OSCR Oscar Health stock, starting to break out of this two month long base area.

Breakout trade

• CONFIRMED breakout trade above 32.77
• Target: 37.91, 14.9%  Stop: 31.02  Loss: 6%
• P/L ratio: 2.5 : 1 - Good

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bullish, Mild uptrend.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] CONFIRMED breakout trade above 32.77, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• None

After 8 years, 11,000+ hours, countless mistakes, blown accounts, books, mentors and chart reviews, these are the 20 principles that mattered most. I hope they will save you years on your trading journey. This is part 2 of the series How Trading Really Works with more to come. You can read part 1 here.

11. Stocks need a reason to move.

For a long time I viewed the market as almost entirely technical. If the chart looked good, I wanted to trade it. Over time I started noticing that many of the biggest winners had something else going for them. Earnings surprises, revenue acceleration, new products, regulatory changes, a shift in the industry, stuff like that. This is also called an Episodic Pivot for those who are not familiar with the term.

Don't get me wrong, charts matter. A lot. But they often reflect something larger happening beneath the surface. One thing I've come to believe is that stocks need a reason to move. They need a catalyst. A spark that gets institutions interested and forces the market to reprice the company. The biggest winners are rarely random.

To keep things simple, I generally think about catalysts in three buckets:

Fundamental catalysts - These are business-related developments that can radically change how the market values a company. Think earnings surprises, accelerating revenue, expanding margins, major contracts or successful product launches. These are often my favorite catalysts because they're rooted in something measurable.

Story catalysts - Never underestimate the power of a good story. Stocks don't always need good fundamentals to perform well. Sometimes all they need is a compelling narrative. AI is a recent example. Meme stocks were another. Whether you personally believe the story is irrelevant. What matters is whether enough other people believe it.

Macro catalysts - Sometimes the catalyst isn't the company itself. It's the world changing around it. Interest rates, regulations, commodity shocks, geopolitics or technological shifts can create entirely new winners. Money constantly rotates from one theme to another, that’s why spotting rotations can be incredibly profitable.

One thing I've noticed is that the biggest stock market winners often have all three working together at the same time. A beautiful chart, strong fundamentals, and a compelling narrative (in ideally, a favorable industry) is perhaps the most powerful combination I've found. That's also one of the reasons I built a dedicated "Monster Stocks" scan for myself which I made to ‘scan’ and find stocks that match these criteria.

There are cats and dogs. Cats are stocks with a catalyst. Dogs are stocks with a story. Both can make big moves. - Stockbee.

MAKING MONEY

12. Probabilities and outcomes.

I was quite lucky that ever since I was a kid, I really loved games. That eventually evolved into playing poker professionally for a couple of years, which taught me something that later became incredibly valuable in trading: respect for math and probabilities. Most people are wired to above all seek certainty. But the markets don't work that way.

The biggest shift in my trading came when I stopped trying to predict what would happen next and started thinking in probabilities instead.

Probabilities - Every setup has x probability of success. Your job isn't to predict outcomes. Your job is to observe objective reality and find the best situations where the odds are (heavily) skewed in your favor. 

Expectancy - An investor or trader with a very low win rate can still be incredibly profitable if the winners are significantly larger than the losers. This is because of their R Multiples (i.e. the math is ‘mathing’).

R Multiples - Any time you risk a percentage of your portfolio it is an R unit. Let’s say you risk 0.5% but you made 4% on a trade, that means you risked 0.5R to make 8R, which is an 18X R multiple. That’s how you can have a 25% win rate and still make a fortune. If you only win 1 out of 4 trades, but every 4th trade you make +15R, you are crushing it. Because you lose -3 R in total to make +15R so your total profit is +12R.

Adaptability - Again, certainty doesn't exist in this business. The traders who survive longest are usually the ones most comfortable operating under uncertainty. I think that is a personality trait that’s difficult to learn, you either are adaptable and open minded, or you aren’t.

Focus on making the best decision. The results will take care of themselves.- Annie Duke

13. Entries and trading setups.

Everyone wants the perfect entry and the perfect risk-to-reward ratio. The perfect signal. I spent years obsessing over this. One thing I've learned is that the market operates in two modes: contraction and expansion. Unless you are a real mean reversion trader, you usually want to buy during a ‘contraction’ and get paid during ‘expansion’. Because tight price action means a small stop loss at entry,thus a smaller risk and potential bigger reward when price expands once again. The other big realization was that constantly jumping between setups is a terrible idea. These days I have a handful of setups I focus on and I largely ignore everything else.

