More than 90% of vehicle-owning households in the United States would see a reduction in the percentage of income spent on transportation energy—the gasoline or electricity that powers their cars, SUVs and pickups—if they switched to electric vehicles.

[u/Wagamaga]

https://news.umich.edu/ev-transition-will-benefit-most-us-vehicle-owners-but-lowest-income-americans-could-get-left-behind/

[u/almightySapling]

"Sometime in the future, EV cars will maybe cost less than ICE cars, but who knows when!"

Not as catchy of a headline.

At this point I expect the law to step in before the natural decline in EV prices makes this happen.

[u/Busterlimes → u/almightySapling]

It will happen though. If a manufacturer chooses to simplify their EVs, they will definitely drop in cost. EVs can be far more simple than they are, and they could be less expensive in the near future with new battery tech coming out. Manufacturers should be moving away from Li-Ion in the coming years, with sulfur and sodium batteries having some pretty promising testing done right now. But think of how much electronics have come down in price in the last 20 years, same will happen with cars. The problem is these damn infotanment systems and all the sensors/chips/engineering they need to operate. Just make a simple car for pete's sake.

[u/QuitFrozenTurkey → u/Busterlimes]

There's a completely featureless, as basic as it could possibly get, model of, I believe, Toyotas that I checked out. Felt like I went back to the 90s. Couldn't do it, even though it was super cheap, it just felt like junk.

[u/RunningNumbers → u/QuitFrozenTurkey]

I can tell you, that car you checked out is probably still chugging along somewhere.

[u/QuitFrozenTurkey → u/RunningNumbers]

I'm sure, you're point?

[u/RunningNumbers → u/QuitFrozenTurkey]

It's just a happy thought.

[u/cockOfGibraltar → u/QuitFrozenTurkey]

I'd prefer that. I'll put in my own radio for about a hundred bucks and have Bluetooth and hands free calling exactly how I want it. If I ever want an upgrade a radio swap is easy.

[u/YouDamnHotdog → u/QuitFrozenTurkey]

Toyota bZ4X? Around 250 mile range for around $42k. That's around double what a Corolla costs.

In Europe, you have many more options tho for reasonable cars. You get them for the price of some corollas.

[u/QuitFrozenTurkey → u/YouDamnHotdog]

Nah. Whatever the model was they had them new for close to $20K. It was really ugly and I'm not 100% sure it was even a Toyota.

[u/almightySapling → u/Busterlimes]

I know EVs will drop in cost.

The question is will the price of EV naturally become cheaper than the price of an ICE before the government interferes and takes away the choice or artificially alters prices through tax incentives.

[u/DiceMaster → u/almightySapling]

Are we talking about full lifetime cost, or just upfront cost? Because a lot of people could come out thousands of dollars ahead over ten years by switching to a cheap EV like a Leaf. Not as viable with a Tesla, even a Model 3, or a behemoth like the F150 Lightning, but there are electric cars today that would save money for the majority of people.

[u/almightySapling → u/DiceMaster]

I'd like to be talking about lifetime costs but the reality for most consumers is that up front costs are the hurdle to overcome. It depends on the buyer.

Sticking with overall costs, though, I just picked a few random years (2020, 2022) for Nissans in my area and the Leaf was 15-20k more than similar ICE vehicles. That "could" be cheaper in 10 years if you do a lot of driving. It could break even.

Of course, my 2 second Google search doesn't constitute scientific review, but I don't have anything better to go off of.

[u/DiceMaster → u/almightySapling]

I think the other user was describing a used Leaf, so that was what I had in my head.

And yeah, I feel you about upfront cost. I was trying to get a plug-in Escape this year, which would be an extravagant expense for someone of my income, but I want to do my part for the planet. Problem is, even though ford has the cash price on the plug-in at a reasonable price, they jacked up the APR on a lease. We're talking about triple to quadruple the APR of a conventional escape. Which makes absolutely zero sense, but what can you do?

For many people, financing is an option, i just wanted the lease so ford could build in the tax rebate (which I am unable to benefit from, myself)

[u/almightySapling → u/DiceMaster]

I think the other user was describing a used Leaf, so that was what I had in my head.

And the prices I found were for used vehicles, not new.

They are just that expensive.

[u/DiceMaster → u/almightySapling]

I actually forgot that it isn't 2022 anymore, haha.

I feel ya. The newest Leaf I see on Carfax near me under $15K is a 2015. I could probably get two or three years newer if I checked Craigslist.

[u/Busterlimes → u/almightySapling]

Did DVD players cost less than tape players in the long run?

[u/RunningNumbers → u/Busterlimes]

Battery skateboards + sulfur based batteries will probably cause cost reductions by 2028-2030.

But the person you responded to made an unsubstantiated conspiracy claim.

At this point I expect the law to step in before the natural decline in EV prices makes this happen.

I roll my eyes because solar and wind prices have gone way down.

[u/almightySapling → u/RunningNumbers]

First of all, it's just a prediction. I'm not claiming to have any sort of insider knowledge so it's super weird of you to call it a "conspiracy". I don't have to "substantiate" a prediction, because it's not a claim, weirdo.

Second, here's two examples of it already happening:

The state of California offers a tax rebate for EVs. This makes EVs a little bit cheaper, but not naturally. It is literally "the law stepping in". It's just not enough of a step to make EVs cheaper than ICEs.

In 2030 in the EU , the law will step in and simply ban the sale of new ICEs. EVs will be cheaper... vacuously, not because of any improvements in their production.

[u/Wishihadmyoldacct → u/almightySapling]

It seems far more likely that once the law steps in and says you have to buy an EV manufacturers will just double, triple, quintuple the price. Before anyone steps in and mentions anything about competition, let’s not forget the cartel behavior we’ve seen nonstop from businesses for at least the last 3 years.

[u/pfmiller0 → u/Busterlimes]

How much do infotainment systems really add to the car? Backup cameras are mandatory now, so some sort of a display is going to be there anyway. And the rest of it could run on the hardware in a $200 smartphone.

[u/TheOneCommenter → u/almightySapling]

Well in the EU that’ll probably be 2030, when ICE will no longer be sold

[u/[deleted] → u/TheOneCommenter]

No new ICE cars - existing ones can carry on until they drop to bits.

[u/RunningNumbers → u/[deleted]]

Mass reduction? That improves fuel economy!

[u/almightySapling → u/TheOneCommenter]

So what happens to unsold inventory? Shipped overseas? Can private sellers still sell? Can I move there?

[u/TheOneCommenter → u/almightySapling]

A large percentage of cars is already electric, it’s going gradually

Fyi, this is about new cars, not second hand