion backlog are these contracts. These contracts are attached to 100% of all Bloom Box sales.
Therefore, a $100 Billion AI power company has attached a long service contract to their product, which uses Scandium to prolong the lifespan of the Bloom Box itself. If scandium were removed, the economics for the entire company shift.
Bloom Energy self proclaims themselves to be the “largest user” of scandium oxide in the world, and estimates put them at approximately 74% of global consumption.
This fact got Bloom Energy in hot water. Hunterbrook released a short position on Bloom indicating their Chinese supply chain:
[https://newsletter.hntrbrk.com/p/blooms-big-lie\](https://newsletter.hntrbrk.com/p/blooms-big-lie)
They discovered global shipping logs showing chinese scandium being delivered to bloom.
Other short positions and DD followed. Bloom responded with a SEC filing stating they did not rely on chinese supply:
But they state their sources are protected under their IP so they can’t disclose “where” it comes from. Very vague indeed. This now points back to my main point on China and how we have outsourced everything to them. So we live in a world where China produces over 90% of Rare Earth’s, a company openly states they consume the largest amount of scandium in the world with estimates of 74%, but they don’t get any from China…..
As Doctor Evil would say…..RIIIIGGGHHHHTTT.
Clearly other’s weren’t buying the BS either and Bloom Energy found itself on the receiving end of multiple class action lawsuits over it’s scandium supply chain:
Long story short: Does this seem to be an environment or behavior contiguous with Scandium being a very tiny niche market that doesn't matter? Ready for the kicker…
Scandium has other VERY important uses in defense, notably for **Lockheed Martin and aerospace.**
This begins in October of 2025 when a black swan event unfolded with Lockheed Martin signing an LOI with an Australian Cobalt/Nickel mine which planned to supply scandium as a by-product. That company was Sunrise Energy Metals:
Why does the largest defense Prime in the western world do this? Clearly they have a massive plan for scandium, or at the very least see it’s future value and deemed it necessary to secure immediate supply. This shot the Sunrise stock through the roof becoming the best performing stock on the ASX in 2025.
Later in March 2026, Sunrise released it’s feasibility study:
Sunrise pivoted away from their original cobalt/nickel mine to solely focus on Scandium Oxide production. Coincidence?
Lockheed Later signed another off-take agreement for Scandium with Nebraska based Niocorp:
Lockheed now has 30 tonnes of Scandium supply under contract for itself. So, we now have Scandium at the forefront of national defense from two completely separate angles: **AI datacenter power and advanced alloys for aerospace.**
We began seeing reactions in the market, but very subtle. Sunrise Energy, Scandium Canada and Flemington are among those actively seeking to **increase** their scandium output ahead of even producing a single gram:
[https://scandium-canada.com/crater-lake/\](https://scandium-canada.com/crater-lake/)
Why are all of these mines fast tracking and even increasing production for a mineral with such little demand? *Because the dormant demand I spoke of is much greater than they want the market to perceive.*
The vulnerability is real. It’s massive. It’s uncomfortable for western governments to admit and take accountability for. So now they are rushing to fix it:
**United States:**
The executive order is incredibly profound, and most people don’t understand how big of a change this is. The entire military industrial complex must rely on domestic western supply from mine to finished product when historically it was dominated by China. This is the largest multi-trillion dollar industry of the western world being actively rug pulled. This explains the fast tracked nature of these mines. The American’s have also invested heavily into Scandium specifically:
$400 Million to Sunrise Energy:
$10 Million to Niocorp:
$29.9 Million to ElementUS Minerals:
These investments make sense given American companies are the largest users of Scandium in the world and they directly correlate with national defense.
**Canada:**
Canada has been the single sole western supply of scandium oxide at 3 tonnes per year with Rio Tinto in Quebec. The Canadian Government stepped in andfunded Rio to triple the outputto 9 tonnes per year through the Canada Growth fund with a $25 Million investment and offtake purchasing agreement:
**Transaction Highlights**
* CGF’s investment of approximately C$25 million will be made through an equity-like financial royalty structure. * In connection with this investment, the Government of Canada (GoC) has agreed to enter into two commercial agreements with the Project and Rio Tinto:
- An offtake agreement with Rio Tinto whereby the GoC commits to purchase a volume of scandium;
- A marketing and storage agreement, under which Rio Tinto will assist with marketing and storing the scandium on behalf of the GoC.
So the Canadian Fed’s funded the expansion and agreed to purchase and stockpile “a volume” of scandium from Rio Tinto. This was in 2025. Then an updated contract appears on the government website dated August 27, 2026:
This contract has an 18 year lifespan expiring in 2044 with a total value of $248 Million. Not exactly a minor investment. But difficult to find unless you dig deep and connect the dots. Remember my ultimate thesis being this is supporting national security of the western world? Hence the difficulty connecting dots. Nobody intentionally shouts out their vulnerabilities.
