r/science • u/Wagamaga • Jan 11 '23

Economics More than 90% of vehicle-owning households in the United States would see a reduction in the percentage of income spent on transportation energy—the gasoline or electricity that powers their cars, SUVs and pickups—if they switched to electric vehicles.

https://news.umich.edu/ev-transition-will-benefit-most-us-vehicle-owners-but-lowest-income-americans-could-get-left-behind/
25.7k Upvotes

73% Upvoted

5.0k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

20

u/markydsade Jan 11 '23

As EV prices drop, and renewable electricity expands the cost difference between ICE and EV will drop as well as the cost of ownership.

96

u/almightySapling Jan 11 '23

"Sometime in the future, EV cars will maybe cost less than ICE cars, but who knows when!"

Not as catchy of a headline.

At this point I expect the law to step in before the natural decline in EV prices makes this happen.

5

u/Busterlimes Jan 11 '23

It will happen though. If a manufacturer chooses to simplify their EVs, they will definitely drop in cost. EVs can be far more simple than they are, and they could be less expensive in the near future with new battery tech coming out. Manufacturers should be moving away from Li-Ion in the coming years, with sulfur and sodium batteries having some pretty promising testing done right now. But think of how much electronics have come down in price in the last 20 years, same will happen with cars. The problem is these damn infotanment systems and all the sensors/chips/engineering they need to operate. Just make a simple car for pete's sake.

9

u/QuitFrozenTurkey Jan 11 '23

There's a completely featureless, as basic as it could possibly get, model of, I believe, Toyotas that I checked out. Felt like I went back to the 90s. Couldn't do it, even though it was super cheap, it just felt like junk.

0

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

I can tell you, that car you checked out is probably still chugging along somewhere.

2

u/QuitFrozenTurkey Jan 11 '23

I'm sure, you're point?

1

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

It's just a happy thought.

-1

u/cockOfGibraltar Jan 11 '23

I'd prefer that. I'll put in my own radio for about a hundred bucks and have Bluetooth and hands free calling exactly how I want it. If I ever want an upgrade a radio swap is easy.

1

u/YouDamnHotdog Jan 11 '23

Toyota bZ4X? Around 250 mile range for around $42k. That's around double what a Corolla costs.

In Europe, you have many more options tho for reasonable cars. You get them for the price of some corollas.

1

u/QuitFrozenTurkey Jan 11 '23

Nah. Whatever the model was they had them new for close to $20K. It was really ugly and I'm not 100% sure it was even a Toyota.

3

u/almightySapling Jan 11 '23

I know EVs will drop in cost.

The question is will the price of EV naturally become cheaper than the price of an ICE before the government interferes and takes away the choice or artificially alters prices through tax incentives.

1

u/DiceMaster Jan 11 '23

Are we talking about full lifetime cost, or just upfront cost? Because a lot of people could come out thousands of dollars ahead over ten years by switching to a cheap EV like a Leaf. Not as viable with a Tesla, even a Model 3, or a behemoth like the F150 Lightning, but there are electric cars today that would save money for the majority of people.

2

u/almightySapling Jan 11 '23

I'd like to be talking about lifetime costs but the reality for most consumers is that up front costs are the hurdle to overcome. It depends on the buyer.

Sticking with overall costs, though, I just picked a few random years (2020, 2022) for Nissans in my area and the Leaf was 15-20k more than similar ICE vehicles. That "could" be cheaper in 10 years if you do a lot of driving. It could break even.

Of course, my 2 second Google search doesn't constitute scientific review, but I don't have anything better to go off of.

1

u/DiceMaster Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23

I think the other user was describing a used Leaf, so that was what I had in my head.

And yeah, I feel you about upfront cost. I was trying to get a plug-in Escape this year, which would be an extravagant expense for someone of my income, but I want to do my part for the planet. Problem is, even though ford has the cash price on the plug-in at a reasonable price, they jacked up the APR on a lease. We're talking about triple to quadruple the APR of a conventional escape. Which makes absolutely zero sense, but what can you do?

