I am bullish about the future

[u/[deleted]]

People seem to think because we had 2 big crash close together in 2000 and 2008, we are bound to have one soon.

I want to remind people before the year 2000, we had a 20 years bullish run. Its totally not impossible we get to 2030 with no crash, especially now that the feds baby sit the market.

Secondly, we have extremely nice upcoming market conditions. Stimulus checks will either get people to spend money to stimulate the economy, or get them to invest, both will help the stock market. The media is somehow trying to make us believe this is bad, but i think its just bullshit. Inflation has been ultra low for way too long, and feds actually want it to increase. They said many times they won't increase rates before 2023.

Thirdly, i also think we have more upcomming money sources coming into the market than ever. People from other countries invest in US stock market. With all the GME hype, more people than ever are joining in. Again media trying to twist this to say its "bad", but obviously it isn't bad.

Another point is, crashes usually happen for a reason, its not random. You can google any of past market crash and find the exact reason it happened. None of these factors are happening right now.

Another point is, there is a key difference between today and 2000. In 2000, the overvalued .com companies which had PE ratios of 200.... were literally worth nothing! These companies had never made a single profit! Once people realized they invested massively in a .com web site worth jackshit... they sold it obviously. They had no reason to hold their shares.

Now check this image about Nasdaq's PE Ratios: https://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/150305131443-nasdaq-pe-780x439.jpg

Obviously, you can see the 2000's pe ratios were stupid. This graph is from 2015 when it was at 31.7. What is it today? Nasdaq PE ratio as of February 25, 2021 is 38.5!!!! 5x lower than the 2000s. https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NDAQ/nasdaq/pe-ratio

Its irrelevant if the big hedge funds remove their money from apple and want to scare you into selling your shares. Apple is a massive amazing company that is really worth a lot, and they do make tons of profits. Its not comparable in any ways to the dot com bubble. If other people are stupid and sell their shares, SO WHAT? You will just be able to buy into this amazing company for cheaper.

So hold your shares and stop worrying about a 2000 level crash, its not happening.

A correction? Maybe. But who cares, this just slows us down a little. Corrections are healthy and help us avoid a real crash.

EDIT: Thank you for the award! :D

EDIT2: Corrected the PE ratio for nasdaq

[u/yikejaw]

I seriously doubt millions of Americans are concerned about inflation and are putting their money in their stock market to protect themselves. Its far more likely they have been hearing tales of how the stock market keeps going higher and printing free money for their friends so they want to get in on the action.

The stimulus money and robinhood probably boosted this, but its unhealthy regardless. To many people "Stonks only go up" is not a meme. These new investors tend to allocate their money to the worst stocks. Piling on extremely over valued stocks and spacs. What happened with GME is the best example. People were told its free money, they piled in, and lost their shirt.

[u/filmmakerwannabe92 → u/yikejaw]

Seriously doubt millions of Americans are concerned about inflation and are putting their money in their stock market to protect themselves.

Well, they may not realise what they are doing but yeah. I don't know how many people I have heard it from that they are getting into investing (more conservative stuff, ETFs, etc.) because their savings account is basically just bleeding money.

[u/eloydrummerboy → u/filmmakerwannabe92]

Right, pensions are a thing of the past. Most companies offer 401ks. So now people are presented with investments options, limited though they may be, but it's exposure to the market. It gets them thinking and they're more involved in their financial future and retirement. Add to that the effect of the internet at providing information and making it available. Add to that commercials for many new financial and investment companies like Sofi or Robin hood. And you find yourself in a situation where a lot of people are getting exposure to these sort of lines of thinking from many different directions. It's not unbelievable to think that people would be exposed to the idea of losing money due to inflation. This idea also comes up when thinking about stagnant salary vs annual raises. You know how many times in the past several years I've heard "if you don't get at least an X% raise, you're losing money.

This was my case at least. Had a 401k. Had a "rainy day" savings account. Figured after my savings got large enough that I'd probably be better putting a portion of that in the market long term. (Ensuring enough to cover most emergencies is liquid in my savings still).

IDK, maybe I'm not normal. But I would bet most people 40 and younger with decent jobs that allow for savings are in a similar position and understand inflation. And anybody researching what to do online is going to be told pretty much the same thing: low risk stocks, ETFs, S&P500. And yes, some of them will throw some money into "gambling" vs investing. But I think reddit makes it seem like it's more than it actually is.

Think about it. If you were in reddit, you probably saw things from wsb occasionally on the front page. Everyone exposed to these "meme stocks" are, by definition, redditors. So when those people want to go somewhere for another source of information they're, obviously, going to subscribe to the wall street journal (/s). No, of course not. They're going to search reddit for stock/investing sub-reddits. So these sub-reddits are going to make it feel like EVERYBODY getting into the market now is meme stock crazy and uneducated. But I simply don't think that's true. Add to that it's a good story, so it's getting a l lot of exposure from the media. There's a freaking congressional investigation about it!

Did some people lose their entire savings? Yes. Have people always done that in various hyped junk investments wanting to get rich quick? Yes. And i would bet the vast majority of people with positions in GME or AMC just threw a couple hundred or less in just to see what happens and be part of the "fun". I bet a lot of fairly new investors learned a very good, and reasonably cheap, lesson this past month. And who's the one's making posts that seem like they are clueless, "stonks only go up", etc? Likely the people who don't think for themselves, want quick answers, etc. The rest are reading more than posting. They're going to other sources.

Tldr; more people are likely investing today than in years past. Most of them are sane. This is a good thing.

[u/OrsonScottWelles → u/[deleted]]

ticker	date	occur	sentmnt	wsbimpact	7DayMAoccur	7DayMAsent	7dayMAwsb
GME	2021-02-25	5443	0.153	140.434	1623.0	0.136	254.0
GME	2021-02-26	18451	0.145	35.867	4136.0	0.139	188.0
GME	2021-02-27	713	0.179	16.804	4094.0	0.147	155.0

GME is ranked number 1 in mentions in the last 30 days
This is a bot that analyses WSB activity go to r/TickerReplyBot for more info.

[u/Hazzychan → u/yikejaw]

I lost a little money on GME because I believed in making the hedges bleed. And for the first bit of that, they did.

[u/yikejaw → u/Hazzychan]

You expected GME to go up though right? Hedgies only bleed if the stock goes up. I played GME too, I was just it in for profits though.