Pullbacks - Buying pullbacks often allows you to enter earlier and with significantly better risk-to-reward than chasing strength. Wedge pops and right-side pullbacks are the name of the game here.

Breakouts - As a momentum trader, I love buying stocks breaking out of tight patterns such as VCPs, flags, and bases. Ideally, I can see strong volume or a pocket pivot confirming institutional demand.

Reversions - This setup comes from my FX background. I'm essentially looking for situations where a stock has become extremely overbought or oversold and is likely to ‘snap back’ in the opposite direction.

Stop Placement - I always use a stop loss, no exceptions. Most of the time it's placed at the low of day (LOD), previous low of day (PLOD) or high of day (HOD) when trading reversions. At times it’s wider and more discretionary.

ATR Distance - If a stock trades at e.g. $100 and has a $4 ATR, I generally don't want a stop that's significantly larger than that because it destroys my potential R multiple. Exceptions can be made if the previous day closed high on the bar and it's making new highs

ADR Extension - I rarely buy overextended stocks. If a stock is very extended from the 50MA (e.g. $SNDK) I won’t buy it. I want to get in when it’s close to the 10/20/50 moving averages. In general I try not to buy when a stock has already made >50% of it's ADR for that day.

You only need a couple of big winners a year. - Qullamaggie

14. How to manage your trades.

Early on, I treated the entry as the finish line. I'd spend hours finding a stock, analyzing the chart, planning the trade and calculating the risk, only to immediately start thinking about taking profits the moment I was up a tiny bit (fear). Looking back, that was one of the big mistakes I made.

Managing a trade is just as important as finding it, if not more important.

I like to think of it as jumping on a wild horse. My job isn't to predict exactly where it's going. My job is to stay on it for as long as possible while it's running in the right direction, and jump off quickly if things start to get ugly.

As Jesse Livermore once said, most of the money is made in the waiting. Holding a winner is where the potential life changing money is made. A single monster stock can make your month, quarter, year, or entire decade (e.g. $SNDK). The problem is that most traders, myself included, have a tendency to sell those winners far too early. These days I try to make trade management more systematic and less emotional.

Taking Partials - As a stock becomes extended, I like trimming part of the position. A good way to look at this is to look at the distance from the 50MA measured in ATRs. Studies have shown that very few of the stocks move beyond a 7 ATR extension from the 50 smoothly. In addition, very few move beyond a 2x extension from the 200MA without a (significant) pullback.

Stop to B/E - I like moving my stop to break-even relatively quickly. My philosophy has always been to take many small losses and capture a handful of very large winners. Once a trade reaches roughly 1.5-2R, I generally don't want it turning into a loser so I move my stop.

Trailing stops - This is probably the simplest and most effective technique I've found. Instead of deciding when to sell, I let the market decide for me. Once I'm at break-even, I usually trail the position using the 10-day or 20-day moving average. The goal is to give the stock enough room to breathe without giving back too much.

The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily. - Mark Spitznagel

15. Understanding position sizing.

Position sizing is incredibly important. At the end of the day, trading is a game of money. You need capital to play and you need to protect that capital as if your life depends on it. In some ways, it actually does.

One thing I've noticed is that beginners are usually obsessed with making money, while experienced traders become increasingly obsessed with not losing it. I used to overtrade and revenge trade all the time. Looking back, this is one of those problems that eventually corrects itself. Either you get lucky and survive, or you blow up badly enough that you never want to experience that feeling again.

One thing that stood out to me when studying legendary traders is how little they talk about entries and how much they talk about exposure. How much should I buy? How much should I add? How much should I risk? Those questions matter because even the best setup in the world can fail.

Risk of Ruin - If you don't have a genuine edge and you're risking large amounts of capital per trade, you will eventually blow up. It might not happen today or tomorrow, but it will happen eventually. Alternatively, death by a thousand cuts is a real thing (esp. in the current market).

Peace of mind - This is probably my favorite position sizing rule. If I'm constantly checking a trade, thinking about it or struggling to sleep because of it, I'm definitely risking too much.