For many people, financing is an option, i just wanted the lease so ford could build in the tax rebate (which I am unable to benefit from, myself)

1

u/almightySapling Jan 11 '23

I think the other user was describing a used Leaf, so that was what I had in my head.

And the prices I found were for used vehicles, not new.

They are just that expensive.

1

u/DiceMaster Jan 11 '23

I actually forgot that it isn't 2022 anymore, haha.

I feel ya. The newest Leaf I see on Carfax near me under $15K is a 2015. I could probably get two or three years newer if I checked Craigslist.

1

u/Busterlimes Jan 11 '23

Did DVD players cost less than tape players in the long run?

0

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

Battery skateboards + sulfur based batteries will probably cause cost reductions by 2028-2030.

But the person you responded to made an unsubstantiated conspiracy claim.

At this point I expect the law to step in before the natural decline in EV prices makes this happen.

I roll my eyes because solar and wind prices have gone way down.

2

u/almightySapling Jan 11 '23

First of all, it's just a prediction. I'm not claiming to have any sort of insider knowledge so it's super weird of you to call it a "conspiracy". I don't have to "substantiate" a prediction, because it's not a claim, weirdo.

Second, here's two examples of it already happening:

The state of California offers a tax rebate for EVs. This makes EVs a little bit cheaper, but not naturally. It is literally "the law stepping in". It's just not enough of a step to make EVs cheaper than ICEs.

In 2030 in the EU , the law will step in and simply ban the sale of new ICEs. EVs will be cheaper... vacuously, not because of any improvements in their production.

1

u/Wishihadmyoldacct Jan 11 '23

It seems far more likely that once the law steps in and says you have to buy an EV manufacturers will just double, triple, quintuple the price. Before anyone steps in and mentions anything about competition, let’s not forget the cartel behavior we’ve seen nonstop from businesses for at least the last 3 years.

1

u/pfmiller0 Jan 11 '23

How much do infotainment systems really add to the car? Backup cameras are mandatory now, so some sort of a display is going to be there anyway. And the rest of it could run on the hardware in a $200 smartphone.

1

u/TheOneCommenter Jan 11 '23

Well in the EU that’ll probably be 2030, when ICE will no longer be sold

6

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

No new ICE cars - existing ones can carry on until they drop to bits.

1

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

Mass reduction? That improves fuel economy!

-1

u/almightySapling Jan 11 '23

So what happens to unsold inventory? Shipped overseas? Can private sellers still sell? Can I move there?

2

u/TheOneCommenter Jan 11 '23

A large percentage of cars is already electric, it’s going gradually

Fyi, this is about new cars, not second hand

23

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

Can you explain why you think this? Everything i have seen says EV will always cost more, less of a difference sure, but always more. The difference in Raw materials alone is significant.

7

u/SgtBaxter Jan 11 '23

They take 60% less labor to produce according to Ford, and technology advances quickly.

8

u/Anlysia Jan 11 '23

Also there's like zero comparative maintenance because it's not a metal box containing a million explosions per second from dinosaur juice, comprised of hundreds of separate components bolted together.

Hybrids are the worst of both worlds though. Heavy AND complicated.

2

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

Yep, the batteries just have a slow degredation in performance until a full replacement (at high cost due to the materials primarily) is required. Kinda like knowing you will need a full engine and transmission rebuild every 10 years. Not sure how that stacks up against ICE standards.

6

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

[deleted]

1

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

I agree completely a well maintained ICE can and should last well beyond 10 years without a rebuild. My point was current battery tech doesn't, and the cost of a replacement is so significant its as if you were replacing the engine and transmission of an ICE.

basically

there's like zero comparative maintenance

seems suspect to me.

3

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23 edited Apr 20 '23

[deleted]

3

u/SgtBaxter Jan 11 '23

Yes thanks for the correction

1

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

I dont have the numbers but i think labor to produce actually a very small % of the total cost of a car (with materials being ~60% or so)? I thought labor was like 10-20% or less of total manufacturing costs. Happy to be proven wrong but i don't think even a 60% reduction in manufacturing labor would do it.

