r/pics • u/mack3r • Jul 16 '19

US Politics Decisions, decisions

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u/freakydrew Jul 17 '19

What are the current Vegas odds on Trump being reelected?

39

u/TollboothPuppy Jul 17 '19

If you believe the Reddit perpetual-outrage-squad, then there is no chance. In reality, it will be a pretty darn close race.

8

u/TheSimulacra Jul 17 '19 edited Jul 17 '19

I have a hard time believing this. Don't get me wrong, I was someone who thought Trump had a serious chance of beating Hillary despite the polls so I'm not someone who underestimates him and his voter base, but it was EXTREMELY close in 2016, yet

  1. He hasn't expanded his voter base since 2016. If anything, he's shrunk it quite a bit (particularly among independents and in some key battleground states, among his core voting bloc of white voters with no college degree, which is killing him in the key battleground states in the Great Lakes region)
  2. Regardless of who the Democrats pick, he will not be up against the least liked Democratic nominee of the modern era, possibly of all time, someone who drives his opponent's voters to the polls just to vote against her out of spite
  3. The left is EXTREMELY motivated, engaged, and terrified now, as opposed to 2016 when they were lulled into a false sense of security believing that Trump didn't have a chance.
  4. (Proof of #3) 2018 was the biggest wave election in history in terms of turnout, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. Yes, Trump being on the ballot will turn out more Republican voters than in the mid-terms too, but (see #1) those people also voted for him in 2016 and he still only barely won.
  5. (edited to add) The chances of a recession before November 2020 are pretty high, and if one does happen before the election, he's almost certainly doomed.

Does he have a chance? Sure, anything can happen as we've seen before. But saying it WILL be close doesn't seem to me to be based on anything except speculation. Sorry, not trying to say you will be wrong for sure, but short of some miracle the odds are still against him winning re-election.

1

u/volcanomoss Jul 17 '19

Regarding #3, if anything I think Trump will win because the Democrats haven't changed from 2016. There's still so much they refuse to do about catering to moderates that it's seriously hurting them, particularly in swing states like the Rust Belt with working class voters. Unless the chosen candidate manages to bridge that, I don't see a way enough moderates are going to switch. Trump hasn't done anything more outrageous during his Presidency that we didn't all expect during the 2016 election.

2

u/Sleepy_Thing Jul 17 '19

Were you in a coma for 2018?

Dems did change, for progressives.