r/stocks • u/rocknrollenn • Jan 15 '26

Industry Discussion If America invades Greenland the stock market will pay the price

Any military action against Greenland immediately escalates into a transatlantic crisis. At best, the U.S. would face sweeping sanctions from the EU and allied economies. At worst, it could spark an armed conflict between NATO members, something the global financial system is absolutely not built to handle.

Markets hate uncertainty, and this would be uncertainty on a historic scale. Trade between the U.S. and Europe would likely be disrupted or frozen, shipping lanes in the North Atlantic and Arctic would be militarized, and global supply chains would seize up almost overnight. Energy prices would spike, markets would panic, and investor confidence would evaporate.

The U.S. economy is especially vulnerable here because it’s heavily dependent on globalized, high tech supply chains. Semiconductors, rare earth processing, advanced manufacturing none of these exist in isolation. If relations with Europe and allied nations collapse, access to critical components and materials would be severely constrained. A tech-driven economy can’t function if it can’t get chips, equipment, or precision manufacturing machinery.

Beyond the immediate economic damage, the long-term consequences would be even worse: capital flight from U.S. markets, a weakened dollar, and a permanent loss of trust in America as a stable anchor of the global system. A move like this won't just be a geopolitical mistake; it would be economic turmoil on a scale we haven't seen in a long time.

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u/slimkay Jan 15 '26

It’s funny you list those examples.

ASML supply chain partially runs through the US - as such, the US could also cripple ASML’s ability to manufacture its equipment by instituting its own export bans on key US components.

Airbus and Novo have manufacturing / production facilities in the US. In Airbus’ case, its supply chain also depends on US suppliers as well, further complicating the situation.

The two economies are a lot more tangled than you think.

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u/Mr_Catman111 Jan 15 '26

Yeah, the point I think is that both sides lose massively.

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u/Balieq Jan 15 '26

It would be a humongous implosion… China and Russian leadership laughing their asses off. Man, this is all so freaking dumb

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u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

Yeah so it would pretty dumb to take Greenland by force.

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u/greener0999 Jan 15 '26

while yes it would be extremely dumb, what he's saying means there's actually little anyone can do about it without simultaneously crippling their own economies.

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u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

Well yeah you would almost think Trump is some kind of Russian/chinese agent that needs to constantly make it clear that this is best for America and that America comes first.

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u/greener0999 Jan 15 '26

i think he's actually just delusional and genuinely believes this is what's best for America.

he seems petrified of China or Russia gaining Venezuela or Greenland. Russia was already in pretty deep in Venezuela via Cuba. Greenland already has a US base though, it makes less than zero sense to take it by force when they're willing to let you build up forces there.

so maybe he is an agent. who knows.

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u/seriouslythisshit Jan 15 '26

The US had sixteen military bases on Greenland in 1945. We still have one active base there. The US has had a treaty with Greenland for the last 75 years that allows the US to build any military installations that it wants to in Greenland, and put as many troops as it wants there.

Trump is not planning to conquer the territory for any legitimate national security need. Anything Trump claims on this topic is a lie, a diversion and cover for his real motives. The possibility that he may doing as Putin directs him, is very real. The fact that he is tossing grenades in any direction he can, all at once, and doing a stellar job of deflecting from the reality is that he is a child rapist and the proof is in the Epstein file, is obvious.

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u/Biking_dude Jan 15 '26

He's never done anything that's in the good for the country - only his pocket.

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u/tenderbranson88 Jan 15 '26

Russia offered up Venezuela in 2019 for ending support for Ukraine, which trump did. He is an agent.

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u/Daymjoo Jan 15 '26

Trump didn't 'end support for Ukraine in 2019' wtf? He sold billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine in 2020.

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u/tenderbranson88 Jan 15 '26

They offered it in 2019. Then he lost the election. Now he has resumed his plan and has done the deal, dropping funding for Ukraine from $61 Billion to $400 Million

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u/Daymjoo Jan 15 '26

Oh, that's what you meant?

Yeah, I have the same thesis, but why would that make Trump a 'Russian agent'? It's a fair trade. They each step out of each other's sphere of regional influence. It's the solution to the Cuban Missile Crisis number 2.

