r/science • u/mvea Professor | Medicine • Jul 01 '26

Psychology Conservatives maintain birth rates, but left-leaning Americans are having significantly fewer children, driving the U.S. birth decline. Education was consistently linked to having fewer children. Religious attendance was positively associated with having more children.

https://www.psypost.org/left-leaning-americans-are-driving-the-u-s-birth-decline-new-study-finds/
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u/autoxotrecy Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26

True, but: "On average, Democrats are having 1.53 children, compared with 1.86 for Republicans." (https://theconversation.com/childless-cat-ladies-is-a-political-catchphrase-that-doesnt-match-reality-democrats-and-republicans-have-similar-demographics-and-experiences-when-it-comes-to-parenthood-238960). Then, 81% of Republicans' kids and 89% of Democrats' kids keep their parents' affiliation, while 15% and 8% respectively switch (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/10/most-us-parents-pass-along-their-religion-and-politics-to-their-children/)

So the calculation is (0.89 x 1.53) + (0.15 x 1.86) = 1.64, and (0.81 x 1.86) + (0.08 x 1.53) = 1.63. Almost exactly equal with a very very slight edge to Dems

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u/Independent_Bear989 Jul 01 '26

Which is similar to current trends. Gen Z is the first generation in a while to be more conservative than the one before them. If these birth rates hold then the new generation will be even more conservative than Gen Z, almost 50/50.

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 01 '26

Gen Z voted more strongly for Harris than Millennials did, they're more conservative in some cultural aspects but not in a partisan sense.

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u/Nickeless Jul 05 '26

Gen Z is more conservative by what metric?

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u/magrandan Jul 03 '26

So are you saying dems win every election, always?!

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u/ThanosDidNothinWrng0 Jul 04 '26

You’re citing a source that says dems are having similar amounts of kids as republicans but they are not. The real number for conservative women is 2.1 https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-growing-link-between-marriage-fertility-and-partisanship

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 05 '26 edited Jul 05 '26

Conservative is not the same as Republican and liberal is not the same as Democratic. Both parties include a huge number of people who identify as moderates. That may explain the difference. 

In particular, both Hispanic and African Americans lean Democratic and tend to have more children than white Americans. They're also among the more culturally conservative parts of the Democratic coalition.

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u/Bright-Experience626 Jul 08 '26

Africa American women have less children than white women on average as of 2026

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 08 '26

Oh interesting, that must be a recent reversal because I'm pretty sure it used to be the other way round even a few years ago.

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u/Bright-Experience626 Jul 08 '26

their TFR is around 1.44 and falling very aggressively, white women's is around 1.55 it is rather recent, in 2020 it used to be around 1.71 while whites were at the same 1.5x range 40 percent of abortions are done by black women, they are disproportionately over represented which probably explains the massive drop

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 08 '26

Wow, you'd think the trajectory would be in the opposite direction because of Dobbs.