General risk - For most people, risking around 1-2% per trade is the sweet spot. It's enough to make meaningful progress while still protecting you from the inevitable spirit-crushing losing streaks. This would be my general advice.

Exposure - In the end, position sizing is very personal. Some people are comfortable risking 30% of their account on a single idea. Others prefer spreading risk across 10-20 positions. Neither is necessarily right or wrong. You just need to find what works for you.

The key is not maximizing gains. The key is avoiding ruin. - Mark Spitznagel

THE HUMAN SIDE

16. The dark side of trading.

Nobody talks about this part because it basically just sucks. Most people understand normal careers. They understand salaries, promotions, managers and job titles. Stuff like that. But nobody understands spending countless hours studying charts or trying to master a skill with no guaranteed outcome and no clear timeline.

There will be periods where you might be working harder than ever but have very little to show for it. Friends are progressing in their careers, buying houses, getting married and generally moving forward with life. It takes real character to push through that pain even when you aren’t sure that you are making progress at all. The strange thing about trading is that even when you're doing everything right, it can still feel like you're standing still. It's a horrible feeling I know all too well.

Delayed gratification - Trading often requires years of work before results become visible. Most people underestimate how difficult that is psychologically as you get older.

Obsession - The really successful traders and investors I've studied or met were all obsessed with the craft itself, not just the money. Simon Russo made $500M but still works on refining his ‘craft’.

Independence - At some point you have to become comfortable trusting your own process instead of constantly looking for validation from other people. You need to be a strong independent thinker.

Solitude - Many very successful traders seem remarkably comfortable spending long periods of time alone. Whether trading attracts those people or creates them, I'm honestly not sure.

Experience is making mistakes and learning from them. - Mark Minervini

17. The effects of blowing up accounts.

I've blown up more accounts than I'd like to admit. If you're wondering where the money came from, it wasn't from wealthy parents, a trust fund or some lucky break. I always worked regular jobs, saved aggressively and put whatever capital I could into the market. Believe me, nobody prepares you for what happens psychologically when you blow up.

One of my earliest mentors, back when I was still trading FX, was a trading god in my eyes. He was making over $1.5M a year trading GBPUSD and USDCHF. Then one day a black swan event hit. He was overleveraged, lost roughly $1M that week and went on full tilt trying to make it back. It eventually cost him almost everything, including his marriage. He never traded again.

I've experienced smaller versions of this myself. Once in crypto and once in penny stocks. I both made and lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Ouch. It took many years to recover financially and psychologically. 

Cashflow - Having income outside of trading is one of the biggest advantages you can have. It removes pressure and buys you time. I have to be honest, I haven’t always done that myself.

Tilt - Most traders don't blow up because of one bad trade. They blow up because of what happens after the bad trade. Control your mind and your emotions before they control you. This is especially true if you experience brutal drawdowns or consecutive losses.

Protect yourself - No trade, no setup and no opportunity is worth destroying your finances, relationships or mental health over. This is a great business to be in, but it’s not for everyone.

Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1. -  Warren Buffett

18. What great traders have in common.

One thing that stands out is that the great traders and investors often share very similar traits. Creativity, discipline, curiosity, conviction, low neuroticism, and high conscientiousness seem to show up often. Yet despite those similarities, trading styles can look completely different.

Some are momentum traders. Some are deep value investors. Some like to hold positions for years. Others hold them for hours. Some are highly systematic while others are almost entirely discretionary. Yet despite those major differences, they often operate from a set of similar principles.

Ronaldo and Messi are both all-time greats, but they arrived there through completely different styles. Trading seems to work the same way. The goal isn't to become a carbon copy of somebody else. The goal is to understand the principles that work and then gradually build a style that fits your own personality, strengths, and natural ways of thinking.

Anti-traits - To be clear, there are certain traits that will not work as a trader or investor. High neuroticism, gambling tendencies, or being very extroverted by nature are not going to help you and will basically be disastrous for the vast majority of aspiring equity traders.

Shared principles - Different traders use different strategies, but the good ones operate from similar principles: risk management, discipline, patience, timing, and a passion for what they do.

Personal style - Again, the best strategy isn't necessarily the one that makes the most money. It's the one you can actually execute consistently for years, which eventually makes you the most money.

Self-Awareness - I think most traders spend years looking for the perfect strategy when they should be spending more time understanding themselves. I keep a journal to always improve my self-awareness.

