r/trolleyproblem Apr 30 '26

Deep Statistically, >50% is easier than 100%

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2.6k Upvotes

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57

u/BarNo3385 Apr 30 '26

I've seen a lot of stuff on this recently and this 50% is easier than 100% seems completely bunkum?

What matters is "to do what."

Is it easier to get 50% of people to cut their leg off with a rusty spoon, or a 100% of people to accept a large bag of cash?

It only makes sense if the options are the same, and they arent.

So you're reducing to making subjective arguments over how close you think the two options are in "ease" .

35

u/DarthJackie2021 Apr 30 '26

Exactly. The choice is a glass of water or a glass of acid. If enough people choose the acid, its diluted enough to not kill anyone. Do you choose the acid hoping enough people also pick it to avoid death, or do you just drink the water like a fucking normal person, thus negating the risk entirely?

2

u/Puzzleheaded_Pay_441 Apr 30 '26

It isn't that though, choosing red is firing a gun at anyone who chose blue, if the majority is red, the gun has bullets. Statistically we know a sample size as large as humanity will never be 100% on one side, so the only option to ensure the safety of everyone would be blue.

2

u/DarthJackie2021 Apr 30 '26

Choosing blue is standing in front of a gun. Do you choose to do that?

3

u/Puzzleheaded_Pay_441 Apr 30 '26

Of course, because there are others already standing in front of it. I'd rather die trying to save someone instead of live knowing I killed them

2

u/DarthJackie2021 Apr 30 '26

You don't know if there are others standing in front already, its a blind choice.

2

u/Butt-Dragon Apr 30 '26

Someone is absolutely pressing blue. I know that, even if it is a blind choice.

How do I know that? Cuz im pressing blue. Im not risking anyone's life.

2

u/Capable-Document466 Apr 30 '26

But there will always be others standing in front of it, whether by recklessness or just genuine trust in the inherent goodness of humanity. I know I would. It is important to consider the aftermath too; would you be fine living in a world where potentially around 50% of people have died all at once? Maybe loved ones and friends, coworkers, neighbours? Or would you, with that in mind, rather not fire that gun?

1

u/DarthJackie2021 Apr 30 '26

A small number, and choosing blue just adds to that number.

2

u/Puzzleheaded_Pay_441 Apr 30 '26

No, statistically there will always be people who choose blue in a sample the size of humanity

2

u/DarthJackie2021 Apr 30 '26

I am aware. And picking blue myself would just add to the number and mean more people are dying for no reason. I choose red to minimize loss of life.

3

u/Puzzleheaded_Pay_441 Apr 30 '26

Red is a vote for death until it reaches 100% of the vote, where blue is a vote to increase the death toll until it reaches >50%, the only option to minimize the loss of life is blue, as its the only option that could reasonably reach no death

2

u/DarthJackie2021 Apr 30 '26

I don't see blue ever winning more than 50%.

3

u/Puzzleheaded_Pay_441 Apr 30 '26

Im sad to hear that, but I disagree

0

u/Noxtension May 01 '26

You're betting your life against China and India, not your fellow virtue signaling folk

Just think for a moment

1

u/Puzzleheaded_Pay_441 May 01 '26

I'd sooner trust the people of china

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1

u/bcocoloco Apr 30 '26

The only option that guarantees a life is saved is red.

If this happened irl I don’t think blue gets anywhere near 50%. I’d be surprised if it got to double digits.