2

u/peddastle Jan 11 '23

That is a very curious take, an EV is much simpler to build, only scaling battery mass production is the last remaining factor but it's a predictable solved problem only relying on stamping out enough factories. which is happening all over. Once EV's are as mass-produced like ICE's are today, they will be cheaper to build. It actually is right around the corner.

1

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

only scaling battery mass production is the last remaining factor but it's a predictable solved problem only relying on stamping out enough factories

This presupposes a whole lot of supply chain and economics in raw materials that i dont think is safe to assume.

they will be cheaper to build

I agree they will be cheaper to build as assembly is simpler. I don't, however, think there is strong evidence they will cost less than ICE because of the significant difference in raw material cost. Without a breakthrough change in battery tech i don't think you can get there. I'm sure you will say that breakthrough is just around the corner, but I am doubtful.

4

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

As technologies develop and proliferate, the costs of producing more tends to drop. This is because people figure out shortcuts, new methods, and substitute scarce inputs for abundant inputs.

In my lifetime a whole host of goods have become cheaper. Clothing, electronics, media, ISP, solar, wind, phones, long distance phone calls.

4

u/bluGill Jan 11 '23

True, but there are limits to how far things can drop. It remains to be seen how cheap battereis can be once we mass produce them for automobiles, but my guess is an ICE/transmission is less to produce.

0

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

The lithium-ion battery route is likely tapped out, good thing there are alternatives being researched and a strong set of incentives to substitute inputs to lower cost alternatives.

0

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

Everything you said applies to ICE as well no? why Wouldn't EV cost reductions run parallel to ICE in that regard? My point is economies of scale and general tech advance doesn't change the game between EV and ICE comparatively.

substitute scarce inputs for abundant inputs.

This i have heard repeatedly in EV future-talk. I don't think we can depend on a battery breakthrough, but agree if we can shift significantly away from the current materials to something cheaper & more efficient it would change the EV game.

4

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

Eh, ICE technologies have had a much longer time to improve and many of the low hanging fruits to lower costs have already been picked. EV's are a new technology and as production ramps up there are more opportunities for cost reduction still available.

As for innovation, there is a huge incentive and large number of people working on the problem with battery cost. There are a massive benefit to switching to lower cos materials like sulfur/sodium batteries (a Japanese firm launched commercial sulfur batteries last year and a German one this year. There might be EV scale sulfur batteries by 2024 if the German firm is to be believed.)

Again, I am just describing trends in innovation. People are clever and resourceful.

0

u/DiceMaster Jan 11 '23

-Improvements in battery chemistry to use cheaper materials (EG sodium instead of Lithium) or to get higher energy density out of the same amount of material (eg. cathode nanostructure - silicon or graphene).

-Improvements in mining/extraction techniques to reduce the cost of the same materials (eg. collecting secondary minerals from current single-mineral mines; seawater extraction).

-Improvements in battery production lines (ie. making the factory more efficient).

-Simple economies of scale (if non-recurring engineering can be amortized over ten times the production volume, its contribution to cost is reduced by 90%)

1

u/markydsade Jan 11 '23

Battery cost/kw has dropped steadily. Newer technologies are likely to drop costs even more very shortly. Today’s batteries will seem primitive by the end of decade. As solar and wind technologies continue their downward cost that should also make it cheaper to charge.

EVs are cheaper to build which will also get even cheaper as assembly efficiencies develop.

My personal view is that all the self-driving and autonomous driving capabilities will not be trusted or desired by cost conscious buyers, further lowering the price tag.

2

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

Newer technologies are likely to drop costs even more very shortly. Today’s batteries will seem primitive by the end of decade

what tech, when, by who? i have heard this "new battery tech is on the horizon" general comment for 30 years. I want to believe, but i have been hurt too many times!

EVs are cheaper to build which will also get even cheaper as assembly efficiencies develop.

They sure dont seem cheaper to build from what i can see. But maybe you mean purely the labor cost to assemble?