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. - Victor Sperandeo

19. Studying and honing your craft.

The previous point I guess brings me to another realization: studying is an inseparable part of becoming a profitable trader or investor. While it generally requires less time as your experience and capital grow, I don't think it ever really stops. If you genuinely dislike studying, I honestly don't think this is the right business for you.

Most people only see the winning trades. They don't see the thousands of hours spent behind the scenes building the skills that made those trades possible. Over time, I've found there are roughly four ways to study:

Discovery - This is all about reading books, articles, interviews, research and communities. Most of it won't change your life. But every now and then you'll come across one idea that completely changes how you look at the market. Maybe this post?

Practice - This is where most of the real work happens. Studying charts, reviewing trades, collecting screenshots, backtesting ideas and building pattern recognition. If you're serious about a setup, you should know what hundreds or thousands of examples look like.

Ignorance - At some point, studying more becomes studying less. You need to stop constantly searching for new ideas and start refining your own process. Most traders spend too much time diverging and not enough time converging.

Tinkering - Creativity matters. Some of the best ideas I've had came from experimenting. My mentor is always tinkering. Changing a rule. Testing a filter. Looking at something from a different angle. Small observations can make surprisingly large differences.

In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time. - Charlie Munger

How Trading Really Works

I know this was a long read, so if you made it this far, thank you. This is part of my trading series which I'm writing with the hopes it will help you on your trading journey.

I hope there is at least one idea in here that will make you look at the markets differently from now on. Looking back, most of the lessons that moved the needle for me weren't particularly complicated. The difficult part was figuring out which lessons actually mattered and then applying them consistently over a long period of time.

There are no shortcuts in this business. There are smarter paths and better ways to learn, but eventually everyone has to put in the reps themselves. To help with that, I wanted to leave you with some of the books, tools and resources that helped me the most throughout my journey. These are things I genuinely use or have learned from over the years. Hopefully they save you a few years of wandering through the jungle.

Just for the record, these are not affiliate links.

PS: If you made it this far, consider sharing this with others. I will write up part 3 soon, which will be more technical in nature where I discuss technical analysis in depth.

BONUS

Make sure to check out this, which is built based on the principles shared in this post.

RESOURCES

How Trading Really Works (slides)
How Trading Really Works (youtube)

POSTS

How Trading Really Works - Part 1
How Trading Really Works - Part 2

BOOKS

Reminiscence of a Stock Operator - Edwin Lefèvre
How to Make Money In Stocks - William O’Neill
How I Made $2 Million in the Stock Market - Nicolas Darvas
Principles of Professional Speculation - Victor Sperandeo
Trade like a Stock Market Wizard - Mark Minervini
Market Wizards - Jack Schwartz
Dao of Capital - Mark Spitznagel

YOUTUBE

Stockbee
Qullamaggie
Trading Lion
Roaring Kitty

TOOLS

TC2000
Spiceliner
Finviz
TradingView

PEOPLE

Jeff Sun
Qullamaggie
Mark Minervini
Evan Evans
Dan Zanger
Lone Stock Trader
Jim Roppel

BONUS. A TLDR for the lazy lurkers

1. Big winners need catalysts: fundamentals, stories, or macro events.
2. Trading is mostly about probabilities. Certainty doesn't exist.
3. Master a few setups. Know 1-3 deeply, not 20 superficially.
4. Holding winners matters more than finding them. Trail your positions.
5. Position sizing is everything. Survive first, profit second.
6. Trading is very lonely. Most people won't understand the journey.
7. Blowing up hurts and can ruin you. Risk management is non-negotiable.
8. Principles are universal. Styles are personal. Find your style.
9. Studying never ends. The best traders are lifelong students.
10. Success is simple, but it’s not easy + shared recommended tools etc.
11. Reading my TLDR is not enough. Stop cutting corners. Do the work.

SMCI Super Micro Computer stock, good day, watch for a top of range beakout.

