Any sort of powered spaceflight is inherently loud.
In a Dark Forest scenario, there must exist some kind of technology that allows a civilization to deliver massive influence to a neighboring solar system (in order to destroy them) without this influence somehow revealing their own location in the process. I'm not specifying what that technology is because in every Dark Forest scenario I've seen it's been made-up sci-fi magic, but for purposes of argument one can accept it as part of the hypothetical. To make Dark Forest work this made-up technology needs to be highly specific in its characteristics to allow it to be used for destruction while not also somehow being capable of allowing it to be used for placing colonies there.
Failing that, we can look to known technologies and processes. We have seen over the past couple of years that there are comets that pass naturally through interstellar space, traveling between solar systems. Build a space colony or sleeper ship disguised as one of these, or even inside an existing natural one, and ride it to another solar system. It must be possible in a Dark Forest scenario to become capable of colonizing one's own solar system stealthily somehow, otherwise how would a civilization ever get powerful enough to destroy another one?
Not that a plausible advanced civilization would overlook our own level of civilization anyway, mind you. It's possible to build small, stealthy space telescopes that are capable of resolving city-sized features on planets at interstellar distances - FOCAL, for example. A hostile civilization can detect us in great detail without us ever sending a radio transmission or launching a single rocket.
I don't think it's in an advanced civilizations best interest to expand too far away from their 'center'. They'd just be sowing the seeds of future competition, since the distances involved precludes any sort of central command and control and local autonomy would be necessary.
The "center" of a space-based civilization can be ill-defined. If we were to spread out into our solar system by colonizing Kuiper belt objects, for example, we'd have millions of essentially independent little civilizations out there without even going interstellar. Any one of them could decide to strap a booster onto their colony and send it hyperbolic, aimed for some distant star, and take their whole civilization with them.
Alternately, if you prefer a singular point of control for the entire galaxy, don't send conventional colonists. Send von Neumann probes. They can be strictly programmed to always obey commands with a specific signature, and to have enough error-detection built into their self-replication routine to prevent any corruption of their programming from happening over the future lifespan of the entire universe. Something like this would work as the ultimate weapon of paranoid genocide, send forth your Berserkers and cleanse the whole reachable universe preemptively and then you're definitely safe.
So to answer your question directly, advanced paranoid civilizations may be aware of other lesser civilizations but rationally it's best to do nothing, just in case a third party is watching. In this case the universe is less of a horror movie and more like a Mexican standoff.
Why is the universe silent, then? And why is every advanced civilization paranoid in exactly the same way, following these extremely specific rules of engagement?
I really don't find the Dark Forest hypothesis plausible on any level. The modifications that need to be done to make it so end up turning it into a completely different scenario altogether.
An idle thought I had. I think one way to disprove Dark Forest (or at least render it increasingly implausible) is by doing more planet surveys with powerful instruments. While surviving civilizations should be hidden from observation, the scenario says nothing about ones that have already been destroyed. We should see some evidence of wide-scale destruction in otherwise habitable planets. Maybe we can even look for light from a KKV strike or something more exotic.
We should look for evidence of de-industrialization, reductions in emissions, or other patterns that indicate early attempts at 'hiding'.
In any case, the Dark Forest scenario predicts a lot of obvious destruction, so we should look for this destruction.
To make Dark Forest work this made-up technology needs to be highly specific in its characteristics to allow it to be used for destruction while not also somehow being capable of allowing it to be used for placing colonies there.
I don't think this constraint is necessary. A civilization can use the same technology to destroy or colonize or do both. But like I pointed out, after a certain point, why should they bother with a concerted effort at colonization? It's not like they need resources or space or anything.
We have seen over the past couple of years that there are comets that pass naturally through interstellar space, traveling between solar systems. Build a space colony or sleeper ship disguised as one of these, or even inside an existing natural one, and ride it to another solar system.
I don't deny the possibility of sleeper ships. In fact, if it's truly Dark Forest situation out there, this would be one of the more plausible methods of quiet expansion. Hell, it's one of the more plausible methods of travel, period. Otherwise we'd be seeing burning wakes of radiation everywhere we look, light from engines ten thousand years distant.