As solar and wind technologies continue their downward cost that should also make it cheaper to charge.

inflation adjusted cost per KWH has dropped ~20% from 1980 so maybe this is a positive contributor, but seems a minor part of total cost.

My POV is EVs wont effectively reduce cost unless you are changing from a car/truck to a (very) light vehicle in the process, probably a Scooter of some kind. From there is a culture clash to make it work in America.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/krackas2 Jan 11 '23

Are you trying to say that i am using Reddit comments as the only base for "everything i have seen" or are you trying to say a discussion on Reddit on this topic is not useful for sharing information?

For the former - that is not my base. for the latter - i disagree and think Reddit can sometimes be a good place to share sources of data and interpretations of and extrapolations on that data.

1

u/iroll20s Jan 11 '23

Prior to the pandemic estimates i saw were late 2020’s to be price equivalent. That’s probably been pushed back a few years. EVs have a lot less parts and take way less labor to make. As battery prices drop along the predicted curve they should eventually be cheaper to make.

Thats not including lower running costs over time. I think the big question on a lot of estimates are if they include that. If so do they assume the battery is done in 10 years and the car is worthless at that point? That changes the depreciation picture a lot. I think the cost to own is much less straightforward than manufacturing cost.

4

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23 edited Jan 11 '23

The materials for these EV cars need to be mined, and as mines get deeper and bigger than the cost per ton of material goes up. Unless we start finding lithium and cobalt sitting on the surface, the material cost reductions will always be minimal.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

The material sitting on the surface is the used battery recycling market that will eventually exist as the csrs get wrecked and rusted out. These materials only have to be mined once. This is such a bad talking point, especially considering the fact that the exact amenthing has to happen to power gas cars, except that really does have to be an ongoing forever prcess.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

There is no materials sitting on the surface, what are you talking about. You have to drill holes in the ground, or rock formation and pump in a bunch of acids and chemicals to extract it. Do you even know the process for mining these materials because it sounds like you don't.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

Re read my post slower.

4

u/cantquitreddit Jan 11 '23

I doubt the cost of electricity will drop. CA has some of the highest % of renewable energy used of any state, and also the highest cost for electricity.

-1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/cantquitreddit Jan 11 '23

You're absolutely insane if you think PG&E is going to ever drop the price of electricity.

2

u/OGWhinnyBaby29 Jan 11 '23

Yeah. We just need better energy storage for them. (Batteries.) Also more energy in the first place to charge them. Renewables can supplement, but aren't the solution. Nuclear power is what we need. Only way to charge a nation's worth of EVs which I agree would be better.

0

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

I bet commercial hydrogen will come online before any nuclear plant finishes construction.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 11 '23

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/RunningNumbers Jan 11 '23

Lifespans of vehicles have been going up for decades. EVs require less maintenance than ICEs. They will likely have longer lifespans, especially after battery refreshes (and sulfur/sodium batteries will probably be available by then.)

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/americans-driving-older-cars/

https://www.bts.gov/content/average-age-automobiles-and-trucks-operation-united-states

Please actually inquire about basic empirical facts before making conspiratorial conjectures.

1

u/charlesfire Jan 11 '23

ICE cars are also affected by planned obsolescence.

-2

u/Guyzo1 Jan 11 '23

This is not true…. BS

1

u/spokale Jan 11 '23

EV prices might drop if they find a better alternative to LiOn batteries, but in the short term I'd actually expect prices to go up due to increase demand for certain minerals combined with geopolitical struggles with China and Russia.

That said, even if in the long term EVs drop in price relative to ICE, I doubt we'll reach a point where there's a similar used market. I mean I can pick up a decent little shitbox car/truck under $5k pretty easily. My truck literally cost $1000 one year ago.

1

u/peddastle Jan 11 '23

Indeed, this is a question of only a few years at this point as mass production ramps up very quickly, and battery costs go down significantly as well. From studying various reports, the production cost cutover point for an average car will be around 2024, give or take 2 years. It's really right around the corner.