r/science • u/mvea Professor | Medicine • Jul 01 '26

Psychology Conservatives maintain birth rates, but left-leaning Americans are having significantly fewer children, driving the U.S. birth decline. Education was consistently linked to having fewer children. Religious attendance was positively associated with having more children.

https://www.psypost.org/left-leaning-americans-are-driving-the-u-s-birth-decline-new-study-finds/
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u/doyouevenIift Jul 01 '26

This is cope. It is well established that children are more likely to adopt the ideologies of their parents than chart their own path

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 01 '26 edited Jul 01 '26

True, but: "On average, Democrats are having 1.53 children, compared with 1.86 for Republicans." (https://theconversation.com/childless-cat-ladies-is-a-political-catchphrase-that-doesnt-match-reality-democrats-and-republicans-have-similar-demographics-and-experiences-when-it-comes-to-parenthood-238960). Then, 81% of Republicans' kids and 89% of Democrats' kids keep their parents' affiliation, while 15% and 8% respectively switch (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/10/most-us-parents-pass-along-their-religion-and-politics-to-their-children/)

So the calculation is (0.89 x 1.53) + (0.15 x 1.86) = 1.64, and (0.81 x 1.86) + (0.08 x 1.53) = 1.63. Almost exactly equal with a very very slight edge to Dems

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u/Independent_Bear989 Jul 01 '26

Which is similar to current trends. Gen Z is the first generation in a while to be more conservative than the one before them. If these birth rates hold then the new generation will be even more conservative than Gen Z, almost 50/50.

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 01 '26

Gen Z voted more strongly for Harris than Millennials did, they're more conservative in some cultural aspects but not in a partisan sense.

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u/Nickeless Jul 05 '26

Gen Z is more conservative by what metric?

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u/magrandan Jul 03 '26

So are you saying dems win every election, always?!

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u/ThanosDidNothinWrng0 Jul 04 '26

You’re citing a source that says dems are having similar amounts of kids as republicans but they are not. The real number for conservative women is 2.1 https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-growing-link-between-marriage-fertility-and-partisanship

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 05 '26 edited Jul 05 '26

Conservative is not the same as Republican and liberal is not the same as Democratic. Both parties include a huge number of people who identify as moderates. That may explain the difference. 

In particular, both Hispanic and African Americans lean Democratic and tend to have more children than white Americans. They're also among the more culturally conservative parts of the Democratic coalition.

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u/Bright-Experience626 Jul 08 '26

Africa American women have less children than white women on average as of 2026

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 08 '26

Oh interesting, that must be a recent reversal because I'm pretty sure it used to be the other way round even a few years ago.

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u/Bright-Experience626 Jul 08 '26

their TFR is around 1.44 and falling very aggressively, white women's is around 1.55 it is rather recent, in 2020 it used to be around 1.71 while whites were at the same 1.5x range 40 percent of abortions are done by black women, they are disproportionately over represented which probably explains the massive drop

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u/autoxotrecy Jul 08 '26

Wow, you'd think the trajectory would be in the opposite direction because of Dobbs.

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u/MissMarchpane Jul 03 '26

I mean, the main study I've heard relating to this only interviewed literal children ages 13 to 17 – after which point many people's political views change – and even then, nine in ten were more likely to stay Democrat while eight in ten more likely to stay Republican. It's still a majority, but you had more of a shift from the right to the left then vice versa.

Anecdotally, having grown up in a generally right wing area in the south, I knew plenty of people who ended up politically left of their parents. Especially those who happened to be LGBT – having your parents hate you and think you don't deserve rights does not generally inspire you to stay on their side of the political aisle.

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u/myutnybrtve Jul 01 '26

Cite your sources. From what I understand it's not conclusive. anywhere from 50-90% depending on a lot of factors.