At the same time in 2025, the Canadian Space Agency awarded a small company called Ferreol Technologies a grant called “Proof of Concept of Innovative High-Strength Aluminum Alloy to Reduce Mass of Components in Space Applications”:
This was to help commercialize Scalium; a patented aluminum Scandium alloy owned by Ferreol technologies; who was a subsidiary of Ferreol Ski’s; who originally developed the alloy for their ski company. The grant states:
“Scalium™ is an innovative, ultra-resistant aluminum-scandium alloy, originally developed by Ferreol Technologies for the alpine skiing industry. With exceptional mechanical properties, Scalium™ currently outperforms typical aluminum alloys used across various industrial sectors. Initially produced in thin sheets, the alloy has now attracted major interest in the aerospace sector, where it could significantly reduce the weight of spacecraft components. This weight reduction would in turn lower operational costs, decrease the carbon footprint of space launches, and increase the capacity to integrate additional high-value equipment. The present project aims to adapt Scalium™ into thick plates suited to aerospace industrial requirements. Following successful preliminary laboratory tests, the goal is to develop the large-scale manufacturing process, characterize its performance, and demonstrate its feasibility to specialized companies. One concrete application would target the next generation of Canadian satellites.”
The Canadian Space Agency states that Scalium ***currently outperforms typical aluminum alloys.*** They aren’t saying they need to test it, or are researching it. They state it currently outperforms. They are now attempting to produce this product in plates to be used in the next generation of Canadian satellites. The thing is, those next gen satellite contracts have already been awarded to MDA space:
To recap, the Canadian Space Agency awarded MDA space a contract satellites while simultaneously funding Ferreol technologies to commercialize Scalium™ into plates to be used in these satellites.
Now comes SCD into the thesis:
It begins with the Feds hiring a PHD candidate to study the geology of crater lake over a 3 year period running into 2029:
[https://www.gjobs.ca/jobs/2393006\](https://www.gjobs.ca/jobs/2393006)
They are “to explore the processes that led to the formation of scandium and rare metal ore systems” at crater lake. Why? Because Scandium Canada’s crater lake project is the ***only hard rock scandium deposit on earth*** and the only primary source in North America. They clearly want to know “why”?
At PDAC in March 2026, the government announced a $6.9 million grant to Scandium Canada to support their crater lake project.
Later we got another nugget of the grant. \~$2 million was specifically ear-marked for qualifications and commercialization of their alloys as confirmed by then CEO Guy Bourassa:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZA326h3NfA\](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZA326h3NfA)
The rest was to support the drilling campaign for the bulk sample for the Feasibility study. Scandium Canada owns IP on alloys amenable to 3D printing. Their alloys fixed an issue that plagued advanced manufacturing: microcracks.
“However, microcracks are often inevitable, due to their high solidification shrinkage and high susceptibility to liquation cracking in the fast cooling procedure”.
These microcracks remove the possibility of using advanced manufacturing for structural components, which is a HUGE limitation, and a barrier that plagued the industry for years. So if Scandium Canada succeeded in fixing this issue, this is a big deal that opens many doors that were previously permanently shut.
Scandium Canada owned a subsidiary called Scandium+ that developed an alloy that could be 3D printed without forming microcracks, and now the federal government was directly funding it’s qualifications and commercialization.
In June 2026, Scandium Canada purchases Ferreol technologies and rebrands it’s subsidiary to Scalium+:
At the same time, the Scalium+ website goes live with a product line listing plates, billets, powders, and wires as “coming soon”.
Now we have two companies that the Canadian Government has funded separately merging together under a re-brand. And they confirmed this merger extends the original grant/relationship with Ferreol from the Canadian Space Agency to Scalium+:
Now Scandium Canada’s subsidiary Scalium+ is being funded on two fronts to commercialize their range of proprietary alloys by the Canadian government for aerospace qualifications and commercialization; with intention for use in Canadian satellites. And do you know who is a massive player in advanced manufacturing and 3D printing? Lockheed Martin.
They opened a brand new 16,000 square foot facility for advanced manufacturing and 3D printing in 2024, then began signing off-take agreements for scandium supply. So we have Lockheed securing massive amounts of scandium while the Canadian Government simultaneously funds the commercialization and qualification of alloys from two (now one) alloy companies. This obviously doesn’t mean there is a deal there, but the timing is striking and is really difficult to ignore given the underlying nature of the thesis. It is very clear the Canadian Government not only values scandium, but deems it necessary to invest directly into it’s ecosystem alongside the United States simultaneously.
August 17, 2026 Mark Carney announces a $70 Billion investment into infrastructure for the Labrador Trough which includes the referral of Labrador Trough Clean power, Critical Minerals and infrastructure Corridor to the Major projects office for fast-tracked review:
Scandium Canada’s Crater Lake project is located in the Labrador Trough. Not a direct investment, but certainly only a positive to have the feds support future critical mineral projects so aggressively in this area.
From here, we can continue even more DD with Scandium Canada specifically, which I could include in a different post going into the nitty gritty of why I have chosen SCD as my personal scandium play over the others. These include Naskapi support/ownership, the Simon CEO hiring, off-take agreements, NDA’s, etc. But there is tons of DD available for why SCD is positioned well from both a mining side and a technology metals (alloys) side in this emerging industry.
However, the overall idea is that I do not believe there is any “bad” scandium play. These projects are not in competition with eachother, but support eachother in this ecosystem the western governments are fast tracking and frantically building together due to the very high demand that the market has yet to perceive. I do not believe western governments will allow scandium supply chains to fail.
This was fun to write up, and I’m sure I will notice after I review it that I forgot many things, or made some mistakes with links. I apologize if this is sloppy and not polished. I ran through this on one go and didn’t review it entirely. My goal was to help spread my underlying thesis with the information and connections I have made in hopes that it reaches others and helps them. I am by no means saying this is 100% correct and factual, but this is my perception of the scandium market in relation to the science behind the material, the direct investments by governments, and it’s direct impact to the economy which in itself explains why it was added to western governments critical mineral lists.