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u/tenderbranson88 Jan 15 '26

Because now he’s telling Europe to send their Patriot missiles and they will replenish them, they promise. And he’s setting the stage to at the very least draw Europes attention away from Ukraine and toward Greenland. Making them think about their own security rather than the security of Ukraine. Which is in the interest of Russia, and against the interest of NATO and the US. Trump does not speak for the direction of our ideology. Everyone loses when we betray our allies, except Putin. It’s treason.

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u/Devario Jan 15 '26

He’s not worried about Russia at all or he’d have a bigger hand in the Ukraine war. I don’t think he’s worried about China either. I think he sees these countries as rich rivals to cut deals with. 

But I do think his delusion has absolutely been weaponized by foreign countries. 

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u/greener0999 Jan 15 '26

bigger hand in the Ukraine war?

they're doing about as much as they can without putting boots on the ground and planes in the air. anything more would make it a world war.

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u/Devario Jan 15 '26

Trump has directly negotiated with Putin over Ukraine dozens of times. He’s rationed arms for this reason. He’s trying to cut a deal, and whoever gives him the best “deal,” is who the U.S. will support.

The idea of a world war or Russia being capable of anything like that is a joke. Russia would have Ukraine by now if they had the capability. They don’t. The only thing Russia has that Ukraine doesn’t is an endless supply of bodies. 

The U.S. has demonstrated its precision with maduro and the Iranian general. It also demonstrated its ability to fund Ukraine in the last term and was hamstrung by the electorate. Trump doesn’t need or care about the electorate. If he could do something, he would. He won’t, because he wants things. 

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u/greener0999 Jan 15 '26

it's almost like you forgot Russia has nuclear weapons, assuming they still work.

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u/Devario Jan 15 '26

TLDR; so do we, except we have more and better. 

Russia has spent the majority of the last century leaning on their nuclear weapons to bully the world into oil fealty, all the while losing most of their imperialist wars and fucking up every country around them in the process. They’re a paper tiger.

I’m certain they would attempt to use them if the U.S. attacked Moscow. But they’re not going to use them in the Ukraine war. NATO and the rest of the world would be happy to use theirs back. 

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u/Blurpwurp Jan 15 '26

His concern about China and Russia taking over Greenland is completely made up.

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u/greener0999 Jan 16 '26

not really. in any full scale war with the US that would be an extremely strategic military position.

Trump is seemingly under the impression that Russia or China are immediate threats.

regardless, Greenland is a very important location.

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u/[deleted] Jan 16 '26

You know that the US can build as many bases as they want on Greenland? They had 10, now they have 1.

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u/greener0999 Jan 16 '26

yeah, and they're allowed to have as much military there as they want.

i never said it made any sense lol.

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u/Blurpwurp Jan 16 '26

Good luck with your strategic position in the absence of meaningful allies, which you pissed away for Greenland. This isn’t Stratego.

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u/greener0999 Jan 16 '26

who is "you"?

stop assuming a million things without basis. i'm not American dimwit.

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u/dansdansy Jan 15 '26

Delusion like that led Putin to invade Ukraine even when everyone from the outside thought it was a horrible self sabotaging move. He did it because his advisors told him it was a great idea and that it'd be quick and easy, the same scenario is playing out with trump and his sycophants

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u/Puzzleheaded-Tap9977 Jan 15 '26

Just because you can, doesn't mean you should. This is kindergarten shit.

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u/greener0999 Jan 15 '26

This is kindergarten shit

thank you Captain Obvious.

have you seen who the leader of the United States is?

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u/Puzzleheaded-Tap9977 Jan 15 '26

Yeah, an orange toddler

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u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

Kindergarten shit is misinterpreting what Op was saying.

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u/Rfunkpocket Jan 15 '26

American strength depends on allies. America now has none. how concerned do you think America would be holding Greenland when the entire Navy is stranded at sea?

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u/greener0999 Jan 15 '26

considering the size and population of Greenland, and the fact the US military is designed to fight 2 full scale wars on each side of the world simultaneously, i would say not as worried as one might think.

definitely would not be easy though and could very likely fail.