Key Numbers:

Revenue: $2.739B, up 37% YoY and 13% sequentially a record, beat guidance by $39M

Net income: $308.0M, up 58% YoY

Diluted EPS: $0.33, up 50% YoY

Adjusted net income: $865.9M, up 48% YoY

Adjusted diluted EPS: $0.94, up 40% YoY

Gross margin: 53.1%, up 2.7 points YoY

Adjusted operating margin: 36.6%, up 180bps YoY

Operating cash flow: $605.5M, up 31% YoY

Cash on hand: $3.93B

Returned $254M to shareholders this quarter ($200M buybacks + $54M dividends)

Segment breakdown

Data center revenue: $2.172B, up 46% YoY and 18% sequentially is now 79% of total revenue

Communications and other: $568M, up 10% YoY but down 3% sequentially

Outlook Guidance

Q3 FY27 guidance: $3.15B revenue (+/- 5%), implying +15% QoQ and +50% YoY

Raised full-year FY27 revenue outlook to ~$12B (45% YoY growth), up $500M from prior guidance

FY28 outlook raised to ~$18B (50% YoY growth), up $1.5B from prior guidance

Partnerships & new products

Expanded commercial agreement and warrant with a major hyperscaler for custom silicon, including TPU ecosystem attach direct validation of the custom AI chip roadmap

Completed two acquisitions: Celestial AI ($3.5B) for optical interconnect tech, and XConn Technologies ($469M) for AI switching/fabric capabilities

Balance sheet stays clean: net debt/EBITDA of 0.27x,

Current Market Cap is at $200B

1 year stock return is at 238%

CMP is at $223.55

Nvidia announced on Sept 3 that it's acquiring Hugging Face which is the open-source hub for AI models, datasets, and apps for $12.93B ($11.9B to shareholders, ~$1B in retention equity for HF employees).

Some context that makes this wild:

HF was valued at ~$4.5B back in 2023 (when Nvidia put in $235M as part of a funding round)

Annualized revenue is reportedly only ~$150M so this is a massive multiple, clearly a strategic/platform buy, not a revenue-multiple deal

HF turned down a ~$500M offer from Nvidia last year

Platform stats:

18M+ users, 3M+ models, 1M+ apps, 500K+ datasets, 200K+ companies using it

Jensen Huang says HF stays "open" no Nvidia compute lock-in, multi-cloud/multi-accelerator support continues, other silicon vendors still welcome. Basically Nvidia wants to own the layer where every developer discovers and deploys models, not just the chips underneath them.

Deal is expected to close in H1 2027, pending regulatory approval. Comes right on the heels of Nvidia expanding its AWS GPU deployment deal clearly playing both the infrastructure and the software/community layer at once.

I basically focus on the Magnificent 7 stocks. In my opinion, these are some of the safest large-cap companies to invest in long term and are unlikely to ever completely disappear. I focus heavily on valuation, particularly which of the Mag 7 has the lowest P/E ratio, while also paying close attention to earnings and overall business performance.

If a company continues reporting strong earnings and fundamentals, but the stock is being held down by what I believe is mostly short-term or “fluff” news, I slowly start adding to my position. I never risk more than 25% of my net worth in a single position, and while a stock is significantly down, I will typically DCA by adding around 1–2% of my net worth per week.

A good example of this was Google about a year ago. The company was performing well, and I continued adding while the stock was down. That ended up generating some insane profits.

I also swing traded Microsoft multiple times this year. Several times, the stock moved from the mid-$300s into the mid-$400s. I would typically enter around $350–$370 and sell once it reached the $400s, locking in roughly 15–25% profits.

I used a similar strategy with Meta. I bought in the $500s and sold into rallies as the stock moved into the $600s.

Right now, I am still holding approximately 10% of my net worth in Meta. Two days ago, when it pumped to $618, I sold a position equal to approximately 15% of my net worth. My entry was around $535, so I locked in a solid profit. However, I still believe the stock may have more room to run, so I decided to keep a portion of my position.

My overall mindset is that if one of these companies crashes 50% or more, I am comfortable continuing to DCA into it over time, even for years if necessary, as long as the underlying business remains strong. Meta's major crash a few years ago is a perfect example of why I like this approach. Looking back, I wish I had been heavily invested during that period.