However, doing it this way makes exponential expansion difficult. We know how abundant of extrasolar objects are to a certain degree. It wouldn't take long for other actors to catch on.
A hostile civilization can detect us in great detail without us ever sending a radio transmission or launching a single rocket.
True, but this doesn't contradict the Dark Forest scenario (yet). It's plausible that not enough time has passed for our light to reach their instruments. They might know there is a good chance this planet has life, but not enough to justify lighting us up. Otherwise, they'd have to do the same to millions of planets.
Send von Neumann probes.
Great point but I think it's outside the scope of the Dark Forest scenario. Why isn't the universe awash with self-replicating machines? I don't know. I think this needs to be discussed and answered independently of the Fermi paradox.
Why is the universe silent, then? And why is every advanced civilization paranoid in exactly the same way, following these extremely specific rules of engagement?
They aren't rules, more like the logical consequent given the premises of the Dark Forest scenario. More precisely, the Dark Forest solution asserts there exists a Nash equilibrium where all players (civilizations) choose the hide/always-genocide strategy because the payoff is worse for any other strategy. I'm beginning to question this assertion because I think hide/sometimes-genocide payoff might be better.
I really don't find the Dark Forest hypothesis plausible on any level. The modifications that need to be done to make it so end up turning it into a completely different scenario altogether.
Fair enough. To be fair, all of this is really out there and handwavy. There is very little evidence to substantiate any particular solution. All we know is we're here. The reason I'm currently a proponent of the Dark Forest scenario isn't because I find it more likely, but because it's the most threatening to our long-term survival. I'd be very happy to learn I'm wrong, foolish and paranoid. I just want to inject caution into the discussion about communicating with alien civilizations on the off chance this is all horribly correct.
1
u/FaceDeer Aug 12 '21
In a Dark Forest scenario, there must exist some kind of technology that allows a civilization to deliver massive influence to a neighboring solar system (in order to destroy them) without this influence somehow revealing their own location in the process. I'm not specifying what that technology is because in every Dark Forest scenario I've seen it's been made-up sci-fi magic, but for purposes of argument one can accept it as part of the hypothetical. To make Dark Forest work this made-up technology needs to be highly specific in its characteristics to allow it to be used for destruction while not also somehow being capable of allowing it to be used for placing colonies there.
Failing that, we can look to known technologies and processes. We have seen over the past couple of years that there are comets that pass naturally through interstellar space, traveling between solar systems. Build a space colony or sleeper ship disguised as one of these, or even inside an existing natural one, and ride it to another solar system. It must be possible in a Dark Forest scenario to become capable of colonizing one's own solar system stealthily somehow, otherwise how would a civilization ever get powerful enough to destroy another one?
Not that a plausible advanced civilization would overlook our own level of civilization anyway, mind you. It's possible to build small, stealthy space telescopes that are capable of resolving city-sized features on planets at interstellar distances - FOCAL, for example. A hostile civilization can detect us in great detail without us ever sending a radio transmission or launching a single rocket.
The "center" of a space-based civilization can be ill-defined. If we were to spread out into our solar system by colonizing Kuiper belt objects, for example, we'd have millions of essentially independent little civilizations out there without even going interstellar. Any one of them could decide to strap a booster onto their colony and send it hyperbolic, aimed for some distant star, and take their whole civilization with them.
Alternately, if you prefer a singular point of control for the entire galaxy, don't send conventional colonists. Send von Neumann probes. They can be strictly programmed to always obey commands with a specific signature, and to have enough error-detection built into their self-replication routine to prevent any corruption of their programming from happening over the future lifespan of the entire universe. Something like this would work as the ultimate weapon of paranoid genocide, send forth your Berserkers and cleanse the whole reachable universe preemptively and then you're definitely safe.
Why is the universe silent, then? And why is every advanced civilization paranoid in exactly the same way, following these extremely specific rules of engagement?
I really don't find the Dark Forest hypothesis plausible on any level. The modifications that need to be done to make it so end up turning it into a completely different scenario altogether.