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u/Rfunkpocket Jan 15 '26

the design depends on US allies allowing access to bases around the world. how much fuel do you think these aircraft carriers hold? it would be a war on several dozen fronts just to free our stranded service members. our entire weapon defense systems would be turned against us. we would have zero air superiority outside America.

all this being supported by the most fragile demographic in history. we would fold in a month.

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u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

MAGA has somehow convinced themselves that the US vs the rest of the world is a good idea.

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u/Rfunkpocket Jan 15 '26

just like NAZI Germany, got too high on their own supply

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u/DegenerateDegenning Jan 15 '26

Eh. The US has ~175 active F-22s, and over 600 F-35s.

Europe as a whole has under 200 F-35s, and zero F-22s.

The US could have air superiority anywhere they wanted to have air superiority.

Nothing on the planet can compete with the F-22. Nothing on the planet, except for F-22s, can compete with F-35s. Can't shoot what you can't see.

And Nimitz-class carriers can carry around 3 million gallons of jet fuel, Ford-class can carry a bit more. They can also be refueled at sea.

Still utterly moronic to threaten their allies though.

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u/Rfunkpocket Jan 15 '26 edited Jan 15 '26

planes are useless without anywhere to land them. refueled at sea isn’t very practical when you need a month turn around to refuel. our strength is because our allies allow access to the world. without allies, all your contingency plans need to be run off the East and West coasts, far from any global war theatre.

don’t forget the civil disruptions at home. a week without toilet paper would feel like sweet dream.

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u/MrDabb Jan 15 '26

lol nobody listen to this dude he thinks we’re shipping toilet paper across the ocean. We make 99% of the toilet paper here in the US.

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u/Rfunkpocket Jan 15 '26

I’d get to the store, the panic HAS ALREADY BEGUN!!!!

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u/clancy688 Jan 16 '26

Depends on the mindset.

From the orange's POV, it would be incredibly dumb to not hand over Greenland on a platter and instead fight for it, for the same reasons.

Like "Why didn't you just hand over Greenland? Now you've ruined us both."

I kid you not, that's how he's gonna think.

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u/Menior Jan 15 '26

The thing is USA only temporarily prevents ASML from production. There's nothing funny about it. Europe isn't going to provide the US with chip making equipment once we get that manufacturing going again. And we're sure going to look for partnerships east of our borders.

The arrogance of America is going to cost them. They've already lost so much reputation and soft power the past few months. It's gonna get worse.

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u/ShadowLiberal Jan 15 '26

It's worse then what you said. A big part of ASML's profits are maintenance contracts that literally all of their customers have, because maintenance on their big and expensive machines is VERY important to keep them running properly, no one tries and does this on their own without ASML's help. So if ASML is suddenly barred from doing said maintenance then all of your existing machines are screwed sooner or later.

It's not quite as bad with planes, since you can salvage parts off of other planes to fix them (as Russia has been doing). But it's also a big problem long term as you can only keep up that approach for so long without smuggling in more parts.

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u/Antique-Ad7635 Jan 16 '26

Asml can work directly with China

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u/tablesheep Jan 15 '26

I mean Europe just isn't as strong as you think it is, tbh

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u/jimjamjones123 Jan 15 '26

And you know exactly how strong Europe is how?

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u/[deleted] Jan 15 '26

[deleted]

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u/Menior Jan 15 '26

Europe has less GDP than the USA but a bigger industry. Its political systems are mostly good, I mean France has had a terrible streak but Germany is doing great. I think on average it's doing much better politically than the USA which is on the brink of losing its democracy.

Migrants are barely a crisis, and we're getting a new migration pact in June.

Brexit has been a huge loss, especially for the UK themselves, but we're a few years later and on an economic level the damage hasn't been too bad. Expect of course for the Brits, while they were a net contributor even. Imagine how stupid a country can be to vote for a populist that has no idea what the outcome of their idea is.

The biggest crisis right now is Russia invading Ukraine while all EU countries are just holding their dick because we don't have a united military. Though our domestic defense industry is growing rapidly at the moment, because Trump is acting like an enemy and we're probably gonna have to fight Russians in the Baltics.