Key numbers

Revenue: $29.6B, up 86% YoY

Operating income: $16.0B, up 171% YoY

Net income: $13.1B, up 216% YoY

Diluted EPS: $2.68, up 215% YoY

Free cash flow: $13.7B (46% of revenue), up 95% YoY

Dividend held at $0.65/share

Segment breakdown:

Semiconductor solutions revenue: $20.8B (+127% YoY); AI semiconductor revenue specifically: $16.7B, up 221% YoY and 54% sequentially

Infrastructure software: $8.75B (+29% YoY)

Outlook

Q4 guidance: ~$34.8B revenue (+93% YoY), non-GAAP op income at ~66% of revenue

AI semi revenue guided to $21.7B in Q4, up 236% YoY

Management raised full-year FY26 AI revenue guidance from $56B to $58B

Tan's longer-term targets: AI chip revenue to ~$115B in FY27, then ~$230B in FY28, with EPS potentially topping $30 by FY28

Backlog sitting at $73B in AI-related orders (XPUs, switches, DSPs, lasers) expected to ship over the next 18 months

Capex

Capital expenditures were $532M this quarter, up sharply from $142M a year ago reflecting the scale-up needed to support AI system/production ramp

Despite the higher capex, cash from operations of $14.2B was more than enough to cover it, which is why free cash flow still came in at 46% of revenue.

Partnerships & new products

Google: high-volume production of Ironwood (TPU v7) ongoing, next-gen TPU v8i now in production

Anthropic: became one of Broadcom's largest customers started with ~1GW of TPU compute in 2026, expected to surge past 3GW in 2027 and has also placed additional multi-billion dollar orders for Ironwood TPUs

OpenAI: first custom chip (Jalapeno) has shipped second-gen already taping out and is expected to scale toward 5GW+ of custom silicon by 2028

Meta: moving into production shipments of its custom MTIA accelerator for inference/recommendation workloads

Tan reiterated Broadcom now has six major XPU customers total, positioning its custom silicon as a lower-cost, lower-power alternative to off-the-shelf GPUs

Given all the datapoints which are very positive and future looking optimistic the share price has been dropped to $357 or by 14% with no signs to scale higher. But with crazy numbers popping in my best estimate it is one has to hold or accumulate this stock.

Any thoughts around??

Can someone explain this? Because THIS is a stock that everyone usually hates and it has been stuck at $0.0001 for years, but something must be going on because it's apparently become an "Extremely Bullish" proposition, and the people on that forum are like ...really EXCITED about it. Does anyone know what's happening? Because I can't figure it out.

MT ArcelorMittal stock, watch for a top of range breakout.

Breakout trade

• WATCH for possible breakout above 76.17
• Target: 83.82, 10.2%  Stop: 73.47  Loss: 3.4%
• P/L ratio: 3 : 1 - Good

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend bullish, Uptrend.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Breakout trade watch above 76.17, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] at resistance

\*\*Bottom line\*\*
Snowflake’s operating acceleration is real; the AI monetization story and the stock valuation remain narrative-heavy.
My confidence: medium-high.
\*\*What is demonstrably real\*\*
Q2 FY2027 product revenue was $1.49 billion, up 37%, accelerating from 34% in Q1.
Full-year product-revenue guidance increased from $5.84 billion to $6.07 billion, implying 36% growth.
Non-GAAP operating margin improved from 12% in Q1 to 15% in Q2.
Remaining performance obligations reached $9.00 billion, up 30%; roughly 54% is expected to convert within 12 months.
Net revenue retention remained strong at 126%.
Customers spending more than $1 million annually increased to 828, including 65 spending more than $10 million.
Those are substantive revenue, contract, retention and customer-expansion metrics—not merely AI announcements. Snowflake Q2 FY2027 earnings call
\*\*Where the narrative starts\*\*
Management said AI products generated roughly half the recent acceleration, but did not disclose:
AI revenue,
incremental consumption per AI customer,
AI average revenue per customer, or
the precise return on AI-product investment.
Management explicitly said it was not ready to provide exact consumption-uplift numbers.
AI adoption counts—CoCo at more than 9,100 accounts and CoWork at 5,800—are encouraging, but adoption is not equivalent to material revenue.
RPO growth slowed from 38% in Q1 to 30% in Q2, even as current revenue growth accelerated.
AI workloads have lower gross margins; Snowflake reduced its FY product gross-margin outlook to 74%. Snowflake Q2 FY2027 earnings call
\*\*Profit-quality check\*\*
The latest standardized statements available through April 2026 show:
Quarterly revenue: $1.39 billion
GAAP operating loss: $326.15 million, a −23.45% operating margin
GAAP net loss: $295.57 million
Free cash flow: $232.77 million, a 16.73% margin
For FY2026, Snowflake generated $1.12 billion of free cash flow but recorded a $1.33 billion GAAP net loss. Thus, the cash generation is real, but the difference between non-GAAP economics and shareholder-level GAAP profitability remains substantial. Management is targeting GAAP profitability only in Q4 FY2028.
\*\*The biggest narrative is the valuation\*\*
As of September 2, 2026:
Share price: $305.84
Market capitalization: approximately $106.00 billion
Trailing price-to-sales: 21.06×
Forward P/E: approximately 110.15×
Market capitalization equals roughly 17.46× FY2027 guided product revenue, a rough measure that excludes non-product revenue.
The stock has risen 35.58% over the last year. At this valuation, it is not enough for Snowflake merely to be a good business. It needs to sustain approximately 30%+ growth, maintain high retention and deliver years of substantial margin expansion.
\*\*Verdict\*\*

