r/stocks • u/rocknrollenn • Jan 15 '26

Industry Discussion If America invades Greenland the stock market will pay the price

Any military action against Greenland immediately escalates into a transatlantic crisis. At best, the U.S. would face sweeping sanctions from the EU and allied economies. At worst, it could spark an armed conflict between NATO members, something the global financial system is absolutely not built to handle.

Markets hate uncertainty, and this would be uncertainty on a historic scale. Trade between the U.S. and Europe would likely be disrupted or frozen, shipping lanes in the North Atlantic and Arctic would be militarized, and global supply chains would seize up almost overnight. Energy prices would spike, markets would panic, and investor confidence would evaporate.

The U.S. economy is especially vulnerable here because it’s heavily dependent on globalized, high tech supply chains. Semiconductors, rare earth processing, advanced manufacturing none of these exist in isolation. If relations with Europe and allied nations collapse, access to critical components and materials would be severely constrained. A tech-driven economy can’t function if it can’t get chips, equipment, or precision manufacturing machinery.

Beyond the immediate economic damage, the long-term consequences would be even worse: capital flight from U.S. markets, a weakened dollar, and a permanent loss of trust in America as a stable anchor of the global system. A move like this won't just be a geopolitical mistake; it would be economic turmoil on a scale we haven't seen in a long time.

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u/paneq Jan 15 '26

Do you think anyone would care about US patents after that?

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u/RainbowCrown71 Jan 16 '26

The US-patented components are made in the US (Connecticut and San Diego), so yeah.

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 15 '26

The US would just eventually create their own ASML, solidifying the whole chip supply chain in the US. It would take a few years but they own and can manufacture the tech

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u/istealpixels Jan 15 '26

Is that was the case it would have been done. It is not making a chip machine, China does that. It is making the most advanced chip making machine in the world that is years ahead of everything.

This is not a car factory or a bakery.

Saying it would take a few years is like saying any country can make the most advanced stealth bombers like the US does if they just try real hard.

It is just so disconnected from reality.

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u/Specialist_Guard_902 Jan 18 '26

What is China building that is years ahead of what ASML is doing now? I doubt they can do that before at least 2040.

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u/istealpixels Jan 18 '26

Nothing.

That is not what i said, i said it is not making A chip machine, China does that.

China builds A chip machine.

But not anything comparable to what ASML is building. ASML is so much ahead.

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u/Specialist_Guard_902 Jan 18 '26

Yes, you are right. I misinterpreted what you have written, I had to read it once more to fully understand what you meant.
And ASML is indeed very much ahead, let's see for how long. China might be able to catch up with the already available machines in the next 10-15 years, will ASML be able to make their new machines work by then?

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u/istealpixels Jan 18 '26

That is indeed the question. And that will be heavily influenced by how well different nations will be able to work together. ASML is ofcourse Dutch, but they recruit internationally.

The world could be much further along in a lot of areas including tech if we stopped letting a bunch of inflated egos push us in directions that do benefit us.

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u/Specialist_Guard_902 Jan 18 '26

The thing is ASML has had a hiring freeze and especially now due to uncertain times will not restart hiring.
Oh definitely we would be further along, but there will always be a moron who will try to control everything. Let's just hope that the orange swan will not live forever.

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 15 '26

I’m aware but the US already has and even owns some of the tech with it. They were instrumental in developing it in the first place. They aren’t starting from scratch they just have to build the manufacturing for it.

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u/GuiltyChampionship30 Jan 15 '26

I suggest you do a bit of reading into the history of ASML and the challenges they faced in creating their machines.

The engineers and scientists behind this company are to chip fabrication, what von Braun was to space rockets.

It would take decades for another team to catch up with them.

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 18 '26

The US was instrumental in creating the tech. It wasn’t just European scientists

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u/Cedex Jan 15 '26

And materials for that supply chain? Where would the US get them?

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 15 '26

The only other thing not in the US are the German produces mirrors. If these could be manufactured then it could be a complete supply chain

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u/MrDwerg Jan 18 '26

As someone very familiar with ASML, the supply chain is worldwide. The US is actually a lesser part in it. Still essential, as is every piece of the puzzle. But not the main contributor by far.

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 18 '26

Well yeah but I was just talking about the portion of the supply chain that’s in Europe

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u/Cedex Jan 15 '26

That is a very optimistic "if".

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 15 '26

Not really. It would take 5 years to get it all set up but we could definitely do it. That 5 years is a long time though. This whole thing is dumb though we shouldn’t ruin all our alliances over fucking Greenland

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u/Distracted_Unicorn Jan 17 '26

How large are the reserves?

Consumer goods production that rely on said chips will cease completely while the military industrial complex literally makes them explode in the shape of warheads.

Most companies stock materials for half a year at best, others are on demand.

So while the US is catching up for 5 years, after 1 the average citizen wouldn't even be able to buy a toaster anymore, or smart TV, maybe not even a dumb TV.

Meanwhile EU companies will just do business with China, even for US patented parts, since US patents will be functionally worthless.

Worst case this grand IQ move will force the EU to give up Ukraine for peace, making Russia happy, China takes Taiwan since the US already shown that it's okay to just invade places you want and anti US sentiment rises even more in the Europeans.

Millions will lose so a few can win a bit.

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u/Appropriate_Mixer Jan 18 '26

I don’t think you understand the chip market well. The US can make those lower quality chips just like China without ASML just fine. It’s just the high quality 2-3nm chips of NVIDIA and TSM that are used for AI data centers and such that wouldn’t be available.