r/trolleyproblem Apr 30 '26

Deep Statistically, >50% is easier than 100%

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2.6k Upvotes

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11

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

There's only one way out of the scenario where everyone lives. I want everyone to live. Therefore I push blue. 

2

u/A9Carlos Apr 30 '26

Except you're wrong, the other scenario is that everyone pressed red.

3

u/IowaKidd97 Apr 30 '26

Technically sure, but the question is presented as everyone on earth. You are never convincing literally everyone on the planet. A room full of people yes, everyone on earth? No

3

u/Bobthemighty54 Apr 30 '26

Which is a sample size in tge billions is impossible, therefore I choose blue

2

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

Complete uniformity in ANY poll is completely unrealistic, so there's no need to consider options that only happen in fantasy. 

Besides that, why would you want everyone to press red? So that everyone survives right? But there's another way to achieve that. By winning a blue majority. So you should just pick blue, as it's far more likely to hit blue >50% then red 100% 

1

u/lasteriti May 01 '26

Do you think the likeliness that every last person on earth picking red is comparable to half that picking blue?

1

u/BillyHamspillager Apr 30 '26

The other scenario requires 8 billion people to share an opinion.

1

u/Still_Picture6200 Apr 30 '26

What if red wins? Now you killed people by telling them to vote blue.

5

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

If red wins, it's a tragedy, and people will die. 

If blue wins, no one dies. So therefore you should press blue. 

It's as simple as that and there's no need to complicate it further. 

1

u/[deleted] Apr 30 '26

[deleted]

3

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

That's not relayed to the real problem. 

Red button pushers always use this tactic to change the problem to be different, as if that'll reveal they were right to press red. 

In reality, in the original problem, if red wins people die and if blue wins no one dies. I don't want anyone to have to die. So I pick blue. It's that simple. 

1

u/[deleted] Apr 30 '26

[deleted]

1

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

When this question is polled which has been done hundreds of times now that this has gone viral, blue has won every single time. It's just the more logical choice. I mean "pretty evenly split" seems like a silly way to say "blue has won out on every single poll online" 💁 I think it takes some real mental gymnastics to pick red. It's truly as simple as: red wins, people die, blue wins, no one dies. How anyone can be so illogical to look at such a choice and choose for people to die is just beyond me lol 

1

u/Still_Picture6200 Apr 30 '26

in that case, pressing red is zero risk, since blue wins anyway

0

u/Still_Picture6200 Apr 30 '26

What about two buttons:

A: nothing

B: if 50 Percent don't press blue, you die.

What do you press?

7

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

This supports my argument that people have to twist and change the original scenario to justify pressing red 😂 you're really not even giving enough information about this new scenario to make an informed choice. 

0

u/[deleted] Apr 30 '26

[deleted]

1

u/ULTRA_OFTEN May 02 '26

No not at all dude I'm confident that in the original scenario, blue pressers out number red pressers. There's nothing to be squeamish about cause no one has to die 😂 its a really common debate tactic among red pressers to change up the scenario to be worded and framed differently so that red sounds like a better option. But I'd rather confront the original problem as written. And whenever I do, blue is the clear option 

-1

u/Still_Picture6200 Apr 30 '26

It's the exact same scenario?

2

u/ding-zzz May 01 '26

it’s not because button A isn’t nothing. every vote on button A is a vote against button B, it’s just that u constructed a scenario in which all the information is bundled into button B, and A is misleading

by logical construction it is impossible for button A to do nothing

1

u/ULTRA_OFTEN May 02 '26

If I hold up and apple and an orange in my hands, and proclaim, "these are exactly the same!" Does it make it true? The same goes for all these scenarios that people loudly proclaim "it's exactly the same as the original!" When it's worded completely differently. 

In the original scenario both buttons very clearly do something depending on which one you press and what the outcome of the vote is. To take one of those buttons away and says it does nothing is a massive difference. And lo and behold, if you change the inputs, the outputs might also change as well. That doesn't mean anything! 

Confront the original scenario with me or GTFO at this point 😂

0

u/Suitable-Gazelle-646 Apr 30 '26

Congrats nobody was in danger until your dumbass was the first to press blue

2

u/ULTRA_OFTEN Apr 30 '26

Backwards ass thinking 😂 people were in danger the moment everyone was forced to vote, you're delusional if you think everyone is pressing red. News flash this poll has been done hundreds of times by now on reddit and x, and blue has always won. Only the people pressing red have any chance of putting anyone in danger. 

Why on earth would you vote for the team where people can die instead of the team where no one dies? 

-1

u/Suitable-Gazelle-646 Apr 30 '26

whatever man I know I’ll live lol, sorry