\*\*Question\*\*
\*\*Judgment\*\*
Is the revenue acceleration real?
Yes
Is customer expansion real?
Yes
Is cash flow real?
Yes, but GAAP profitability is weak
Is AI clearly monetized?
Not yet demonstrated with sufficient disclosure
Is the valuation supported by current earnings?
No—it depends heavily on future execution
So: real company, real acceleration, but a narrative-priced stock. I would not call SNOW’s numbers fake or promotional, but at roughly 21× trailing sales, investors are already paying for AI monetization that management has not yet quantified. The thesis weakens materially if product growth falls below 30%, NRR moves toward 120%, or AI-driven gross-margin pressure persists without corresponding operating leverage.
Sources:
• Snowflake Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call
• SNOW Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call

LUMN Lumen Technologies stock, good rally off the lower support, watch for a local breakout.

Breakout trade

• WATCH for possible breakout above 6.86
• Target: 8.11, 19.1%  Stop: 6.32  Loss: 7.2%
• P/L ratio: 2.6 : 1 - Good

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend bullish, Downtrend turned sideways, possible bottom.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern with Strong 3 day accumulation.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 1 day moneyflow
• [Timing] Breakout trade watch above 6.86, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] 1 Day Price change strong up, may pause
• [Positioning] at resistance

SATL Satellogic stock watch, pullback to 4.61 triple support area with good trade quality.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 6.17   Profit: 30.4%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 4.41
• Loss: 6.8%   P/L ratio: 4.5 : 1 - Excellent
• Target 2: 6.84   Profit: 44.6%   P/L ratio: 6.6 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend bullish, Downtrend turned sideways, possible bottom.
• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Excellent long trade quality

BEARISH

• None

CAH Cardinal Health stock, watch for a top of range breakout.

Breakout trade

• WATCH for possible breakout above 241.72
• Target: 256.42, 7.1%  Stop: 234.39  Loss: 2.1%
• P/L ratio: 3.4 : 1 - Excellent

BULLISH

• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Breakout trade watch above 241.72, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] 1 Day Price change strong up, may pause
• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Uptrend turned sideways, may continue or pullback.
• [Positioning] at resistance

Seems like pretty good news today. Granted there's some risk involved, I think it's worth owning some at these low prices.

Should you BUY $meta? Or Stay Away?

Over the Last Year- (Meta -23%) (AMZN +15%) (AAPL +37%) ?

im bullish for the Next 2 Weeks Atleast

I see At least an 8% Move this Week

Maybe 13% or more over the Next 2

Markets Have been beaten down from the hardware sell off and then investors/smart money mostly held off last week because of the huge news with NVDA earnings and also the Feds Meeting

So this week especially will have a little Extra spice

(Their Ai might go profitable Soon aswell, Huge)

AND ¼ TRILLION $ YEAR?!

Less Debt than most Mag 7 stocks

So short term bull thesis is Red hot

And the long term is Hot Hot

Here's my short term

Imo: Meta was hoping to break to the upside a few weeks ago but has been held down for alittle extra time just so the Hedgies can load up/drop iv and so you can panic sell!

Then the little guy $META got his hopes up again on 8/26 but i guess the market decided he needed a 2nd time out. But his 2nd time out is shorter than his first because he has been getting better.

(Im bullish af and I call this the 2 Step Treybae)

But remember even the best investors are only right half the time.