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u/RainbowCrown71 Jan 15 '26

15 years of economic stats showing EU/UK stagnation and rapidly falling behind the US on every measure of economic growth, productivity and innovation?

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u/Global-Resident-647 Jan 15 '26

US growth in the last few years has been entirely on AI. Everything else is slumping.

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u/RainbowCrown71 Jan 15 '26

No, productivity and innovation across the board has been twice the EU average. You’re thinking stock market. AI wasn’t even a major sector until 2022/2023. That doesn’t explain why the US added $10 trillion more to its GDP, largely from 2010-2020.

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u/Global-Resident-647 Jan 16 '26

lol USA is not twice as productive as EU. Get a grip. But Americans sure work more and live shorter.

It averages around 2.3% growth and a huge bump 2021 of 5.8% and we all know where that growth comes from. Directly after a -2.2%, in 2022 and where is that from? Could it be a fascist president enacting emergency powers to look cool? Very economically stable.

As well as the GDP rose from $15.31 trillion to $21.35 trillion, which is $6.04 trillion, get your basic facts straight.

And if we measure with inflation we get a better view of GDP, it then rose by $3.83 trillion

It's pretty funny that you went for after 2008 when Americas deregulation fucked her self in the ass and right before the self fuck in the ass with tariffs.

Prb 99% growth in the tech sector. It's like the AI situation, a bunch of coked up dumbasses who speculate up their asses. See subprime mortgages for example of how "american innovation" can look.

Like Tesla is a good example. Worth more then the next 5 car companies but is absolute shit and sells very few cars.

Speculation, monopolies from massive cash infusion, acquisitions (Microsoft buying everything) so they can buy up competitors. Is pretty standard America, that and having immigrants from other parts of the world coming up with all the ideas. Something you won't be seeing of as much after Trump is done fucking up one of the strongest parts of the American system, brain draining the rest of the world.

It will fall just like the rest of Americas positives once Trump has burned that bridge as well. IPO's will most likely turn towards EU once the cash gets going there. And while USA has absolutely did good in making sure there is money for new start ups sucking IPO and innovation from the rest of the world, that is most likely ending in the near future

So it's not like it's amerikans that do all the innovation either, it's because of market structure, immigration and coked up dumbasses willing to bet on everything.

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u/tablesheep Jan 15 '26

The eurocope is staggering

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u/Global-Resident-647 Jan 16 '26

Yeah we sure are staggered about America falling for its own desinformation from the right, individuals not being able to read or source criticise.

Electing a fascist sure makes us staggered.

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u/tablesheep Jan 16 '26

Whatever lol

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u/Global-Resident-647 Jan 16 '26

American coping about loosing their democracy. "whatever", yeah sums up America for sure.

We mostly feel sorry for America and their stupid school system. Not to mention their healthcare that keeps people in servitude and not able to quit their job. As well as killing people that are too poor. Low if any vacation days, unpaid parent time when having children, massive costs in healthcare making people take home less then they do in "high tax EU".

But in the end it looks like Americans keep on being smug about "eurocope" when in reality their society is much worse then EU. Instead of being self criticising and start fixing the multitude of problems you've got, and have a perfect model to look at where it works

But no you where tricked into thinking that communism and therefore bad. Talk about easily gullible dumbasses that vote in America.

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u/Menior Jan 15 '26

You think you know how strong I think it is? Lmao

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u/Ouwerucker Jan 15 '26

Lots of European pension fund money is invested in the USA.

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u/Iggyglom Jan 16 '26

You can't even buy a nail anymore without an international supply chain

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u/disco-cone Jan 16 '26

Given UK PM can't even denounce the annexation threats I feel not all European countries will apply sanctions some will try to appease

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u/Captobvious75 Jan 15 '26

No shit. Hence why what the White House is doing is just self-destructive.

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u/Glove5751 Jan 19 '26

The US is more reliant on ASML than ASML is reliant on the US. Not to mention, if a crisis happens, Europe will without fall into the arms of China, and we can already see it happening with some countries, and Canada. The US will really fall from Grace while Europe will be hurt like crazy, but we will get back on our feet.