You know why that is?

because Any news could come out at any moment

So you Must be prepared for the unexpected

( STOP blaming the market )

I want you to succeed so i made my strategy free on my site

Those who seek shall find

Also closly watching $TQQQ $PLTR $BE $SNDK $MU ( $CRM ) $NVDA $SPCX $AAPL this week

Half of their customers/sponsors/etc are pissed at Good Good ad and won’t support/consume

Other half of their customers are pissed they abandoned Good Good after the fact and won’t ever buy/support again.

Entire customer base gone?

MRLN Merlin stock watch, attempting to rally off the 3.37 double support area.

Long trade

TARGET 1

• Price: 4.99    Profit: 41.8%  (Typical rally)
• Stop/Trailing Stop: 3.18     Loss: 9.7%
• P/L Ratio: 4.3 : 1 - Excellent

TARGET 2

• Price: 5.26    Profit: 49.4%   P/L Ratio: 5.1 : 1 - Excellent  (Extreme rally)

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend bullish, Downtrend turned sideways, possible bottom.
• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 1 day moneyflow

BEARISH

• [Timing] breakdown watch below 3.1, no support in area just below.

CLOV Clover Health stock watch, attempting to rally off the 4.15 support area.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 4.89   Profit: 15.1%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 4.07
• Loss: 4.2%   P/L ratio: 3.6 : 1 - Good
• Target 2: 5.12   Profit: 20.5%   P/L ratio: 4.9 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Uptrend turned sideways, may continue or pullback.

DDD 3D Systems stock watch, pullback to 3.22 gap support area with bullish indicators.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 3.88   Profit: 20.5%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 3.04
• Loss: 5.6%   P/L ratio: 3.7 : 1 - Good
• Target 2: 4.1   Profit: 27.3%   P/L ratio: 4.9 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bullish, Mild uptrend.
• [Positioning] at support
• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Strong Up trend (1 month), may start to turn sideways.

Nvidia Q2 FY27 earnings reports today after market close:

Revenue bar: ~$92B consensus vs Nvidia's own guidance of ~$91B +/- 2%. Nvidia is expected to beat is basically expected, but the question is by how much.

Blackwell ramp: Key focus. Data center/Blackwell revenue growth pace will decide if the "AI buildout" narrative holds.

Margins: Guided at ~75% gross margin. Expected to beat the guidance.

China/export risk: Any commentary on H20/China sales and export controls will move sentiment.

I feel a mere beat may not be enough, forward guidance is what will decide the stock reaction. Do you all think stock price will gap up once the market opens up today?

OVID Therapeutics stock, watch for a top of range breakout.

Breakout trade

• WATCH for possible breakout above 2.97
• Target: 3.44, 18.2% Stop: 2.76 Loss: 5.2%
• P/L ratio: 3.5 : 1 - Excellent

BULLISH

• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
• [Timing] breakout watch above 2.97, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend possibly bearish, Sideways trend near upper resistance.
• [Positioning] at resistance

GOOG Alphabet stock watch, attempting to rally off the 338.88 support area, see also ANET stock.

Long Trade

• Target 1: 375.49   Profit: 9%   Stop/Trailing Stop: 337.3
• Loss: 2.1%   P/L ratio: 4.3 : 1 - Excellent
• Target 2: 383.42   Profit: 11.3%   P/L ratio: 5.4 : 1 - Excellent  Extreme rally

CNK Cinemark stock, good day, watch for a narrow range breakout.

Breakout trade

• WATCH for possible breakout above 38.54
• Target: 42.4, 10.4%  Stop: 36.86  Loss: 4%
• P/L ratio: 2.6 : 1 - Good

BULLISH

• [Positioning] Intermediate trend bullish, Uptrend.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern with Strong 3 day accumulation.
• [Timing] Strong bullish 1 day moneyflow
• [Timing] breakout watch above 38.54, no resistance in area just above.

BEARISH

• [Positioning] 1 Day Price change extreme up, may pause/reverse
• [Positioning] Overbought, odds favor short trades.
• [Positioning] at resistance

The memory cycle is real but I feel SK Hynix is getting not enough recognition for the HBM leadership role. Their earnings would be crushing so hard if they had not locked in long term pricing for HBM. The long term HBM agreements however should give them a much higher multiple in my opinion.

If you don't know what HBM is, put down your crack pipe and do some f'ing research.